The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s main slate features eight games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Charlie Morton ($8,200) – Atlanta Braves (-210) vs. Chicago Cubs
Morton hasn’t had a great start to the season, posting an 8.04 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, and 5.5 FIP. That said, the K/9 has been at least 10 in four of the last five seasons, the walk rate was below 3.0 in the past three, and the FIP was below 3.5 in the last three seasons. Some regression should take place, and that could start on Wednesday, as the Cubs have a SO/AB of .265 with a paltry wOBA of .172. The Braves are one of the heaviest favorites on the slate, and the Cubs are projected for only 3.4 runs. There are seven Pro Trends that back Morton.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Jordan Montgomery ($7,500) – New York Yankees (-250) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Montgomery allowed three earned runs in 3.1 innings in the opener but has pitched well in the two most recent starts. He went five innings against these Orioles, not allowing an earned run and only three hits. In his most recent start, he went six innings, allowed one earned run and three hits while striking out five.
The strikeout rate is down, and the Orioles have the lowest SO/AB of .159 on the slate, but the wOBA is only .237, and they are implied for only 3.2 runs. Montgomery has eight Pro Trends in his favor.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Christian Javier ($7,000) – Houston Astros (-122) at Texas Rangers
The matchup isn’t the greatest, as the Rangers don’t strike out often and have a wOBA of .323. They are also implied for 4.2 runs. This will also be Javier’s first start of the season, so the number of pitches and innings is unknown. He’s pitched 3 and 3.2 innings in a relief role the past two games.
That said, the swinging strike rate is 12.5%, and the K/9 has been 12.96 with a 1.28 FIP. He’s projected for 88 pitches. If he gets to that number, then strikeouts and five innings pitched are within in the range of outcomes. He is currently projected to be rostered on fewer than 5% of teams.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the New York Yankees:
- DJ LeMahieu (1) ($4,600)
- Aaron Judge (2) ($5,400)
- Anthony Rizzo (3) ($5,500)
- Giancarlo Stanton (4) ($4,900)
- Josh Donaldson (5) ($4,500)
So far, in three starts, Tyler Wells has allowed a 6.7 FIP and 2.25 HR/9. The walk rate has been 4.5, while the strikeout rate has been only 6.75. The swinging strike rate has been 9.9%. Since last season, he’s been more successful against lefties, allowing a .120 ISO and striking out 31.2%. Against righties, though, the ISO is .215 while the strikeout rate is 24.1%. He’s also allowed a whopping 218 feet in terms of distance.
The Yankees have a ton of power right-handed bats. Judge has an ISO of .235 against righties, Stanton is at .249, and Donaldson is at .199. LeMahieu doesn’t have much pop, but he will bat leadoff and could score runs. Rizzo has a .240 ISO, and he’s coming off a three-homer game yesterday.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by median projections belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
Note: Projections may change and influence the top stacks as the day progresses.
Michael Wacha has a 1.88 ERA in 14.1 innings pitched this season, but there have been plenty of smoke and mirrors. The FIP is 4.68, BABIP is only .114, and he’s stranded 98% of runners. The strikeout rate has only been 7.53 while the walk rate has been 4.4. Since last season, he has allowed an ISO of at least .200 to both righties and lefties, while the strikeout rate has been below 25% against both.
Against righties, Springer has an ISO of .286, Bichette is at .173, Guerrero is at .306, Gurriels is at .195, and Chapman is at .141. Gurriel has homered in two of the last three games, while Guerrero has always mashed right-handed pitching. In his career against righties, the slash is .304/.376/.538 with a .234 ISO.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Rafael Devers 3B ($4,800 DraftKings) – Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (Ross Stripling)
Since last season, Ross Stripling has allowed a .190 ISO and 41.2% flyball rate to lefties. Devers has had a .326 ISO against right-handed pitching while striking out 22.8% of the time. He was priced close to $6,000 a week ago.
Austin Meadows OF ($4,000 DraftKings) – Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (Joe Ryan)
Ryan has pitched 16 innings this season and posted a 1.69 ERA. He’s been fortunate, though, as the BABIP has only been .194 while he’s stranded 98.4% of runners. The FIP is 3.83. Since last season, he’s allowed a .235 ISO to lefties with a whopping 63.6% fly-ball rate and 231.4 hit distance.
Meadows has had an ISO of .286 with an 18.5% strikeout rate against righties since the start of last season. He’s been fortunate this year as the .327/.431/.449 slash is fueled by a .410 BABIP. That said, the strikeout rate is only 17.2%, while the ISO is .122, well below his career average of .225.
Meadows is an interesting one-off contrarian GPP play.
Jorge Polanco 2B ($4,000 DraftKings) – Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers (Michael Pineda)
Since the start of last season, Pineda has allowed a .204 ISO to lefties while striking out only 16.7%. Polanco has feasted on right-handed pitching, posting a .242 ISO and 20.5% strikeout rate.
