The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features an 11-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Framber Valdez ($9,900) Houston Astros (-290) vs. Detroit Tigers
Picking on Detroit didn’t work out for us yesterday, but there’s no reason not to go back to the well on Tuesday. Detroit got to Houston’s spot starter Hunter Brown, but now the ace Valdez is back on the mound.
After a 2022 season in which he posted a sub-3.00 ERA and strikeout rate in the 20s, Valdez didn’t miss a beat in his first start this year. He pitched five scoreless innings against the White Sox, striking out four. He should have a slightly longer leash in his second start after getting the hook after 85 pitches last time out.
Detroit’s lineup is also poorly constructed to face left-handed pitching, with lots of left-handed bats at the top of their order. Many of those hitters will get the day off against the southpaw Valdez, but their replacements aren’t exactly world-beaters either. Through a very limited sample size of 57 plate appearances, Detroit has posted a .180 wOBA against lefties this season.
Valdez leads both THE BAT X and FantasyLabs median projections for pitchers on Tuesday.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Josh Fleming ($6,100) Tampa Bay Rays (-184) at Washington Nationals
Value is a bit hard to come by among Tuesday’s arms, with most of the cheaper pitchers projecting fairly poorly. While Fleming doesn’t come with huge projections, he’s a reasonable option if you are looking to save some salary with your second pitcher.
He’s expected to be used as a traditional starter tonight after generally appearing as an “opener” so far in his career. He had a rough couple of seasons based on traditional metrics, with a career ERA of just under 5.00 and a strikeout rate in the mid-teens. However, his underlying stats are much better. His SIERA and xFIP are just over 4.00, and his swinging strike rate suggests he should notch more strikeouts moving forward.
Crucially, he draws a solid matchup with a rebuilding Nationals team. Outside of Detroit, they’ve been the worst offense in baseball so far, with a team wRC+ of just 42. Obviously, they won’t continue to be that bad — but this isn’t a good offense.
They’re implied for just four runs today, making Fleming a solid choice at his price point.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Shane Bieber ($10,500) Cleveland Guardians (-200) at Oakland A’s
With Valdez and Luis Castillo ($9,500) expected to be the slate’s most popular pitchers, it’s between Bieber and Max Scherzer ($10,800) for a slightly under-the-radar stud option at pitcher. They’re projecting neck-and-neck, but Bieber is my preferred choice of the two.
He has a better matchup with the A’s, who are implied for just 3.0 runs. He also stands out in many of the secondary factors. This game has an excellent Weather Rating and Park Factor, and Scherzer has a hitter-friendly umpire that’s knocked a third of a point off a pitcher’s expected Plus/Minus score historically.
Bieber regressed a bit in the strikeout department in 2022 but was still solid at 25%. He continued to excel in run prevention, with a sub-3.00 ERA and xFIP. Both should hold up well against a poor Oakland offense that was one of the league’s worst last season and isn’t a ton better to start 2023.
This is a great spot for Bieber as a slightly contrarian option, and he could be the differentiator on tonight’s slate if he gets back to his high-strikeout ways.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by ceiling belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays are implied for 5.8 runs as the visiting team tonight, making them a clear top stacking option. They aren’t even especially expensive, meaning they could fit in well even with a pair of the more expensive pitchers on the slate.
This is an interesting slate in that some teams are going back to their aces while others are rolling out their #5 starters. Toronto is fortunate enough to be facing a team in the latter camp, with the Royals’ Kris Bubic ($6,500) making his season debut. Bubic had a 5.58 ERA in 2022, with underlying metrics only slightly better.
The big story of this game, though, is the weather. It’s the only game on the slate with some delay/PPD risk, but it’s pretty likely they get this one in without an issue. Still, that should suppress ownership to an extent. More importantly, the forecast is looking excellent for hitters in Kansas City, with temperatures in the 80s at first pitch and wind gusting out at speeds up to 25 mph.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Victor Robles OF ($2,200 DraftKings, $2,300 FanDuel) Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Josh Fleming)
I’m not giving up on Victor Robles just yet:
It might not happen today but I’m gonna die on my Victor Robles hill this season https://t.co/ZaAFpvl0SH
— Billy Ward (@Psychoward586) March 30, 2023
Robles hasn’t been great to start the season, but he’s managed to post a respectable .385 OBP thanks to improved plate discipline. He’s also yet to swipe his first bag, but he has elite speed and should benefit from the new pickoff rules and larger bases in 2023.
The problem for Robles will always be getting to first base, but he’s hit about 35 points better against lefties in his career. He’s relatively thin but a good option if paying up for two of the elite pitching options. A walk or a hit followed by a steal would make him a smash at his price point, even if he comes up empty the rest of the game.
Bobby Witt SS ($4,900 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Yuseki Kikuchi)
Witt is projecting nearly as well as his Blue Jays counterpart (Bo Bichette), with many of the same factors at play. This game has excellent weather, a hitter-friendly umpire, and a double-digit implied game total. Both shortstops are at or near the top of their respective lineups, with winnable hitting matchups.
Bichette is the slightly better on paper play at the same salary, but Witt is a viable contrarian option. He’s expected to carry considerably less ownership, so he (and the entirety of the Royals lineup) could be a viable pivot on Tuesday.
Ozzie Albies 2B ($4,800 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals (Steven Matz)
Albies is priced up a bit on DraftKings for a No. 5 hitter, but he’s an excellent value on FanDuel. At just $3,300, he carries an 87% Bargain Rating there. He also has an excellent matchup with the southpaw Matz. The switch-hitting Albies has hit .328 as a righty in his career, but just .250 when batting left handed.
He also has solid speed, swiping 20 bags in 2021 when he was fully healthy. He’s another player who should benefit from the new rules, provided he gets the green light to take off from time to time.
