The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($10,500) New York Yankees (-305) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Two of the five qualifying starters with 30% strikeout rates are pitching today, with Cole and Dylan Cease ($9,700) both taking the mound. Cole stands out as the clear top choice, thanks to an ideal matchup with the Reds.
I’ve had some concerns about Cole in more difficult matchups this season, and he had a pedestrian showing his last time out against Boston. However, the Reds are not a difficult matchup. They’re a bottom-five team by wRC+ and top-five in strikeout rate.
Not a ton more needs to be said about Cole. He’s arguably the best pitcher on the slate and has the best matchup by far of anyone in that conversation. He leads the FantasyLabs and THE BAT’s projections for ceiling and will almost certainly be the most popular pitcher on the slate.
Spencer Strider ($9,800) Atlanta Braves (-165) vs. New York Mets
Strider started the season in the bullpen before transitioning to a starting role for the defending champions. While his first start was in late May, he was gradually stretched out to a full workload over a month or so. Since he’s hit his stride (pun intended), he’s been dominant.
His last three starts each lasted six innings and came against the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Reds. In those 18 innings combined, he struck out 30 while allowing just one run. Considering two of those starts came against top-10 offenses, it feels pretty safe to say Strider has some ability.
Of course, the Mets represent another difficult matchup today. We can’t expect Strider to continue to have a 0.50 ERA and 15.00 K/9 forever, particularly against good teams.
That said, Vegas is fairly strongly on the side of Strider. His Braves are moderate favorites over the Mets, who are implied for just 3.8 runs. While there are a few teams with lower marks, those pitchers (except Cole) don’t bring the strikeout upside Strider does.
He’s not quite a “safe” pick all things considered, but he’s fairly close given the Vegas data. He trails only Cole in both median and ceiling projections in THE BAT.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Glenn Otto ($5,700) Texas Rangers (-169) vs. Oakland A’s
While the top end of the pitching ranks is strong today, things get dicier when trying to find value options. Otto is perhaps the best. He’s a solid favorite against the A’s, who are implied for just 3.8 runs on Tuesday.
Oakland is baseball’s worst offense by essentially any metric, with a .602 OPS as a team on the season. Otto has struggled this season, with both his SIERA and ERA coming into Tuesday above 5.00. Still, even he could get the better of this matchup.
Otto certainly lacks the upside of the high-end options, but he doesn’t need a massive score to pay off his salary. With more expensive pitchers expected to command most of the ownership, rostering Otto could be a unique way to build. Not only will his ownership be lower, but it will allow you to roster more expensive hitters than most of the field.
Still, he’s projecting as a better play in cash games than tournaments. A score in the mid-teens for him would be enough to feel good about at only $5,700, and he’s projected north of 15 DraftKings points in both FantasyLabs and THE BAT’s projections.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Dylan Cease ($9,700) Chicago White Sox (TBD) at Cleveland Guardians
This game is the second game of a doubleheader for the White Sox, and betting lines aren’t yet available. Cease is likely to see notable changes to his FantasyLabs projections once lines are released in the late afternoon, and he’s not yet included in THE BAT’s projections.
With that said, he’s still a strong option tonight for GPPs. As mentioned in the Cole writeup, Cease is one of just five qualified pitchers with a 30% or greater strikeout rate this season. He ranks second in the league at 34.3%, with a 16% swinging-strike rate that suggests those numbers are somewhat sustainable.
Cease owns a neutral to good matchup with Cleveland, who come in as a slightly below-average team in wRC+ on the year. They do strike out at the lowest rate in the majors, which puts a dent in Cease’s ceiling to some degree. He struck out only three Guardians in his first matchup against them this season.
He’s still a solid play if ownership projections hold, given his ability. I wouldn’t expect a massive strikeout performance, but his K Prediction is third on the slate. If the slate’s most popular arms (Cole and Strider) have disappointing days, it’s not much of a stretch for Cease to lead the slate in scoring.
Kevin Gausman ($9,300) Toronto Blue Jays (TBD) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Gausman is another pitcher whose projections could shift drastically once Vegas liens come out. As it stands, he currently trails only Cole and Strider in THE BAT’s median projections while leading the pack in the FantasyLabs set.
He’s having an excellent season, with a 2.86 ERA, a 3.06 SIERA, and a strikeout rate north of 27%. His 16% swinging-strike rate is identical to Cease’s, so he’s also a candidate for some positive regression in the strikeout department.
Nothing about the matchup stands out, as the Phillies rank middle of the pack in both strikeout rate and wRC+. With Gausman’s season-long numbers coming collectively against an average opponent, we can expect his usual output for this one.
Like Cease, rostering Gausman is a bit of a bet on Strider and/or Cole disappointing. He is the cheapest of the high-end options, though. Therefore he could have similar numbers to the other top arms but still find his way into the winning lineup if the salary is put to good use elsewhere.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the San Diego Padres:
- Ha-Seong Kim (1) ($2,900)
- Jake Croneworth (2) ($3,900)
- Manny Machado (3) ($5,100)
- Luke Voit (4) ($3,400)
- Jorge Alfaro (5) ($3,400)
The Padres’ projected lineup looks slightly different today, as they’re taking on lefty Austin Gomber ($6,200) of the Rockies. What remains the same is their status as the slate’s best stack. That, of course, is thanks to their game at Coors Field.
While it wasn’t the massive performance some were hoping for, the Padres scored six runs yesterday in Colorado, belting three home runs in the process. They’re implied for an equally strong 6.3 runs tonight, with extremely reasonable salaries on the top five hitters.
Gomber is certainly not a pitcher to fear, as he carries an ERA over six into the contest. His SIERA is considerably better at 4.38 — but still not great. He has done a good job of limiting fly balls, though, with a rate below the league average.
Targeting Padres with good platoon splits against left-handed pitching makes sense if not going with the full stack. To that end, Kim stands out with significant splits, while Alfaro and Machado also fare somewhat better against southpaws.
San Diego should be chalky again, but they’ll be hard to avoid given the price tag and projected runs on Tuesday.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top non-Padres DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers have their usual high ceilings on Tuesday but could come in at somewhat lower ownership thanks to their high price tags and the game at Coors Field.
That makes them an excellent leverage option as they take on Matthew Liberatore ($6,400) and the Cardinals. Liberatore is an attractive pitcher to stack against, with an ERA approaching 5.00 and a SIERA just above it.
He’s also a lefty, which is a significant bump to certain Dodger hitters. Turner is the biggest beneficiary among those listed in this stack, with a batting average 20 points higher against lefties in his career. Projected number eight hitter Hanser Alberto ($2,700) could also be worth mixing in. He has extreme splits, with a nearly 200-point OPS bump when facing lefties.
Yesterday was a perfect example of why fading the best on-paper stack makes sense for tournaments. San Diego dominated projections and lived up to expectations with six runs scored. However, five other teams on a nine-game slate scored more runs. Considering baseball’s inherent variance, taking a swing at some less-popular options is a plus-EV tournament strategy.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Michael Taylor OF ($2,300 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers (Beau Brieske)
Taylor is currently projected to lead off for the Royals, making him an absolute steal at his current price on DraftKings. Kansas City is implied for a solid 4.5 runs against the Tigers, with Beau Brieske ($6,800) as an attractive matchup.
Brieske has a SIERA in the high fours, and while he’s been better as of late, he’s still not exactly a lights-out arm. If the Royals live up to their implied run total, it’s hard to see Taylor failing relative to his salary as the leadoff hitter.
Charlie Blackmon OF ($4,600 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres (Mike Clevinger)
I faded Blackmon yesterday thanks to a lefty-lefty matchup against Sean Manaea, and he responded with a 21-point DraftKings performance.
We don’t have to worry about the platoon splits on Tuesday, as Blackmon is taking on righty Mike Clevinger ($9,100). Clevinger is one of the slate’s better arms, but this game is at Coors Field. Blackmon is too cheap considering his spot in the lineup and production.
He’s the top-rated outfielder on both FanDuel and DraftKings in the FantasyLabs tournament model.
Javier Baez SS ($4,300 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (Kris Bubic)
I’m going to keep going back to the well with Baez against lefties, particularly with his price as reasonable as it is tonight. He hit an RBI double last night to finish with seven points, and that was in a tougher matchup. Tonight he draws Kris Bubic ($5,900) of the Royals, who carries a 6.84 ERA into the contest.
Baez is averaging a solid nine DraftKings points per game over the past month and has excellent splits against lefties. His career .886 OPS stands out, but his .931 mark in an otherwise disappointing 2022 is even more noteworthy.
Baez is famously struggling to lay off away-breaking sliders from righties. That’s not a problem with left-handed pitching, as their sliders break towards him. He should come in at minimal ownership thanks to all the strong shortstop plays on the slate, but he shouldn’t be forgotten about tonight.
Pictured above: Manny Machado
Photo credit: Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images
