The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Corbin Burnes ($10,100) Milwaukee Brewers (-270) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The sky is the limit for Burnes today, as he takes on the bottom-tier offense of the Pirates. Pittsburgh is implied for just 2.9 runs, easily the lowest mark on the slate. The Brewers -270 moneyline odds also make them the second-largest favorites on the slate, giving Burnes the best Vegas data of any pitcher on Tuesday.
Burnes ranks third in the majors among qualified starters with his 32.8% strikeout rate. The Pirates strike out at the second highest rate of any team themselves, giving him a massive ceiling today. Our K Prediction on Burnes is 7.98, also easily the top mark on the slate.
On a 14-game slate, there’s a chance another pitcher edges out Burnes in the final score. However, he’s pretty obviously the best play on paper on Tuesday. I’m willing to take the heavy ownership when a pitcher stands this far ahead of the field.
Burnes leads the FantasyLabs projections in median and ceiling, largely driven by his strikeout upside.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Lucas Giolito ($6,800) Chicago White Sox (-178) vs. Kansas City Royals
Glancing at Giolito’s salary tells you everything you need to know about his year. His ERA is over five coming into Tuesday, after three consecutive seasons in the mid-threes at worst. His strikeout rate is also the lowest since 2018, though still a respectable 25.8%.
However, Giolito is a major regression candidate. His BABIP this season is .349, more than 70 points higher than his career mark. His HR/FB ratio is also elevated at 16.1%. That latter number isn’t a massive jump over his career mark of 14.6%, but it stands out relative to the league average of 11.4% in 2022.
All of the above could be explained by Giolito allowing harder contact this season, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. In fact, his hard-hit rate of 29.3% is the lowest mark of his career.
If there’s ever a time for some positive regression to come for Giolito, it might just be Tuesday. He has a matchup with the Royals, a bottom-10 offense in the majors. Kansas City is implied for a reasonable 3.8 runs, but that’s more than acceptable at Giolito’s salary.
He leads THE BAT’s projections for Pts/Sal while tying for second in the FantasyLabs set.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Cristian Javier ($8,700) Houston Astros (-230) vs. Boston Red Sox
It speaks to Javier’s ability — and perhaps the diminished Red Sox lineup — that Boston is implied for just 3.4 runs on Tuesday. Javier has excellent overall numbers on the season, with a 3.26 ERA and 33.8% strikeout rate. While those numbers are bolstered a bit by early-season relief appearances, his numbers as a starter are strong, too: 3.74 ERA and 32.6% strikeout rate.
He’s been all over the place as a fantasy option, which is ideal for GPPs. He had consecutive 45-point DraftKings games in late June/early July but has failed to top 17.46 points since then.
He appears to be fairly matchup agnostic, with his big games coming against the Yankees and Angels. He’s also struggled against the Royals and A’s, two of the worst offenses in baseball. That makes it hard to predict which Javier we will get tonight, but he’s worth the risk at $8,700.
Javier trails only Darvish and Burnes in median projection in the FantasyLabs Models and should check in with lower ownership.
Jacob DeGrom ($10,300) New York Mets (-303) at Washington Nationals
DeGrom hasn’t pitched in nearly 13 months, as he missed the second half of last season with an elbow injury and suffered from a stress reaction on his shoulder in March. He’ll be making his return to the mound on Tuesday night against the Nationals, as a massive favorite.
It’s an interesting situation for DeGrom, who threw 67 pitches in his last rehab start. He’ll reportedly land somewhere between 60 and 80 tonight, according to reports from beat reporters. That’s really not enough to justify his slate-leading salary of course, barring an extremely efficient outing.
On the other hand, his odds of record efficiency are way higher following the Nationals blockbuster trade of Juan Soto and Josh Bell to the Padres. Neither will be available for tonight obviously, nor will any of the replacements coming back from San Diego.
The Nationals have been a bottom-10 offense in the majors in 2022, with a 94 wRC+ on the season. Now they’re without their only two hitters with a wRC+ mark over the league average of 100. They’re arguably the worst offense in baseball at the moment, so DeGrom could put up a big score even in a brief outing.
He’s not projecting as likely to pay off his salary, but his ownership should be fairly limited as well. I wouldn’t include him in smaller field contests, but he’s worth a look in large field GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
- Luis Arraez (1) ($4,000)
- Carlos Correa (2) ($4,600)
- Byron Buxton (3) ($5,500)
- Jorge Polanco (4) ($4,400)
- Alex Kirilloff (5) ($2,800)
The Twins are hosting the Tigers on Tuesday, with Detroit giving the start to Matt Manning ($6,100). Manning has pitched just eight innings across two starts this year and will be active for the first time since mid-April.
That means he’ll likely be on a pitch count as he builds up to a full workload, and there are obvious questions about his effectiveness. While the Tigers’ bullpen has been strong this season, they’re beginning to be overtaxed, as evidenced by their blowing of the lead last night against Minnesota.
The Tigers starter yesterday, Tarik Skubal, exited early, leaving the bullpen to throw five innings on Monday. The Twins should benefit from second-tier relievers pitching for Detroit tonight, even if they don’t get to Manning early.
Beyond that, the Twins’ first five hitters are reasonably priced considering their slate-leading 5.4-run implied total. They’re a solid option in all contest types on Tuesday.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the New York Mets:
The Mets are far from a bargain on Tuesday. This stack costs over $5,200 per hitter, with even number seven hitter Tyler Naquin coming in over $4,000.
Of course, they could very well prove worth it tonight. They’re implied for 5.2 runs, trailing only the Twins overall and leading all road teams on the slate. They have an attractive matchup with Cory Abbott ($5,300) of the Nationals. Abbot has worked out of the bullpen this year and will serve as an opener vs. the Mets.
Washington’s bullpen has a 4.21 ERA n the season, seventh-worst in the majors. That level of effectiveness would be optimistic when they’re asked to work a full nine innings, raising the chances of the Mets having a big game.
New York is an excellent stack for GPPs, provided you can find the salary to get there.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Victor Reyes OF ($2,100 DraftKings; $2,200 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (Chris Archer)
Reyes continues to be underpriced for his production at the top of the Tigers lineup. He’s hitting .284 on the season and is expected to bat second for Detroit. He has a favorable matchup with Chris Archer ($6,700) of the Twins, who has SIERA and xERA numbers over five on the year.
Reyes isn’t the most exciting option, as his upside is fairly limited, with just one home run in 115 plate appearances in 2022. However, at his near-minimum salary on DraftKings, he doesn’t need a huge score to help your lineup. He’s a way better play there than on FanDuel, thanks to his 94% Bargain Rating.
He leads THE BAT’s DraftKings projections for Pts/Sal among outfielders while ranking in the top three in the FantasyLabs projections.
Austin Barnes C ($2,400 DraftKings; $2,100 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants (Alex Wood)
Barnes is another salary-saving option on Tuesday. He’s an obvious candidate for some positive regression, with a ridiculous .160 BABIP in 2022. That’s low for any player, but particularly for Barnes, who has excellent speed for a catcher.
It’s not the easiest matchup against Alex Wood ($7,600) of the Giants, but the Dodgers are still implied for 4.4 runs on Tuesday. Barnes benefits from the strengths of the hitters around him, providing plenty of RBI and run-scoring opportunities.
Ronald Acuna OF ($5,100 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Nick Nelson)
Acuna is in a bit of a slump, with just one extra-base hit in the eight games he’s played since the All-Star break. That’s led to a drop in salary after being priced above $6,000 through most of July.
Anytime we can get Acuna at a reduced price tag, he’s worth a long look. He leads all batters in the FantasyLabs DraftKings projections for median while coming in second (behind the $5,800 Pete Alonso) in THE BAT.
It’s an above-average matchup for Acuna as Nick Nelson ($5,100) gets the ball for Philadelphia. Nelson is primarily a reliever, with ERA and SIERA numbers around four coming in. It’s not really about the matchup when a player with Acuna’s ability is priced where he is, though. He’s an excellent play in all contests.
