The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Webb ($9,800) San Francisco Giants (-191) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are tied for the lowest Vegas total on the slate tonight, making Webb the obvious option for our top pitcher. They’ve been a middling offense against righties this season, so the fact that they’re implied for so few runs is a strong endorsement of Webb by the markets.
One that he’s earned this season, with an excellent 3.49 ERA and similar numbers in his ERA indicators. He’s also averaging nearly six and a half innings per start, an exceptional number in modern baseball. Of course, that comes at a cost.
He’s largely a pitch-to-contact pitcher, with just a 9.1% swinging strike rate. He’s outperformed that mark in strikeouts with a 24.9% figure, but it’s probable that the latter number comes down a bit. That limits his upside to an extent, especially against Arizona. They strike out at the third-lowest rate against righties.
That makes Webb a rock-solid cash game play but a questionable one for GPPs. Still, it’s a fairly thin pitching slate, so his odds of still finishing as the top arm are strong. Maybe not strong enough to justify his likely massive ownership projection, though.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Dane Dunning ($6,100) Texas Rangers (-145) vs. Chicago White Sox
There are two viable value pitchers today, with Dunning and Drew Smyly ($6,800) of the Cubs tied for the lead in Pts/Sal projections in THE BAT. Dunning holds the top spot to himself in the FantasyLabs projections, though, and I tend to agree with that view on things.
Largely thanks to the excellent matchup against the White Sox. They’ve been the third-worst lineup against right-handed pitching this season and were sellers at the trade deadline. While they mostly lost pitching in their various trades, they also sent away Jake Burger, one of just four hitters with an above-average wRC+ on their team this season.
That makes this a very winnable matchup for Dunning, who comes into the contest with a 3.28 ERA. While his underlying metrics have been considerably worse, a date with the White Sox isn’t the likeliest time for that negative regression to hit.
Dunning has limited upside with a 15.5% strikeout rate, but we don’t need huge numbers at his price point. Still, I’d lean towards Smyly in GPPs and Dunning in cash games, thanks to their profiles.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Gerrit Cole ($10,800) New York Yankees (-115) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Cole makes sense as a GPP play today, based on the assumption that an extremely difficult matchup with the Rays should keep his ownership down. Tampa is tied for the best wRC+ against righties on the season and is not generally a team we want to take pitchers against.
Cole isn’t just any pitcher, though. He’s been one of the top few pitchers in baseball for many years now, with no sign of slowing down this season. He has a 2.64 ERA in 2023 while averaging 21.7 DraftKings points per contest. His strikeout rate of 27.3% is low by his standards but still the best on the slate.
Cole’s ceiling remains as high as ever, despite the difficult matchup with the Rays. His odds of getting to his ceiling are a bit diminished, but I’d argue not as much as his ownership is suggesting. Webb is my preferred option for cash games, but for GPPs, I’d much rather find the salary to get to Cole.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
The Cubs trail only the Dodgers with their 5.9-run implied total today but are available for a massive discount relative to Los Angeles. They’re taking on Reds lefty Brandon Williamson ($6,300), who’s ERA sits at 4.48 heading into the contest — but should be much worse.
Williamson has an xERA more than a run higher at 5.70 and could very well see some of that regression hit against a talented Cubs team. Chicago has an above-average wRC+ against lefties on the season.
While it’s tempting to fade Bellinger — the most expensive part of this stack — in the lefty-on-lefty matchup, he has great splits against lefties. This season, he has a .446 wOBA and .286 ISO against southpaws, both of which lead the team.
It also makes sense to pair the Cubs stack with Smyly in GPPs, given the slight correlation between a big day at the plate and Smyly picking up the four-point win bonus.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Mookie Betts 2B/OF ($6,200 DraftKings; $4,200 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Oakland A’s (Hogan Harris)
The Dodgers are taking on A’s lefty Hogan Harris tonight with a slate-leading 6.2-run implied total. While Dodgers stacks are obviously in play, we can also use the PlateIQ tool to pick out particular hitters with a track record of mashing southpaw pitching.
While the Dodgers provide plenty of options in that regard, none have better numbers than Betts. He leads the team in both ISO and wOBA against lefties, with more than enough sample size to trust those numbers.
While he’s pricey, the cheap Cubs stack and affordable pitching options — as well as his multi-position eligibility — make it possible to fit him in lineups fairly easily.
Brandon Nimmo OF ($4,700 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) New York Mets at Kansas City Royals (Cole Ragans)
The Royals are calling up lefty Cole Ragans to start tonight in a battle of teams without much to play for at this point in the season. Ragans is unique as a southpaw, with reverse platoon splits — albeit in a limited sample size — this season.
He’s allowed a .391 wOBA to his fellow lefties, despite his solid numbers against righties. That makes Nimmo — and the rest of New York’s left-handed hitters — a viable option tonight. With many players looking to avoid lefty-on-lefty matchups, he should also fly under the radar in GPPs.
Lamont Wade Jr. 1B ($3,500 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Slade Cecconi)
The Giants are facing Slade Cecconi of the Diamondbacks, a minor-leaguer making his MLB debut tonight. However, he’s not exactly a top prospect, with a 6.38 ERA in AAA this season.
That obviously makes the Giants appealing, as further evidenced by their solid 4.7-run implied total. Wade is the probable leadoff hitter in their lineup, making him a strong value given the matchup and implied total. He’s the top-rated first basemen in our tournament model on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
