The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 12-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Corbin Burnes ($9,200) Milwaukee Brewers (-156) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Brunes is expected be the most heavily owned pitcher on the slate tonight, but for good reason. He’s having a rock-solid season, has an above-average matchup, a reasonable price tag, and excellent Vegas data to back it all up. He also provides penty of upside, with the highest K prediction on the slate.
Let’s start with his numbers. Burnes has a 3.49 ERA, with a 3.34 xERA to back it up. While his 25.4% strikeout rate leaves a bit to be desired, he topped 30% in each of the past three seasons. At just 28 years old, it’s unlikely he’s suffering from a skill decline, so he should continue to push his numbers back toward his career average throughout the season.
He’s also taking on a Reds team with a below-average 97 wRC+ and a slightly above-average strikeout rate against righties. It’s not a perfect matchup, but certainly, not one to scare us off of a pitcher with Burnes’ ability. Cincinnati is implied for just 3.7 runs, which tells you a lot about what betting markets think of Burnes’s chances tonight.
He ranks second in median projection in THE BAT tonight — behind a more expensive option — while leading the FantasyLabs models.
He’s a solid play for all contest types, even at his elevated ownership.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Alex Cobb ($7,600) San Francisco Giants (-275) vs. Oakland A’s
It certainly appears that chalk will be forming around a trio of pitchers tonight, with Cobb coming in as the cheapest option of the three. He’s a screaming value tonight, with an outstanding matchup against the pathetic A’s lineup.
Oakland ranks 26th in wRC+ against righties, but has a higher strikeout rate than any of the teams behind them, making them arguably the best team to pick on. Especially for a pitcher like Cobb, who does a good job in run prevention but has just a 21.1% strikeout rate.
The hope is that he’ll continue to keep runs off the board — a hope supported by betting markets, who have Oakland implied for just 3.1 runs — while picking up a couple extra strikeouts thanks to the matchup. His 5.81 K prediction is solid but not spectacular, but would certainly be a good number relative to his salary.
He’s an excellent cash game choice tonight, though I’ll probably avoid him in GPPs. The combination of his projected ownership and somewhat low price tag make him not worth it there unless going way off the board elsewhere in your lineup.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Blake Snell ($10,000) San Diego Padres (-275) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Snell is by far my favorite GPP play of the night — assuming ownership projections more or less hold steady — thanks to his massive upside. He’s striking out more than 30% of opposing hitters this season, with a swinging strike rate that suggests it could be even higher.
He’s not a “high ceiling low floor” type play either, thanks to his 2.67 ERA. While he’s likely due for some negative regression in that department, his xERA is still a very strong 3.91.
From a matchup standpoint, the Pirates against lefties is nearly identical to the Reds against righties, putting him in the same boat as Burnes. Pittsburgh also has a 97 wRC+, and both teams have strikeout rates within 0.2% of each other. All of which points to Snell being just as good of a play as Burnes, but he’s projecting for less than half the ownership.
This is a classic “pay up to be contrarian” spot, as the extra $800 in salary is more than acceptable for all of the extra ceiling Snell provides.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
Most days, there’s a stack that absolutely shocks me with how cheap they are, especially relative to their implied total. Tonight, it’s the Cubs.
They have a very solid 4.7-run implied total as they travel across town to take on the White Sox. That’s the top mark of any road team at the moment, although Atlanta and Texas are still awaiting odds, so that could change. Either way, getting the top-five hitters on the best road offense for under $4,000 per player is a massive deal.
Much of their total is a function of the matchup. They’re taking on Michael Kopech ($7,100) of the White Sox. While Kopech has been mediocre this season with a 4.29 ERA, he’s been lucky to not have an even worse number. His xERA and xFIP are both above 5.00.
If some of that regression hits tonight, the Cubs will end up looking like a huge value. They’re especially valuable as a stack if trying to pair two expensive pitchers tonight, which looks like it might be the ideal strategy as well.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
William Contreras C ($4,600 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott)
I’ve long been a proponent of playing Contreras in almost any southpaw matchup, thanks to his ridiculous splits against left-handed pitching. Now with our PlateIQ tool, it’s easier than ever to visualize just how good he’s been:
A .439 wOBA is absurdly good; only Shoehei Ohtani has posted a full-season number that strong among qualified hitters. It’s even more noteworthy for a catcher, as finding offensive production tends to be harder there.
Contreras is worth paying up for on DraftKings, but he’s an even better value on FanDuel, with a 90% Bargain Rating.
Wilmer Flores 1B ($3,400 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) San Francisco Giants vs. Oakland A’s (Ken Waldichuk)
The Giants are in a good spot tonight, with a team total above five, as they host the A’s. That makes the top of their lineup attractive both for stacking, and one-offs alike. I’m starting with Flores, who’s far too cheap for his projected No. 2 spot.
He also is hitting .295 on the season, with an excellent .892 OPS. He has plenty of power with a .529 slugging percentage, giving him uncommon upside for his price tag. The matchup with the left-handed Waldichuk is another benefit — Flores is hitting .320 off southpaws this season.
Steven Kwan OF ($3,800 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals (Zack Greinke)
Let’s try this one again. Kwan was popping in the models yesterday but let us down, failing to get on base at any point in the contest. He has an even better matchup today, though, against the shell of Zack Greinke.
Greinke has a 5.40 ERA on the season, with the Guardians implied for more than five runs tonight. Greinke has been especially bad against lefties like Kwan, with a .398 wOBA allowed. Add to that the fact that Kwan is projected to lead off for the Guardians, and all signs are pointing his direction.
