The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a six-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Kevin Gausman ($10,600) Toronto Blue Jays (-130) at Baltimore Orioles
Most of the top pitching talent on Wednesday is in action on the afternoon slate, leaving us with relatively slim pickings for the main evening slate. That’s most evident in THE BAT’s projections, where not a single pitcher tops an 18-point median projection, and just one is over 17.
That’s Gausman, who’s the clear No. 1 pick on the board tonight. He has an excellent 3.24 ERA — with similar ERA predictors — and ranks second in the majors in strikeout rate (among qualified starters) at 31.7%. Those are excellent numbers and well worth paying into the five figures for.
It’s not an ideal matchup, though, with Baltimore a league-average offense against righties with a below-average strikeout rate. That would be enough to have me reconsidering Gausman on a larger slate — but the lack of viable alternatives makes it easier to work around.
Gausman leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT median projections, though he is likely to come with correspondingly high ownership.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Luis Severino ($5,400) New York Yankees (-142) vs. Washington Nationals
Luis Severino’s 2023 campaign is the embodiment of the Yankees’ struggles as a whole. The once-dominant ace — still just 29 years old — is 2-8 with a 7.98 ERA through 15 appearances and is seemingly getting worse and worse with each start.
To his credit, his 4.97 SIERA is a better reflection of his actual performance, as Severino has been extremely unlucky in some key areas. The .355 BABIP against him is more than 60 points higher than his career rate, and his HR/FB ratio is almost 10% over his career mark.
Of course, those figures also reflect the hard contact he’s allowing, so it’s more than just bad luck. Still, he has a chance to turn it around today against a bad Nationals offense. Washington has an 89 wRC+ against righties this season, and their 4.0-run Vegas total is one of the lowest on the slate.
Severino is a scary play today, as he’s finished in the negatives in four of his last eight starts. However, the dearth of viable options — especially in his price range — keeps him in consideration. He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models in Pts/Sal projection.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Clayton Kershaw ($9,900) Los Angeles Dodgers (-220) at Cleveland Guardians
There’s an argument to be made that Kershaw should be the top pick on today’s slate. He has a 2.48 ERA on the season, with the best Vegas Data of any pitcher. He’s also facing a Guardians team that’s been dreadful against lefties, with a 76 wRC+ on the year.
On the other hand, there are a couple of issues. First, Cleveland is a notoriously low-strikeout team despite their overall struggles. At 18.7% against lefties, they’re the third-best offense at putting balls in play. That caps the upside for Kershaw, whose strikeout rate has been diminishing each season for the past few years anyway.
The other is the potential pitch count limit on Kershaw, making his third start following a stint on the IL. With the Dodgers in firm control of a playoff spot, there’s no reason to rush Kershaw back — though they could be trying to build his stamina for the postseason.
In his last two starts, he was limited to just five innings, which isn’t enough given his price tag and probably strikeout figure. However, if he’s extended another inning or two, he’d likely finish as the top arm on the slate. That risk makes him GPP-only for me, but I’m willing to find out in some of my lineups.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
It’s no surprise to see baseball’s top offense as our top stack once again, given their slate-leading six-run implied total tonight against the Mets. New York is starting Jose Quintana ($7,100), a lefty with a 3.03 ERA — but a 5.08 xFIP on the season.
A tough matchup with Atlanta is likely to see some of that negative regression hit for Quintana, especially given the Braves platoon splits as a team. They lead the majors with a 136 wRC+ against lefties, 15 points higher than their figure against righties.
The price tag on this Braves stack probably means rolling the dice on Severino is a necessity, but it could be worth the risk if they have another monster offensive showing. Even in lineups where I prioritize higher-priced pitching, I’ll be sure to fit a few Braves in, though.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Kyle Higashioka C ($2,400 DraftKings; $2,200 FanDuel) New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals (Mackenzie Gore)
Saving salary outside of the Braves stack — while still finding some reasonable production — will be crucial tonight. The catcher position is a natural place to look, as there are so many light-hitting options at a lower salary range.
Higashioka is my favorite of the bunch today. He leads THE BAT in Pts/Sal projection, largely thanks to his excellent platoon splits against lefties which are highlighted in the PlateIQ tool:
Max Muncy 3B ($4,700 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Guardians (Xzavion Curry)
While not exactly a salary saver, Muncy is at least a reasonably priced option. Especially on FanDuel, where he has a strong 79% Bargain Rating — and salary is generally looser to begin with.
Muncy is set to bat cleanup in the Dodgers lineup, and should have plenty of RBI opportunities with the Dodgers 5.2-run implied total. Dodgers stacks are viable overall today, especially in lineups built around Kershaw — where him getting a win bonus correlates with strong offensive production.
