The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features an 12-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Lucas Giolito ($9,100) Los Angeles Angels (-145) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Giolito was supposed to start yesterday against the Reds, but the game was postponed due to the weather. Today, he’s $200 cheaper and with slightly better Vegas Odds. Here’s what was written yesterday:
“Giolito is the obvious top option today, with a slate-leading median projection in the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection sets. The Angels trade-deadline acquisition has had a rough go of it so far in Los Angeles, but he’s faced much tougher competition in his early starts with the club than he does today.
The Reds are a slightly below-average offense on the season, but they’ve performed even worse lately, ranking 25th in wRC+ since July 1st. They also have a strikeout rate of over 26% in that period, which helps to boost the ceiling for Giolito.
While Giolito isn’t a massive strikeout pitcher, he routinely has a strikeout rate in the mid-20s, high enough to have the occasional spiked game in the right circumstances. Giolito is a strong play for cash games and smaller-field GPPs, though I’d probably pass on him in large-field contests thanks to a very high ownership projection.”
His slate-leading projections are still true today, with the only substantive change being that the larger slate makes his ownership projection more tolerable.
He remains the top play on the slate.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Hogan Harris ($5,900) Oakland A’s (-101) vs. Kansas City Royals
Harris is also a leftover pick from yesterday of sorts as we again look to target a cheap pitcher against the dreadful Royals offense. His teammate Paul Blackburn put up a solid 18.5-point performance against these Royals last night, and Hogan could challenge for a similar number at a cheaper price.
Harris had a rough go of it early in the year, with a 6.98 ERA, before being sent down to the minors. However, he wasn’t that bad, with a 5,02 xERA. He’s also been showing signs of improvement until he ran into the Dodgers, a top five offense against lefties on the season.
This matchup couldn’t be much farther from that, with the Royals a bottom-three offense. They’ve been slightly worse against lefties than righties as well, with a lower wRC+ and higher strikeout rate.
None of which is enough to make Hogan a comfortable play, but at his price tag, he’s well worth the risk.
He leads THE BAT in Pts/Sal projection while tying for first in the FantasyLabs models.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Blake Snell ($10,700) San Diego Padres (-180) vs. Miami Marlins
Snell is far from a deep dive here, with the second-highest ownership projection on the slate behind only Giolito. Still, finding the extra salary to make the pivot makes lineups somewhat more unique — and pairing Snell and Giolito together is likely to be a fairly rare build tonight.
Snell leads the slate in a number of key metrics, including strikeout rate (31%) and opponent implied total (3.3 runs). The only reason he’s less popular than Giolito is the price tag, as the extra $1,600 in savings could make a significant difference tonight.
It’s also a considerably tougher matchup for Snell against a Miami team that ranks top-ten on the season against lefties. The betting markets are telling us they aren’t worried about the matchup though, so we shouldn’t be either.
Snell trails only Giolito in median and ceiling projection today and is a strong pivot for larger-field contests.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Atlanta Braves
The Braves are an easy choice today, with a 6.4-run implied total that is nearly a full run clear of their closest competitor. Baseball’s best offense draws a fairly easy matchup today against Tylor Megill ($5,800) of the Mets.
Megill has a 5.53 ERA, with ERA indicators in a similar range. Given Atlanta’s success against even solid pitching, they’re in a great spot tonight. Everything is pointing their way, including the weather (66 Weather Rating) and Umpire (Manny Gonzales is worth an extra 0.7 points to hitters’ Plus/Minus.)
While this stack is expensive, a full Braves fade is likely to be even more costly. I’ll be trying to work at least a few Atlanta hitters into all my lineups tonight.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jack Suwinski OF ($3,400 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright
Cardinals’ legend Adam Wainwright is having an ignominious end to his career, limping to the finish line with an 8.42 ERA. While his ERA predictors are slightly better, he’s still been arguably the worst regular starter in the MLB this season.
This is why I want exposure to the Pirates offense, which trails only the Braves in implied total. Using the PlateIQ tool, I identified Suwinski as my favorite option on the team:
He’s certainly not the only strong choice, but given his salary and Wainwright’s further struggles against lefties, he’s the top option.
J.P. Crawford SS ($3,900 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox (Mike Clevinger)
Crawford made his return from a two-week stint on the IL last night, failing to produce a hit but drawing two walks and scoring both times he got on base. The value of the offense behind him is a big factor in his production, as he’s a threat to score any time he gets on base.
With a reasonably soft matchup against Clevinger, Crawford, and the Mariners are implied for more than five runs tonight on the road. He’s far too cheap for his leadoff role in that offense, especially on FanDuel, where he holds a 79% Bargain Rating.
Logan O’Hoppe C ($2,600 DraftKings; $2,000 FanDuel) Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds (Graham Ashcraft)
O’Hoppe isn’t anything special, but he’s a $2,600 catcher who’s projected to hit in the middle of his team’s lineup. That’s enough for me, given the expensive Braves stack and pricey pitching options I’ll be trying to fit in today. He’s unlikely to win you any contests with his own score, but he also won’t lose them for you given his salary.
Despite his better value on FanDuel, I’m staying away from O’Hoppe there. Salary is somewhat looser, and the lack of a mandated catcher makes finding a value option less of a priority.
