The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday’s main slate features 11 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Brandon Woodruff ($8,900) Milwaukee Brewers (-270) vs. Cincinnati Reds
If you rostered every starting pitcher against the Reds this season, you would probably be having a very profitable 2022. The Reds offense is dreadful, averaging just 3.05 runs per game on the year (and that includes three of their 22 games being played at Coors Field).
Not only are the Reds in action again today, but the pitcher opposite them is a stud in his own right. Woodruff has had a couple of rough starts, but his overall numbers dating back to last season are rock solid. He has an ERA below 3.0 and a nearly 30% strikeout rate in that period.
Vegas is telling us everything we need to know here, though. The Reds implied total of 2.7 is the lowest I can recall seeing this season. Milwaukee is also a massive -270 favorite, which is huge by baseball standards. Woodruff is sure to be mega-chalk today, but we should try to save on ownership somewhere else in our lineups.
He’s the top option in median projections and a very reasonable price point today.
Michael Kopech ($9,300) Chicago White Sox (-141) at Chicago Cubs
Kopech has seen his salary rise all the way from $5,600 (April 10th) to over $9,000 in both his last start and today. That speaks to how solid he’s been — and his popularity. DraftKings generally takes ownership into account when pricing players for their next appearances. It’s for good reason he’s been popular, though, as he’s posted positive Plus/Minus scores in three of his four starts this season.
Today he’s taking on the cross-town rival Cubs. The Cubs have an implied total of just 3.3 runs, so betting markets are clearly on the side of Kopech here. Dating back to last season (roughly 80 innings total), he has very strong numbers, with a 34% strikeout rate while allowing hard contact only 25% of the time.
The big drawback with Kopech is the limited length of his starts. He’s yet to pitch more than five innings in a start this season, while he mostly worked as a reliever last season. Hopefully, the White Sox are ramping him up for a bigger workload, but it could be that the plan is to limit his pitch count.
Regardless of longevity issues, he’s still very strong play today. I’ll probably avoid him in GPPs, given the somewhat limited upside provided by his short starts. Additionally, he should be one of the slate’s more popular pitchers. A Kopech-Woodruff pairing makes a lot of sense for cash games, though.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Cristian Javier ($6,800) Houston Astros (-153) vs. Seattle Mariners
Javier narrowly trails Woodruff and Kopech in Pts/Sal projections for today’s slate while coming in significantly cheaper. He has equally strong Vegas data, though, with the Mariners implied for less than four runs and the Astros as moderate favorites.
Javier has seen each of his appearances this season increase in length, throwing five innings in his last appearance. Prior to that, he threw just seven innings across three relief appearances, despite not allowing a run. At Javier’s price point, making it five innings or longer — and being eligible to get the win — is a crucial line.
As long as he’s used as a true starter again — as opposed to being an opener — he’s a solid play today. He has a strikeout rate over 30% dating back to last season, to go with a SIERA of under four. The Mariners aren’t an especially difficult matchup either. Javier is expected to garner minimal ownership, making him viable as both a cash game salary saver and a contrarian GPP option.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Julio Urias ($8,400) Los Angeles Dodgers (-141) vs. San Francisco Giants
Urias is another pitcher who has split time between relief/opener duties and as a true starter in his career. He seems to be locked in as a true starter this season, though, throwing 16 innings across his last three starts. He’s been lights out in that span, allowing just two earned runs and 10 baserunners.
Still just 25 years old despite making his major league debut in 2016, there’s reason to believe the best is still yet to come for Urias. He has better stuff than his 26% strikeout rate would imply. He also has a solid matchup with the Giants, who have an OPS of just .609 as a team against left-handed pitching.
Urias is outside of the top three most popular pitchers on today’s slate but has the upside to finish with the best overall score. He’s a solid GPP option to pair with Woodruff or Kopech.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- Connor Joe (1) ($5,600)
- Charlie Blackmon (2) ($4,900)
- Randall Grichuk (3) ($4,800)
- CJ Cron (4) ($5,300)
- Ryan McMahon (5) ($4,600)
With the Rockies at home, it’s not a surprise to see them showing up as the best overall stack by tournament rating in the FantasyLabs Model. They’re implied for a slate-leading 5.9 runs today as they take on the Nationals’ struggling starter Erick Fedde ($7,300).
Fedde comes into the game with an ERA of 6.0 on the season, a number he could see rise today. He’s struggled with left-handed hitters, in particular, allowing them a .359 wOBA dating back to the start of last season. Blackmon and McMahon are both lefties in this stack.
There are also viable pivots to get more left-handed hitting in this stack. Catcher Dom Nunez ($3,800) is expected to bat ninth and could be part of wrap-around Rockies stacks. You could also go with outfielder Sam Hilliard ($3,100) in the six spot. Both players will save you salary compared to the one through five stack and should come in at reduced ownership.
Despite the home matchup, ownership projections are fairly reasonable on the Rockies in general, though. If you can find the salary, they’re an excellent choice for GPPs.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by projected Plus/Minus belongs to the Washington Nationals:
The other team hitting at Coors also makes an appearance as a top stack. The Nationals lead the slate in THE BAT’s projections for Plus/Minus. Plus/Minus is a metric better suited for cash games, as it relates a players likely performance to how players at their salary normally perform but doesn’t take into account upside.
This one is a bit awkward, going 1-2-3-6-8. However, when we’re looking for cash game stacks, the correlation of our stacks/lineups are less important.
Washington is taking on German Marquez ($7,100) of the Rockies, who has solid numbers dating back through last season. They’re still implied for 4.9 runs, though, the most of any road team on the slate. They’re also significantly cheaper than the Rockies stack, which will come in handy if trying to fit two pricier pitchers in your cash game lineup.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Spencer Torkelson 1B ($2,600 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Bryse Wilson)
The Tigers are implied for 4.7 runs at home against the Pirates today. That says a lot about how bad Wilson has been since Detroit is averaging only 3.19 runs (27th in the MLB) on the season. Wilson’s SIERA and ERA are both well over five, so this is an exceedingly good matchup for Tigers bats.
That would be good news for the Tigers’ top prospect Torkelson, who’s struggled to start his major-league career. The rookie is hitting just .190 so far on the season, though three of his 12 hits have been home runs. He’s been somewhat unlucky, though, with a .257 BABIP that should end up somewhere around .290 based on his (below-average, but not terrible) speed.
He leads first baseman in the FantasyLabs projection set for projected Plus/Minus on the day. His teammate, shortstop Javier Baez ($4,500), also leads his position in median projection, so Tigers mini-stacks could be a viable option. Just keep an eye on the weather. It’s expected to rain most of the day in Detroit (it’s currently raining as I write this, less than 10 miles from Comerica Park) but should clear up by game time.
Jose Altuve 2B ($4,600 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners (Chris Flexen)
Altuve made his return to action yesterday, having missed roughly two weeks with an injury. While it wasn’t a spectacular debut — scoring just two DraftKings points via a walk — he should continue to round into form. We’re getting Altuve at a steep discount thanks to the injury, as his salary usually sat in the high-$5,000 range prior to missing time.
It will jump back up as soon as he strings together a few good games, so it’s better to be early on Altuve rather than late. I wouldn’t trust him for cash games yet, but that’s exactly the kind of chance I want to take on a player for GPPs. Especially in a good matchup. Seattle’s Flexen has a 4.67 SIERA dating back to last season. Altuve trails only Trevor Story ($4,800) in median and ceiling projections among second basemen.
Mookie Betts ($5,600 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers (Carlos Rodon)
Betts and the Dodgers have an extremely difficult matchup in Rodon of the Giants. Los Angeles is implied for just 3.6 runs, well below their season average of 4.86. However, Betts is currently projected for sub-2% ownership. That makes him an interesting leverage play for today’s slate.
It’s hard to avoid players of Betts caliber at such low ownership, even if they are slightly overpriced for their likeliest outcome. The Dodgers could fail to live up to expectations, but a couple hits or a steal from Mookie would still make him a solid play on the slate. It’s a pure game-theory decision, but I’ll try to find some Betts exposure for my tournament lineups tonight.
