The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a five-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Shohei Ohtani ($10,000) Los Angeles Angels (-230) vs. Oakland A’s
Ohtani had been trading at a discount recently, with his salary in the upper $8,000 or lower $9,000 range. That’s officially over, as he’s finally priced at the five-figure level he deserves. He’s averaging nearly 27 DraftKings points per start over the last month.
Those starts all came against tougher opposition than he faces tonight. He draws the bottom-feeding A’s, who are implied for just 2.9 runs on Wednesday. That combines with the Angels’ excellent moneyline odds to give Ohtani the best Vegas data on the slate.
He also packs massive upside thanks to his 36.4% strikeout rate. Ohtani falls just short of the innings minimum to qualify as a league leader, but his rate is better than every qualified starter this season. His 16.1% swinging-strike rate is no cause for concern, and his 2.81 ERA is actually higher than his FIP, xERA, and SIERA.
Ohtani will be popular on a short slate, but it’s hard to make a case that he doesn’t justify his salary or ownership. He leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections in median and ceiling.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Blake Snell ($7,900) San Diego Padres (-333) vs. Colorado Rockies
Snell and the Padres are the heaviest favorites on the slate as they debut their new-look lineup with Juan Soto and Josh Bell against the Rockies. However, some of that line is based on the ability of Snell, who’s having a solid year.
His numbers should be better, too, as his 4.43 ERA is slightly higher than his 3.46 xERA or his 3.89 SIERA. There’s a debate over which pitching indicators measure a pitcher’s actual skill — or which is the best predictor of future ERA — but when they’re all lower than a pitcher’s ERA, it’s a good sign.
Of course, he’s also missing bats at an elite rate, with a 29.3% strikeout rate. With the Rockies as one of the league’s worst offenses when factoring out Coors Field, Snell has massive upside tonight.
He leads THE BAT’s projections for Pts/Sal while coming in third in the FantasyLabs set.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Freddy Peralta ($9,700) Milwaukee Brewers (-215) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Peralta is in a similar spot as Jacob DeGrom was yesterday: an elite pitcher returning from a long layoff against a lousy team. This time the team in question is the Pirates, who have an 83 wRC+ mark and strike out at the second-highest rate in the league.
Peralta had a strikeout rate above 30% through his eight starts this season before his injury, which has kept him out since late May. He had an xERA of 3.15 and SIERA of 3.08, though his ERA was north of four.
Just like DeGrom, he’s too expensive for his likely workload. Peralta threw 52 pitches in his final rehab outing in Triple-A, and it would be hard to see him going much past 70 or so tonight. DeGrom scored just under 20 points on only 59 pitches yesterday, though, so a useful score is not out of the question.
Additionally, on a much smaller slate, a 20-point DraftKings score is much likelier to help your lineup. While I’d prefer to pay a bit less for that limited ceiling, Peralta’s odds of getting there are reasonably strong considering his ability and the opponent.
I’ll stay away from Peralta in smaller field GPPS and cash games, but he’s worth sprinkling in some large-field tournament lineups.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
- Christian Yelich (1) ($4,800)
- Willy Adames (2) ($5,600)
- Rowdy Tellez (3) ($4,900)
- Andrew McCutchen (4) ($4,300)
- Kolten Wong (5) ($4,100)
The Brewers’ 5.2 run implied total ranks second on tonight’s slate, making them a clear top target.
They’re facing the Pirates Tyler Beede ($6,800). Beede has a very strong 3.12 ERA on the season, but his underlying metrics paint a different picture. His xERA, SIERA and FIP are all over four. Like with Snell, we can debate which of those metrics is most predictive, but they’re all telling us Beede is due for regression.
The Brew Crew are reasonably priced, coming in under $24,000 for the complete stack. Given their implied total, they’re an obvious choice for your lineups in all contest types on Wednesday.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top non-Brewers DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the San Diego Padres:
The Padres lineup is loaded following the blockbuster trade for both Soto and Bell. This stack includes three hitters with wRC+ numbers over 140 in Machado, Soto, and Bell. For context, only 20 qualifying hitters in the majors are ahead of that mark. Additionally, Croneworth and Profar are both solidly above-average bats as well.
They are also priced relatively reasonably, as they host the Rockies and Chad Kuhl ($5,000). Kuhl has xERA and ERA numbers in the mid-to-high fours and is a solidly mediocre big league pitcher. The Rockies bullpen also has the second-worst ERA in the majors.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Magneuris Sierra OF ($2,000 DraftKings; $2,000 FanDuel) Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland A’s (James Kaprelian)
Salary gets a little tight if trying to play members of the Padres and the Brewers today. That makes a minimum-priced leadoff hitter like Sierra appealing, especially given the matchup against Oakland’s James Kaprelian ($5,700).
Kaprelian’s ERA, xERA, and SIERA are all at least 4.50 coming into Wednesday’s contest. He’s also struggled a bit with walks, allowing 0.7 more BB/9 than the league average. That’s especially helpful for Sierra, a light-hitting outfielder with excellent speed. Free passes to first base increase his chances of picking up a steal, and he’s done that in two of the three times he’s been on base this season.
While rostering a career .237 hitter isn’t the most exciting proposition, we need to save salary somewhere. Sierra is an excellent option as long as he hits at the top of the lineup.
Paul Goldschmidt 1B ($6,300 DraftKings; $4,200 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs (Justin Steele)
Goldschmidt is on the other end of the salary spectrum as the most expensive hitter on DraftKings on Wednesday. He might live up to his price tag in a favorable matchup with Justin Steele ($6,700).
Goldschmidt is having arguably the best year of his storied career, with his 1.023 OPS and .332 batting average both tracking for career-highs. He’s even chipped in with five steals — not something you often see from 34-year-old first basemen.
He’s been even better against left-handed pitchers like Steele. In 2022, he has a ridiculous .463 batting average and 1.431 OPS against southpaws. His high salary should keep ownership to a reasonable level, making him an excellent tournament play.
Brendan Rodgers 2B ($4,500 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres (Blake Snell)
With Snell projecting as one of the slate’s best pitchers, interest in the Rockies bats should be pretty low. While that’s for a good reason, Rodgers is a possible exception. He’s another lefty-masher, with an .881 OPS against southpaws in his career.
That’s .190 points higher than his mark against righties, and since we’re paying based on his average production, he’s a bargain on Wednesday. That’s especially true on FanDuel, where his $3,000 salary comes with an 86% Bargain Rating.
