The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Aaron Nola ($10,600) Philadelphia Phillies (-139) at Arizona Diamondbacks
There are plenty of options at the top of the salary range on Tuesday, but Nola stands out among the group. The biggest reason is his strikeout rate. At 28.5% on the season, it’s the highest of any pitcher on Tuesday. Racking up Ks is important for a pitcher’s upside, especially pitchers whom we’re paying five-figure salaries for.
Nola’s run prevention numbers lag a bit behind his compatriots today, but his 3.08 ERA is still solid. He’s had a bit of an unlucky season in that regard as well, with a 2.61 xERA and 2.68 FIP heading into the contest. Vegas is giving the Diamondbacks a solid 3.6-run implied total, but of course, some of that is expected to come from the Phillies bullpen.
The real differentiating factor between Nola and his competitors today is the matchup. Arizona is one of the worst offenses in the league against right-handed pitching, with a 93 wRC+. The other top arms have quietly difficult matchups, making Nola the safer option.
Nola checks in second in the FantasyLabs median projections while leading THE BAT. His combination of high floor and upside make him a solid play for all contest types.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Lucas Giolito ($8,200) Chicago White Sox (-136) vs. Kansas City Royals
Giolito is having a very disappointing season in 2022. From 2019-2021, his highest ERA was 3.53, and his strikeout rate topped 27.9% every season This year, he has an ERA of 5.14 and a 25.3% strikeout rate.
There’s reason for optimism around Giolito, though. At just 28 years old, it’s unlikely that his skills have diminished already. He’s also been highly unlucky, with a 3.78 SIERA and 4.12 xERA, that are both much better than his ERA. He’s topped 18 DraftKings points in three of his last four starts, with the lone exception coming against the Astros.
Today’s matchup with Kansas City is a far cry from the Astros’ tough lineup. The Royals have an 89 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which ranks 25th in the majors. They’re implied for just 3.8 runs tonight, a very reasonable amount considering Giolito’s salary.
Between the positive regression and the matchup, Giolito is an underpriced option today.
He’s a strong choice for all contest types and leads (or is tied for the lead) in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs Pts/Sal projections.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
George Kirby ($8,500) Seattle Mariners (-175) at Detroit Tigers
Kirby is taking on the Tigers, who have the second-lowest implied total on the slate at just 3.3 runs. That’s par for the course for the Tigers offense, who are approaching historical levels of ineptitude. Particularly against righties, against whom they have just a 72 wRC+ while striking out at the fourth-highest rate in the majors.
Those are all good signs for the rookie Kirby, who features a fastball averaging over 95 mph. That hasn’t translated to an elite strikeout rate yet — his is currently 24.9% — but the “stuff” is clearly there for the young hurler. His overall numbers are solid, though, with a 3.32 ERA which is in line with his xERA and SIERA.
In any other matchup, his salary would be somewhat prohibitive. However, he should be well worth it against Detroit. Even better for GPPs, he’s not projected as one of the top three arms in ownership either.
He’s an excellent tournament option with some cash game appeal.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
- Christian Yelich (1) ($4,100)
- Willy Adames (2) ($5,000)
- Kolten Wong (3) ($3,100)
- Hunter Renfroe (4) ($4,000)
- Andrew McCutchen (5) ($3,700)
The Brewers have an excellent 5.2-run implied total on Tuesday, the second-best mark on the slate. They’re hosting the PIrates and Mitch Keller ($6,200), who’s been mediocre at best in 2022. Keller has an ERA of 4.50 on the season, with similar leading indicators.
The Brewers have been firing on all cylinders recently, scoring 32 runs over their last five games. Nothing about this matchup suggests that shouldn’t continue. That makes their sub-$20,000 combined salary for the first five hitters very attractive.
Lefites for Milwaukee hold some extra appeal. They have a 65 Park Factor — compared to 56 for righties — and Keller has historically done worse against left-handed hitting. Pivoting from some of the righties in this stack (Renfroe, McCutchen, Adames) to down-lineup southpaws is a solid option for building more contrarian Brewers stacks.
Either way, Milwaukee is an excellent option for tournaments and cash games alike tonight.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees have the highest implied total of any road team, as they travel to Los Angeles to take on the Angels and Mike Mayers ($5,200). Mayers has been used primarily as a reliever this season, with this set to be his second start of the year.
While he pitched five scoreless innings in his first start, his overall numbers are (generously) mediocre. He has a 4.46 ERA on the season with similar leading indicators. Those numbers came while averaging less than two innings per appearance — they aren’t likely to improve on subsequent trips through the batting order.
Relievers turned starters are always a situation I want to target, especially when facing an offense like the Yankees. New York leads the majors in home runs while ranking third in wRC+. While this game being in Los Angeles, is sub-optimal with Park Factors of 11 and 14 (left and right-handed hitters), they have the power to get out of any park.
The Yankees are expensive but could be well worth it if they hang a crooked number on the Angels. I want exposure to at least some of them — particularly sluggers Judge and Stanton — in all my lineups.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Shea Langeliers C ($3,000 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Oakland A’s at Washington Nationals (Erick Fedde)
We have an extremely limited big-league sample size on Langeliers, who has made just 49 plate appearances in the majors in his young career. Still, he projected as a plus-hitter with solid power, and he’s lived up to the latter part of that equation. Seven of his 11 hits have gone for extra bases, including a pair of home runs.
He’s a value considering his price and spot in the batting order — he’s projected to hit second in the A’s lineup. That’s a relative rarity at catcher, making him a solid play on DraftKings, where catchers are mandatory. Another rarity — the A’s are implied for over four runs tonight.
That’s another good sign for Langeliers, who’s projecting as one of the top catcher options.
He leads THE BAT’s projections for Pts/Sal while trailing only minimum-priced backstops in the FantasyLabs projections.
Andrew Vaughn 1B/OF ($3,600 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
Vaughn is having a very strong sophomore season with the White Sox, batting .291 with 14 home runs on the year. He’s fairly cheap, considering his status as the number-two hitter for the Sox, who are implied for 4.4 runs tonight. They have a solid matchup with Brady Singer ($8,900) of the Royals, who has solid numbers but isn’t quite a pitcher we want to avoid.
Vaughn having multi-position eligibility is especially important since (as usual) there are plenty of outfielders worth considering today. He’s a solid choice to give your lineups some flexibility and worth considering in both cash games and GPPs.
Luis Arraez 1B/2B ($4,000 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox (Kutter Crawford)
I’ve been on the Arraez train for a while, and he hasn’t disappointed. He’s hitting .320 with an .814 OPS this season, both numbers that generally result in a salary significantly higher than where he currently stands. Tonight’s an excellent time to take advantage of that.
The Twins are facing Boston’s struggling rookie Kutter Crawford ($5,500), who has a 5.80 ERA as a starter through 11 starts. Minnesota has a solid 4.9-run implied total, so their top-of-the-order bats are in a good position tonight. Arraez is especially appealing on FanDuel, where in addition to having a 64% Bargain Rating, he’s also eligible for third base as well.
