The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a fifteen-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Carlos Rodon ($10,400) San Francisco Giants (-197) vs. Detroit Tigers
There’s a handful of top arms on Tuesday’s slate, but only one of them is matched up against the Tigers. That’s Rodon, who Vegas has implied for a slate-low 3.0 runs.
It’s not just the Tigers’ futility that makes Rodon such a strong play. He ranks fifth among qualified starters in strikeout rate on the season and has an excellent 3.15 SIERA. He leads our K Prediction by more than a full strikeout over the next best option.
This game being in San Francisco is another boost to Rodon. The Park Factor is a perfectly average 50, but the Weather Rating leads the slate thanks to cool predicted temperatures in the Bay.
Rodon is the clear top option tonight, leading both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection systems in median, ceiling, and floor projections. His ownership projections also lead the slate, but with 15 games on the board, no one pitcher should come in too heavily owned. He’s a great play in all contest types.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Patrick Corbin ($5,300) Washington Nationals (-122) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Corbin has been pretty awful in 2022, struggling to a 6.60 ERA. Though he’s just 32 years old, his ERA has climbed in each of his four seasons with the Nationals. There’s a chance he’s totally washed at this point in his career despite not being all that old.
However, there are bright spots as well. His SIERA is more than two runs lower than his traditional ERA, checking in at a serviceable 4.40. His .367 BABIP against is unsustainably high, as is his 15.7% HR/FB ratio. None of which is to say Corbin has been good, but he’s nowhere near as bad as some of his numbers suggest.
He has also turned in a handful of solid starts this season. His odds of doing that are considerably higher tonight against a Pirates team that ranks bottom three in both wOBA and wRC+. They’ve been worse against lefties than righties, with a 25.4% strikeout rate.
With plenty of high-priced arms and stacks on the slate, rostering the very cheap Corbin has some appeal. He wouldn’t need a massive score to help your lineup, and both projection systems have him as the Pts/Sal leader on Tuesday’s slate.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Zack Wheeler ($10,800) Philadelphia Phillies (-120) vs. Atlanta Braves
Wheeler’s numbers on the season are eerily similar to Rodon’s. Rodon ranks fifth in the majors in strikeout rate, with Wheeler coming in seventh. Wheeler has the slightly better SIERA and slightly worse ERA, but both figures are extraordinarily close.
Of course, Wheeler has a much more difficult matchup tonight against Atlanta. The Braves are a top-10 lineup in the big leagues and implied for 3.7 runs on Tuesday. While that’s still a solid run total for Wheeler, it’s clearly worse than Rodon’s.
That makes Wheeler an interesting tournament option. He’s the slate’s most expensive pitcher, making him inferior to Rodon on paper. On the flip side, that should keep his ownership way down.
Our FantasyLabs models expect Wheeler’s ownership to be roughly half that of Rodon’s. He trails only Rodon in median projections in the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections. While I’ll be avoiding him in cash games, he’s worth a look for large-field GPPs.
Robbie Ray ($9,500) Seattle Mariners (-178) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Ray is another interesting pivot from Rodon, though at a price point where one could theoretically play them together. That’s a ton of salary on pitching, but it would lead to a very unique GPP build tonight.
Ray has numbers approaching Rodon’s and Wheeler’s on the season, with a 26% strikeout rate and 3.67 SIERA. Unlike Wheeler, he also has an excellent matchup, with the Orioles implied for just 3.3 runs.
The Orioles are nowhere near as bad as the Tigers, but they’re still a bottom-tier offense this season. That makes Ray an appropriately priced pivot to Rodon: Not quite as good of a pitcher, slightly more difficult matchup, but $900 cheaper.
He’s also expected to come in at roughly half the ownership of Rodon. That makes him my preferred GPP pivot, and I’ll also toy with some Rodon/Ray lineups with some cheap stacks around them. Ray trails only Rodon and Wheeler in median and ceiling projections in both systems.
Sean Manaea ($9,300) San Diego Padres (-115) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Manaea — along with Ray and Wheeler — round out the second tier of pitchers on today’s slate. All three have the upside to end up as the highest scoring option, but none have the clear case that Rodon does. Like the other two, Manaea is expected to come in at roughly half of Rodon’s ownership, keeping him in the GPP conversation.
Manaea also has very strong numbers this season, with a 25.5% strikeout rate and SIERA and ERA numbers below four. He hasn’t been as dominant as Ray or Wheeler, but he’s been close.
He also has the best matchup of the trio, with Arizona ranking bottom five in both wOBA and wRC+. The Diamondbacks have been even worse against left-handed pitching on the year, with slightly lower marks in both metrics.
Manaea is also the cheapest of the three, though the $200 savings from Ray probably doesn’t help much. He ranks just below Ray in the FantasyLabs projections while coming in slightly lower in THE BAT’s.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Dodgers:
- Trea Turner (1) ($6,100)
- Freddie Freeman (2) ($5,900)
- Will Smith (3) ($5,700)
- Max Muncy (4) ($4,900)
- Justin Turner (5) ($4,700)
The Dodgers were on the losing end of a three-hit complete-game shutout last night, one of the more shocking events of the season. Despite such a disappointing performance, high ownership resulted in their salaries climbing even higher today, with each of their hitters coming in at $100 or $200 more than last night.
With that said, they’re still a tremendous play. Kyle Freeland ($6,200) is far from an intimidating matchup, with a 4.71 SIERA and 15.1% strikeout rate. It seems unlikely that the Dodgers get completely shut down two games in a row at Coors, and Vegas has them implied for nearly seven runs.
Freeland is a lefty, giving extra appeal to certain Dodgers hitters. Trea Turner has particularly strong platoon splits from this stack. No. 9 hitter Hanser Alberto ($3,100) could also be a sneaky pivot. He’s hit .325 in his career against southpaws and helps save on both salary and ownership.
Of course, the hope is Freeland is chased early from this one, making lefty/righty matchups less important. The Dodgers are the smart bet to lead the slate in scoring tonight, with another letdown highly unlikely.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling (outside of the Dodgers) belongs to the Blue Jays:
As we saw last night, the “can’t miss” stack sometimes does, making Toronto an interesting pivot. Their 5.2 implied runs trail only the Dodgers, as they host the Red Sox and starter Michael Wacha ($7,800).
Wacha has a 2.34 ERA on the season but is due for some major regression. His SIERA is more than two runs higher, and he has just a .227 BABIP against. Those numbers aren’t likely to hold, with the red-hot Blue Jays getting a crack at “fixing” them tonight.
Toronto is averaging nearly seven runs per contest over the last eight games, with no signs of slowing down. They’re somewhat cheaper than the top Dodgers bats as well, with $1,400 in savings.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Yonathan Daza OF ($2,700 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw)
Daza is another route towards getting some exposure to Coors Field. His DraftKings salary is exceptionally cheap, considering he’s expected to hit second in the Rockies lineup. While the matchup with Kershaw isn’t ideal, Colorado is still implied for 4.8 runs.
He also has solid numbers in his career against lefties, with a .307 batting average. Daza doesn’t pack a ton of power, but getting on base a couple of times would be enough to pay off his salary. He represents some much-needed savings on Tuesday. His projected Plus/Minus is over +2.00 in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections.
Mike Trout OF ($6,400 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel) Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox (Johnny Cueto)
Finding the salary to pay up for Trout is tricky today, which is what makes him a good GPP play. He leads all outfielders (and non-Dodgers) in the FantasyLabs projections for median and ceiling while trailing only his teammate Shohei Ohtani ($6,300 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel) in THE BAT’s.
Trout is my preferred option of the pair on DraftKings, as he’s been the far better hitter on the season. The salary gap is slightly wider on FanDuel, though, making Ohtani the better choice.
Josh Smith 3B ($2,400 DraftKings; $2,200 FanDuel) Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals (Jonathan Heasley)
The Royals Jonathan Heasley ($5,500) is one of the more attackable pitchers on Tuesday, with a SIERA over five in both of his MLB seasons. Texas is implied for five runs, and Smith is set to leadoff, making his salary an extreme bargain.
Smith has just ten big-league games under his belt but is hitting .292 with a .485 OBP. He hasn’t shown much pop yet, with just one extra-base hit, but he has stolen two bags. He had 13 home runs in the minors last year across 78 games at three levels, so while he’s not exactly a power hitter, he can leave the yard occasionally.
We don’t need him to at a near-minimum salary, though. As long as he ends up hitting leadoff, he’s a great value tonight. His projected Plus/Minus leads all hitters in the FantasyLabs projections on DraftKings.
