The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a six-game main slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Logan Webb ($9,400) San Francisco Giants (-120) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Webb is the leader in projected points in the FantasyLabs projection system. He’s been inconsistent so far in 2022, with two excellent starts but a relatively poor performance his last time up. That bad game stands out, though. Despite allowing 11 hits and three runs, Webb managed to last six innings and still hit double-digit DraftKings points. Going six innings even in a bad outing is a good sign, and Webb should be considered a high-floor option.
He also has excellent numbers, as he’s essentially tied for best on the slate in SIERA while being at or near the top in terms of limiting hard contact and forcing ground balls. He has pedestrian strikeout numbers, though. His 25% rate would’ve been considered outstanding a few short years ago but doesn’t stand out today.
That explains his mediocre 5.47 K prediction in our model, giving Webb a somewhat lower ceiling than the other top pitching options. However, even in a slightly challenging matchup with St. Louis, Vegas is on Webb’s side. His Giants are slight favorites, and the Cardinals are implied for just 3.7 runs.
Overall, Webb makes a very safe cash game play but is a bit too pricey for his (lack of) upside in tournaments. I prefer to take a swing on a higher variance player or pay down and try to get a similar score while saving some salary. He’s not a bad play, but we should try to find more upside on a smaller slate.
Aaron Nola ($8,000) Philadelphia Phillies (-166) vs. New York Mets
Nola is the leader in THE BAT’s median projections, and he’s a way higher variance option than Webb. He has a difficult matchup with the Mets, a top-five team in both wOBA and offensive WAR. Good pitching can still beat good hitting, but there’s a degree of risk with Nola today.
Still, the Mets are implied for just 3.5 runs, one of the lower marks on the slate. Nola’s 3.14 SIERA leads the slate, and that mark is also more than a run lower than his traditional ERA. That’s generally a hint that a pitcher is underpriced since they’ve allowed more runs than they “should” have.
He also has excellent strikeout upside. His 30% mark is second on the slate, and his K prediction leads the pack. When you couple that with the $1,400 in savings relative to Webb, he’s a far better GPP option. You won’t save much in the way of ownership — both Nola and Webb are projected to carry top-three ownership at the position — but the upside is there.
I’ll be passing on Nola in cash games, though, as the strength of the Mets lineup is just a bit too risky for my tastes. It could go south in a hurry for Nola, even if his likeliest outcome is a strong performance.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Chris Archer ($5,800) Minnesota Twins (-153) at Baltimore Orioles
After making just six appearances in 2021, Archer is off to a solid start in 2022. He has an ERA below three while striking out just under a batter per inning. The real appeal to Archer is his price point, as he’s just $5,800 on DraftKings in a juicy matchup against the scuffling Orioles.
Archer’s price reflects the brevity of his 2022 starts, though. He’s yet to record more than 13 outs in an appearance while struggling with control. He’s walked nine in just 15.1 innings, which runs his pitch count up and forces him to make early exits.
Still, he can put up a solid price-considered score in limited duty. He could also start to work deeper in games as the season progresses, particularly if he can limit his walks. That gives Archer a chance to drastically outperform his salary, with his likeliest outcome being a solid performance.
Archer is the leader in Pts/Sal projection in the FantasyLabs projections, making him an excellent cash game choice. He’s also an underrated GPP option, as he’s not likely to be one of the more popular pitchers. His upside is tremendous if he can last an extra inning or two compared to his previous starts.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Robbie Ray ($8,800) Seattle Mariners (+110) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Paying close to $9,000 on DraftKings for an underdog is less than ideal, but Ray is a possible exception. He has a slate-high 31% strikeout rate dating back to last season with a solid 3.32 ERA. He’s yet to put up a massive performance in 2022, but he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his five starts.
This time, he’s taking on the average Rays offense at home. They’re implied for just 3.5 runs, the second-lowest total on the slate. However, Tampa Bay hits much better against lefties than righties, with a 30-point bump to their wOBA in that split.
Ray has also seen his numbers dip this season, with a swinging strike rate of just 12% compared to 15.5% last season. It’s a small sample size, though, and Ray is just 30 years old, so it’s unlikely that his skills are in decline already. With that said, I don’t think Ray would make my GPP lineup if single entering. He’s expected to carry moderate ownership and does come with some risk. I’d want some exposure if multi-entering, though, as his ceiling projection is the highest on the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Twins:
- Byron Buxton (1) ($5,500)
- Carlos Correa (3) ($4,600)
- Jorge Polanco (4) ($4,600)
- Max Kepler (5) ($3,500)
- Jose Miranda (6) ($2,100)
The Twins have the best pitching matchup of the slate, taking on Baltimore’s Spenser Watkins ($5,400). Watkins has a slate-worst 5.40 SIERA while inducing ground balls on just 38% of his balls in play. That explains why Minnesota has the highest implied total of any road team on the slate, at an excellent 4.8 runs.
This stack also benefits from cheaper options in Kepler and Miranda. Kepler has been better than his boxscores would suggest, with his BABIP lower than his career mark and an expected wOBA (xwOBA) 40 points higher than his actual wOBA. His hard-hit rate and barrel rate are well above his career marks as well. Where he’s struggled is getting the ball in the air, with his lowest flyball rate since 2016. A matchup with a pitcher who struggles to induce grounders could be just what the doctor ordered.
Miranda is a recent call up from Triple-A ball, with just three big league games under his belt. He’s recorded a single hit across 13 plate appearances, but the rookie projects to be far better than those numbers. He hit .343 in Triple-A last season with 17 home runs. It’s a solid opportunity to buy early on Miranda, though you could also roster Luis Arraez ($3,800) at first base instead.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by Tournament Model rating belongs to the Houston Astros:
Houston is popping in THE BAT’s projection system, largely thanks to relatively lower ownership projections than the Twins. Houston is implied for 4.8 runs as well, though they’re a home team against the Tigers. Most players prefer to roster road teams for their stacks, making Minnesota the more popular option.
The Tigers are starting Tarik Skubal ($6,500), a third-year southpaw showing signs of improvement this year. He has a SIERA below three on the season while allowing just seven earned runs across 25 innings. I’m a bit surprised the Houston stack with this many left-handed bats stood out in the model, but one could also pivot to other Houston hitters. Be sure to keep an eye on our Lineups Page to see if Houston gets more right-handed bats in their lineup.
Either way, I want exposure to Bregman at a minimum. He has extreme splits against lefties in his career and is a borderline must-play. Getting him under $5,000 for the first time in a bit — while on the right side of his platoon splits — is a gift.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Alec Bohm 3B ($3,600 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets (Taijuan Walker)
Bohm is projected to bat second for the Phillies and is far too cheap for a roughly .300 hitter at the top of the lineup. There’s nothing particularly threatening about the matchup with Walker, who ranks near the middle of the pack in terms of SIERA. Bohm isn’t a massive power hitter, but he represents a solid value on the team with the slate’s highest implied run total.
Austin Nola C ($4,000 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins (Jesus Luzardo)
While $4,000 isn’t cheap for a catcher on DraftKings, there’s a lot to like about Nola today. He’s the only catcher currently expected to bat in the top half of his team’s lineup — and he’s expected to lead off. Luzardo has an ERA near six on the season and is also a lefty. Nola doesn’t have extreme platoon splits, but he has better power numbers (both ISO and slugging percentage) against southpaws.
Yandy Diaz 1B/3B ($4,300 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners (Robbie Ray)
One way to get leverage against the higher-owned pitchers is to play bats against them. Diaz represents a chance to do just that in a matchup against the somewhat popular Ray. Diaz has a career OPS nearly 100 points higher against left-handed pitching, which is another point in his favor. He’s also reasonably priced for an away team leadoff hitter. He’s an especially strong FanDuel value, thanks to his 83% Bargain Rating.
