The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 13-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Zack Wheeler ($11,600) Philadelphia Phillies (-115) at Toronto Blue Jays
There are a lot of solid arms at the top of the pay scale on Tuesday, but none that really jump off the screen as a must play. If forced to narrow it down to one, though, Wheeler seems to be the best bet. He has a 3.74 ERA and 27.2% strikeout rate on the season, with both figures near the top of the slate today.
The challenge is the matchup. Toronto is above average in run production while striking out at a bottom-10 rate against righties. They’re implied for 4.1 runs, a much higher Vegas total than we’d expect to find opposing a pitcher at Wheeler’s price tag.
That salary is really the biggest case against Wheeler today. While he leads the slate in median projection in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections, both systems have him around 20 points. That wouldn’t be enough to win you anything of consequence at his price tag without a ton of other pitchers posting total duds.
That makes him a reasonably safe cash game play, but not somebody I’m looking to target in tournaments. I don’t see enough to justify the premium he’ll cost today in either salary or ownership.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Nick Pivetta ($7,800) Boston Red Sox (-172) at Washington Nationals
Pivetta provides a solid mix of upside and safety — relative to his price — on Tuesday. He has an excellent 29.6% strikeout rate on the season and a solid 4.16 ERA.
Both of those numbers are due for some regression, though. His strikeout rate is a bit elevated relative to his swinging strikes, and his ERA is higher than his xERA and xFIP. A matchup with the Nationals seems likely to reveal both of those discrepancies, as they’re a low-strikeout team that struggles to score runs.
That makes Pivetta a reasonably safe pick tonight, and there’s a chance he’s able to maintain his solid strikeout rate even in a tough matchup for it. Even if it comes down a bit, with his price tag, that could still be enough to make him a top Pts/Sal option.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Bailey Ober ($10,200) Minnesota Twins (-191) vs. Detroit Tigers
This is the second straight start against Detroit for Ober. His last appearance perfectly encapsulated the Bailey Ober experience — he allowed four earned runs and eleven hits over five innings but also struck out nine Tigers along the way.
Ober seems equally likely in any start to post a score in the 30s as in the negatives, with little consideration of the matchup. He has topped 23 points in two of his last nine, against the Orioles and Brewers, while getting blown up by these Tigers and the Royals.
Still, over time we’d have to expect better performance against worse lineups, making a date with the majors 28th-best team by wRC+ an appealing one. Detroit also has a top-ten strikeout rate against righties, which should serve to boost Ober’s 24.5% figure even more than they did last time.
Ober profiles as a classic GPP play, with a ceiling as high as any arm on the slate but a scary floor that should scare off much of the competition. With his projected ownership the lowest of all the five-figure arms today, he’s worth taking a shot on.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
We’ll probably see the Diamondbacks as the top recommended stack for the duration of their series in Colorado this week, given their sky-high implied run totals. Today that number is at 7.0, though they only put up four runs yesterday with a similar total.
Still, we expect betting markets to be right more often than not in the long run, making Arizona an easy choice for their game at Coors. There’s also nothing to fear in the matchup against Ty Blach, an on-again, off-again starter/reliever who has a 6.17 xERA through 32 innings this season.
Arizona is likely to be chalky to some extent, but a full fade is extremely scary tonight. Their 6-9 hitters all check in at $3,000 or less in salary, however, making them intriguing pivots that should save in both salary and ownership.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Nick Castellanos OF ($4,700 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi
The Phillies feature one of the better lineups against left-handed pitching in baseball, putting them in a solid spot tonight against the Blue Jays’ Kikuchi. While Kikuchi has a 3.52 ERA this season, he’s been lucky — his xERA is 4.26 and FIP is 4.52.
Castellanos is my favorite Philly lefty-matcher today, thanks to his reasonable price tag and his .920 OPS against southpaws this year. However, he’s not the only strong choice, as evidenced by our PlateIQ tool:
Edouard Julien 2B ($3,100 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers (Alex Faedo)
Julien is a solid budget option, as he’s projected to hit first for a Twins lineup that’s implied for five runs on Tuesday. They’re taking on Alex Faedo of the Tigers, who has a 5.80 ERA through five starts on the season, leading to the solid projection for the Twins bats.
Julien is likely to go overlooked today due to his shared position with the Diamondbacks’ leadoff hitter, making a pivot to him a solid way to get contrarian. That also allows for a less common Diamondbacks stack, making it a win-win for large field tournaments.
Bobby Witt Jr. SS ($5,800 DraftKings; $3,800 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners (Emerson Hancock)
Witt is another player likely to be somewhat contrarian today, as his high price tag is hard to fit around Diamondback stacks. That’s a relatively rare occurrence for Witt, who’s hitting .277 with 34 steals and 22 home runs this season.
It’s also a solid matchup for the Royals in general against the rookie Hancock, giving them a 4.5-run implied total. Given how poor their overall offense is, it’s probably that much of that flows through Witt. He’s a great choice if you can find the salary.
