The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features an 11-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($9,000) New York Yankees (-189) vs. San Francisco Giants
The Giants are one of two teams implied for 3.0 or fewer runs on Thursday’s slate, making Cole an obvious choice for a starting pitcher option. That’s no knock on the Giants’ offense either: the Vegas lines reflect Cole’s ability more than anything else.
Among main slate eligible arms, he ranked second last season in all the categories we look for in starting pitchers: SIERA, strikeout rate, and swinging strike rate. Still just 32 years old, Cole has shown no signs of slowing down. He recorded his fifth consecutive season with a strikeout rate above 30% in 2022. While some of his traditional metrics were a bit worse, that was primarily due to poor variance. His ERA was higher than both his SIERA and xFIP.
Cole had moments of inconsistency last season, but this is a good spot for him. Temperatures in New York are expected to be in the low 40s, which is great for pitchers. The only knock on Cole is his slate-leading projected ownership, but that speaks to how strong of a play he is.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Shane McClanahan ($7,700) Tampa Bay Rays (-240) vs. Detroit Tigers
McClanahan is criminally underpriced on Opening Day, leading both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projection sets in Pts/Sal rating. He has a juicy matchup with the Tigers, who had the league’s worst offense last season and did little to improve their lineup in the offseason.
McClanahan’s projection isn’t just because of the matchup, though. He made a massive leap in his sophomore season, with his ERA and leading indicators all in the mid-2s. His strikeout rate broke 30%, driven by an excellent 15.5% swinging strike rate.
The Tigers are implied for a slate-low 2.9 runs, making McClanahan an excellent option. His only knock is that he could be a bit limited; he didn’t pitch more than five innings in a game until his third start last season. Hopefully, the Rays will give him a slightly longer leash today.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jacob deGrom ($9,600) Texas Rangers (-134) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Cole finished second in the stat categories I target last season because of deGrom. The longtime Met was electric in limited action, with a SIERA of 1.59 and a strikeout rate of over 40%. Each of his last two seasons has seen him top 40%, though he hasn’t cracked 100 innings pitched since 2019.
While health and longevity are significant concerns for deGrom, he should be ready for opening day. He has a tough matchup against the 2022 NL champions, but the Phillies 3.1-run implied total speaks to what oddsmakers expect from deGrom to start the season.
I’m slightly concerned the Rangers will keep their prized free agent signing on a short leash to start the season, given deGrom’s health issues over the past few seasons. That makes him a GPP-only option, but he has the highest ceiling projection in the FantasyLabs projection set.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves are tied with the Twins for the top implied total on the slate, with both units checking in at 5.1 runs. Atlanta has the juicier pitching matchup against the Nationals Patrick Corbin ($6,200). The southpaw had an ERA north of six in 2022 while allowing the most hard contact of any pitcher on the slate.
Atlanta also beat up on lefties last year, posting a top-five wRC+ metric. With the top of their order largely unchanged, there’s not much reason to expect much different in 2023. Atlanta should come in with slightly less ownership than Minnesota, making them the preferred tournament option on Thursday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Max Kepler OF ($3,400 DraftKings, $2,500 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (Zack Greinke)
As mentioned above, the Twins are the other top lineup on Thursday’s main slate. Their leadoff hitter Kepler leads our Tournament Model in rating using the blended projection set. At just $3,400 on DraftKings, he’s far too cheap for the leadoff hitter in one of the top two offenses on the slate.
They have an excellent pitching matchup with Greinke, who was nearly as bad as Corbin last season. At 39 years old, he isn’t likely to be improving this year. Greinke’s SIERA was more than a full run higher than his ERA, and all of his leading indicators suggest he’s due for some significant regression this season.
Kepler and the Twins also benefit from some of the best weather on the slate, with temperatures in the high 60s and 20 mph winds blowing out to left field in Kansas City. That’s “solid but not great” weather by midseason standards, but one of the better situations in late March.
Justin Turner 1B ($4,000 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles (Kyle Gibson)
Turner is a top-five hitter on DraftKings based on rating and really shines on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $2,600, resulting in an 84% Bargain Rating. The Red Sox have a plus matchup with Gibson, who had an ERA over 5.00 last season. While he wasn’t quite that bad, his leading indicators weren’t great, either.
Turner’s power numbers should improve this year as he moves from Dodger Stadium to Fenway Park. His HR/FB rate last year was a pitiful 7.7%, while the Red Sox were at 11.6% in home games last season. He’s also a sneaky beneficiary of the new rules against the shift. Despite being a right-handed hitter, he faced a full shift in more than 150 at bats last season, hitting .279. In 205 at bats against traditional alignments, he hit over .330.
Victor Robles OF ($2,300 DraftKings; $2,200 FanDuel) Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves (Max Fried)
Robles isn’t projecting especially well today, but he’s my favorite “I know better” player on the slate. Like Turner, Robles should benefit from the new rules against the shift, but most of the field is likely to overlook him. He hit .250 in 105 plate appearances against a shift last season but over .350 against non-shifted defenses.
In addition to the shift, the new rules encouraging aggressive base running will greatly boost his production. Robles has elite speed, so larger bases and limited pick-off attempts will do wonders for him. Of course, he can’t steal first base, but he’s a high-risk/high-reward GPP option that almost nobody will be on today.
