The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Shohei Ohtani ($10,300) Los Angeles Angels (-184) at Oakland A’s
It’s a crowded slate for high-level arms today, with a whopping eight pitchers projected for at least 20 points in the FantasyLabs Models. Ohtani stands out above the field thanks to the strength of his matchup.
He’s taking on the A’s, who Vegas has implied for a slate-low 2.8 runs. While the Angels are only moderate favorites, that speaks more to their offensive struggles than the market’s lack of faith in Ohtani.
The biggest selling point for Ohtani is his massive strikeout upside. His 35.9% strikeout rate through 105 innings is more than any qualified starter by a decent margin. Ohtani hasn’t thrown quite enough innings to qualify, but he still ranks top-ten in total strikeouts on the season.
The combination of Vegas data and strikeout upside make Ohtani my top choice on Tuesday night. He leads THE BAT’s projections while coming in fourth in the FantasyLabs system for median and ceiling.
Shane Bieber ($9,400) Cleveland Guardians (-200) at Detroit Tigers
Bieber has the best matchup on the slate against a Tigers team with the worst baseball offense, specifically against right-handed pitching. With his price tag a bit lower than the rest of the top options, he has a ton of appeal on Tuesday.
It’s been a bit of a down year for Bieber, whose 3.39 ERA and 3.36 SIERA are both the highest since his rookie year. Similarly, his 25.1% strikeout rate is the lowest since then. However, he’s had a bit of bad luck in the strikeout department. His 14.1% swinging strike rate should translate to a strikeout rate approaching 30%.
With Detroit striking out at a top-five rate against righties, Bieber’s upside is extremely high tonight. Detroit’s implied for just 3.2 runs, so his downside is fairly limited too. He’s an excellent choice in all contest types tonight, thanks to his cheaper salary.
Bieber ranks second in the FantasyLabs and fifth in THE BAT’s projections, with neither system featuring a player both cheaper and projected for more points.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Carlos Carrasco ($8,200) New York Mets (-333) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Carrasco is the cheapest pitcher with a 20-point projection in the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT. He’s been solid this season, with SIERA and ERA numbers in the threes. While he doesn’t bring the strikeout upside of the other arms mentioned, he’s still above the league average at 23.3%.
He also has an excellent matchup with the Reds, who are implied for just 3.1 runs today. The -333 moenyline odds are more about the Mets offense than Carrasco, but it’s still a good sign for the pitcher. His chances of the four-point win bonus are the highest on the slate.
Cincinnati has just an 85 wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the season. With Carrasco’s reasonable price point, fitting him and another high-end pitcher is doable. That will be my strategy for cash games since there are more significant question marks surrounding the other cheap arms.
Tommy Henry ($5,400) Arizona Diamondbacks (-162) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Henry is a rookie left-hander set to make just his second big-league start. His first came against the Guardians, a roughly average lineup. This time, he takes on Pittsburgh, a far easier task.
The Diamondbacks being sizable favorites is a good sign for Henry. Determining young players’ true ability is difficult over a small sample size, so I prefer to trust what the market is telling me. Arizona is implied for just under four runs, which is quite the bargain for a pitcher this cheap.
Ideally, we’d get to two of the more expensive pitchers on Tuesday’s slate. There are plenty of them projecting well. However, the salary makes that a tricky proposition, so taking a swing on a lesser-known entity like Henry could be the key to unlocking the slate.
He’s too risky for my tastes in cash games, but I have some interest in him for large-field GPPs. He leads THE BAT’s projections in Pts/Sal.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Gerrit Cole ($10,500) New York Yankees (-134) at Seattle Mariners
Anytime we can get Cole at single-digit ownership, he should be strongly considered. That’s the case tonight, where the plethora of high-end starters in better matchups will draw most of the attention.
Seattle has a top-10 offense on the season but are still implied for just 3.4 runs against Cole and the Yankees. That speaks to his abilities, as Cole’s been excellent this season. He’s striking out over 30% of the batters he’s faced for the fifth consecutive season.
This game being in Seattle is also a boost to Cole. He’s somewhat of a flyball pitcher, and he’s been relatively unlucky in the HR/FB ratio department since signing with the Yankees. Seattle’s Park Factor for pitchers is a friendly 73. That’s good for second-best on the slate and is considerably more forgiving than Yankee Stadium.
He ranks third in the FantasyLabs projections for ceiling while coming in second in the BAT. The top is tightly bunched, so picking the lowest-owned option is likely the highest EV move tonight.
Carlos Carrasco ($8,200) New York Mets (-333) vs. Cincinnati Reds
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (1) ($5,100)
- Dansby Swanson (2) ($4,800)
- Austin Riley (3) ($5,300)
- Matt Olson (4) ($5,000)
- Marcell Ozuna (5) ($3,300)
The Braves are today’s top stack in the FantasyLabs tournament model, thanks to their 5.4-run implied total and relatively light ownership. That ownership discount is a function of their price tag; getting to the Braves bats is difficult with all the expensive arms on the slate.
They’re taking on Rich Hill ($6,300) in Boston. Hill isn’t the pitcher he once was, with SIERA and ERA numbers in the high-fours and a sub-20% strikeout rate. Atlanta has been a top-five offense against lefties this season, with a 115 wRC+.
That’s a solid combination, so the Braves are worth considering tonight. Thanks to recent slumps, Acuna and Ozuna are far cheaper than they’ve been most of the season, so even if you’re priced out of a full stack, rostering them is attainable.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
It’s hard to imagine a better situation for the Cardinals. They’re playing in Coors Field against a young pitcher with a 6.51 ERA over the first 47 innings of his career. That pitcher is Ryan Feltner ($6,600), and the Cardinals implied total against him is a whopping 6.4 runs.
Cardinals stacks are also fairly affordable, at least outside of Goldschmidt. Of course, it’s hard to fade the first baseman, who’s having the best year of his hall of fame career with a 1.029 OPS. He’s hitting .332 with 26 home runs and has added five steals, a rare feat for a 34-year-old first baseman.
Squeezing in as many Cardinals as possible will be a strong game plan tonight, though it’s difficult with the salary constraints. Still, their odds of hanging a big number on the Rockies will make it scary for anyone without some exposure to their hitters.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Tyler Freeman 2B ($2,000 DraftKings; $2,100 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers (Tyler Alexander)
Given all the expensive pitchers and stacks, finding some viable minimum-priced options is crucial on DraftKings. Freeman is one such option. He’s taking on Tyler Alexander ($5,000), who is the cheapest pitcher on DraftKings. That tells you all you need to know about his ability.
Freeman has just 11 big-league at-bats to his name but has an elite contact tool, according to his FanGraphs scouting report. While he will need some time to grow into his abilities, I’m willing to take a swing on him today, thanks to the matchup and his price point.
He leads all second basemen in Pts/Sal projection in the FantasyLabs Models on DraftKings.
Alec Bohm 3B ($4,100 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins (Braxton Garrett)
Bohm is another solid option for saving some salary, particularly on FanDuel. His $2,800 salary there amounts to a 79% Bargain Rating. He’s taking on lefty Braxton Garrett ($7,500) of the Marlins on Tuesday, with his Phillies implied for 4.7 runs.
The real appeal to Bohm tonight is his platoon splits. In his three-year career, he has an .878 OPS against southpaws, compared to just .665 against righties. We’re getting a far better player than his salary implies on FanDuel.
Max Muncy 3B ($4,400 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins (Joe Ryan)
The Dodgers could get lost in the shuffle today, with their standard high price tags but a solid 4.9-run implied total. Muncy is popping as the team’s best value on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
That said, I prefer him on FanDuel, where he also holds second base eligibility. With a ton of viable options at third base, the opportunity cost is steeper on DraftKings.
The whole team is really in play, though, with a non-threatening matchup against Joe Ryan ($7,700) of the Twins. Ryan has solid numbers on the season, but a 55.6% flyball rate could be trouble against the Dodgers.
