The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday’s main slate features eleven games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Carlos Rodon ($10,100) San Francisco Giants (-210) vs. Oakland A’s
Rodon has everything you could want from a pitcher working for him on tonight’s slate. His 2.82 SIERA? Best on the day. 35% strikeout and 15% swinging strike rates? Ditto. The opponent’s Vegas total is a hilarious 2.5? Yep. Rodon has been absolutely lights out to start the season, with 29 strikeouts through 17 innings while allowing just two runs. There’s little reason to believe that won’t continue tonight.
The A’s are an exploitable team for any pitcher to face, though, even those of lesser ability than Rodon. They’re one of a handful of teams to strike out more than 25% of the time while hitting a paltry .209 on the season. They’re somehow even worse against left-handed pitching, hitting just .202 and striking out over 27% of the time.
So that gives us the slate’s best pitcher, with (arguably) the slate’s best matchup. Additionally, this game features some of the best pitching weather on the slate, according to our Weather Rating.
Rodon is the clear leader in median and ceiling projections in THE BAT while coming in at a very close second in the FantasyLabs projections.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Eduardo Rodriguez ($6,300) Detroit Tigers (+115) at Minnesota Twins
Rodriguez leads both projection systems in Pts/Sal on today’s slate. The new Tigers addition has had a somewhat bumpy start to 2022 but seems to be turning things around as the season progresses. Each start has been better than the last, with a solid 14.5-point performance in his last outing against the Yankees.
Today’s matchup looks to be significantly easier than that one as well. The Twins have been solidly mediocre on offense this year. There are also ideal pitching conditions in Minnesota, with a slate-leading 95 Weather Rating and one of the better Park factor scores as well.
There’s reason to believe some of Rodriguez’s early-season struggles have been bad luck as well. His SIERA on the season is nearly a full run lower than his ERA, as is his FIP (fielding independent pitching). Sometimes these predictive ERA metrics vary a bit from one another, but when both are telling you the same thing, it’s a good indication that the pitcher has had some bad luck.
Rodriguez is a solid salary saver, particularly for cash games. While he has a relatively high K Prediction in our models, thanks to the Twins’ high strikeout rate, he has struggled to miss bats throughout his career.
His upside is probably a bit lower than we’d like for tournaments, but he’s a solid pick for cash games.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Kevin Gausman ($8,700) Toronto Blue Jays (-195) vs. Boston Red Sox
Gausman is expected to hold the Red Sox to just 3.5 runs today, which — along with being one of the larger favorites — is reason enough to consider him at a reasonable $8,700 salary. He also has the slate’s highest swinging strike rates. Swinging strikes are usually a very solid leading indicator of strikeouts, meaning Gausman should be in line to start picking up even more strikeouts than he already has.
Gausman faced these same Red Sox in his last start, throwing eight innings of one-run ball while whiffing eight. That’s probably on the higher side of what would be a reasonable expectation today. However, it’s still good to see a pitcher with recent success against the team they’ll be facing.
While Gausman isn’t expected to fly under the radar, we currently have him projected at roughly one-third the ownership as Rodon. You could, of course, play both pitchers together, but any lineup that fades Rodon today will give you some leverage. Gausman is an effective method for doing just that.
Luis Severino ($9,200) New York Yankees (-288) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Severino’s Vegas data — including both his moneyline and his opponent’s implied total of 3.0 — both would suggest he’d be far more popular than our current ownership projections have him. However, his up-and-down 2022 explain why he probably won’t be. He has two starts this season under 10 DraftKings points, most recently allowing nine Tigers base runners in five innings (while striking out just three).
It’s also hard to trust Severino after three consecutive injury-plagued seasons. From 2019 to 2021, he pitched just 18 total innings. He missed the entirety of 2020 due to Tommy John surgery before returning late last season. However, his stuff has looked great in 2022. His fastball velocity is over 97 mph for the first time since 2018, so he appears to be at full strength.
Given all of that, it seems likely that Severino just needed some time to get back into rhythm. He has a tremendous matchup with the Orioles today, so it’s a perfect time to get him in your lineups before his salary starts to rise. He’s somewhat limited by a likely short hook, though. Even in his scoreless performance against the Blue Jays, he was pulled after five innings.
Therefore, he needs to pick up strikeouts in a hurry to challenge for the best pitcher score on the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the New York Yankees:
- DJ LeMahieu (1) ($4,400)
- Aaron Judge (2) ($5,300)
- Anthony Rizzo (3) ($5,400)
- Josh Donaldson (5) ($4,600)
- Aaron Hicks (6) ($3,900)
With ownership likely to condense around the Dodgers today, the Yankees stack is the top pick in our Tournament Model. The Yankees trail only the aforementioned Dodgers in implied runs, with both teams coming in above five. The Yankees are at 5.2 for their matchup against Baltimore righty Jordan Lyles, who has an ERA over five dating back to the start of last season.
It’s generally a good DFS strategy to focus on the second or third best teams/players from a betting market standpoint. Their probability of posting the best overall score is only slightly lower than the top option but with significantly reduced ownership on the whole. Each of the Yankee’s hitters is expected to come in at lower ownership than their corresponding Dodger (based on lineup order today).
This stack also skips the number four spot, which is outfielder Giancarlo Stanton ($4,900). Besides saving $1,000 in salary, the switch to Hicks further reduces the aggregate ownership of the stack. Just like at the team level, Stanton’s probability of outscoring Hicks isn’t nearly as great as the ownership discrepancy will be.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT X when generated by Ceiling belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Of course, when looking just at ceiling projections, the Dodgers are still the best overall choice. Everything is setting up in their favor today. They have the highest implied Vegas total at 5.7 runs. They’re playing at a hitter-friendly park with the best expected Weather Rating on the slate. (With temperatures expected to approach 90 degrees in Arizona, we could very well see a closed roof. However, even neutral conditions like that would be better than anywhere else on tonight’s slate.)
They’re also on the road, guaranteeing them nine bites at the apple even if they turn this into a blowout against Diamondbacks starter Zach Davies ($5,700). Davies has the worst SIERA of any pitcher on the slate and has a walk rate above 10%.
So we have baseball’s best lineup, in the best conditions, on the road, and facing the slate’s worst pitcher. It’s hard to get away from the Dodgers with all of those factors. When we’re looking for ceiling (as opposed to median) projections, Bellinger also makes sense. He has a home run and stolen base upside over number five hitter Justin Turner ($4,000). Turner. Bellinger currently leads the Dodgers in both categories.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Cedric Mullins OF ($4,100 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel): Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (Luis Severino)
Mullins is a bit of an off-the-wall pick today, with a difficult pitching matchup in the Yankees’ Severino. However, Severino has struggled against left-handed hitting both in his career and (especially) in limited action since 2021. Lefties have a wOBA north of .400 against him since the start of last season — though that’s a sample size of under 20 innings.
Still, Severino has allowed an OPS more than 50 points higher to left-handed hitting in his career. Unfortunately for the Orioles, they don’t have a ton of left-handed power on tap to take advantage of that. They do have Mullins, though, who was a .290 hitter last season. He’s off to a slow start this year, but his .262 average on balls in play (BABIP) shows that it’s mostly due to bad luck.
Mullins won’t be a popular pick today, so he could provide massive leverage if he gets something going against the Yankees and Severino. Our projection systems both think he has a reasonable shot, with a positive Projected Plus/Minus in both THE BAT X and FantasyLabs systems.
Tim Anderson SS ($5,300 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel): Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Daniel Lynch)
Anderson needs to be added to the list of “guys we always try to play against lefties.” Throughout his career, Anderson ahs hit .327 against southpaws, with a .875 OPS. He’s especially appealing against left-handed pitchers who aren’t especially good, which is the case today.
The Royals House has allowed a slate-leading .386 wOBA to right-handed bats over the last two seasons and has an overall SIERA over five. Chicago is implied for a solid 4.8 runs, with their talented leadoff shortstop likeliest to do significant damage.
Yasmani Grandal C ($4,200 DraftKings; $2,400 FanDuel): Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Daniel Lynch)
The switch-hitting Grandal is another Chicago bat poised to take advantage of the soft pitching matchup. While his splits aren’t as notable as Anderson’s, Grandal has historically hit slightly better against left-handed pitching. He stands out more on FanDuel for today, though. Due to the non-mandatory nature of the position, catchers tend to go somewhat under-owned there. He’s also exceedingly cheap on FanDuel, with a 93% Bargain Rating.
