The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a seven-game main slate starting at 6:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Aaron Nola ($10,000) Philadelphia Phillies (-157) vs. Atlanta Braves
Nola has elite numbers for the 2022 season, making him stand out today even in a difficult matchup. His sub-3.00 SIERA is excellent, as is his nearly 30% strikeout rate. That’s translated to strong DFS production, with five straight starts of at least 20 points and three going over 30.
His best start during his current run came against the Braves. He fell just one out short of a complete game, striking out 10 while allowing only one run. Atlanta is a solid offense overall, but they rank third in strikeout rate. That means a pitcher like Nola, who can miss bats, can do well.
Vegas has installed the Phillies as significant favorites, and the Braves have a meager 3.9-run implied total. Nola’s $10,000 salary is about right for his expected production, so I can’t really find a compelling reason to fade him here.
While I’m sure he’ll be heavily owned, I’d rather try to differentiate elsewhere. Fading the top arm on bigger slates is one thing, but there aren’t many reasonable alternatives tonight. Nola leads the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection systems for median and ceiling.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Yusei Kikuchi ($6,700) Toronto Blue Jays (TBD) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Projections for the Blue Jays-Rays game are a bit unstable at the moment, as sportsbooks wait until a Tampa starter is announced before posting lines. With that said, Kikuchi is currently leading the FantasyLabs Pts/Sal projections while tied for the lead among pitchers under $9,000 in THE BAT.
Kikuchi has been better than his 5.08 ERA indicates this year, with a much more reasonable SIERA of 4.39. His strikeout rate of over 25% is also solid, so his fantasy production should improve. The Rays are a non-threatening matchup, with a 97 wRC+ on the season.
Kikuchi isn’t a comfortable play, with none of his starts in June making it even to five innings. His underlying numbers suggest he’s been unlucky though, so he’s worth taking a chance on at a reasonable salary. He’s been priced as high as $8,600 this season, making this a clear buy-low opportunity.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Logan Gilbert ($9,500) Seattle Mariners (-235) vs. Oakland A’s
Gilbert and the Mariners are the heaviest favorites on the slate as they take on the league-worst A’s offense. Oakland is now tied with Detroit for the lowest wRC+ mark as a team, with the Tigers inching ahead in wOBA. Gilbert has solid — though not elite — numbers this year, but that should be more than enough to dominate this matchup.
Gilbert is unlikely to provide as much upside as Nola, with a strikeout rate just below 25%. Our K Prediction has Nola ahead by a little over a full strikeout. Gilbert also hasn’t topped seven innings in a start this season, while Nola has lasted eight or more in three of his last six.
However, Gilbert’s risk of getting knocked around is slim, making him a useful pivot if the Braves’ offense can get to Nola. Both THE BAT and the FantasyLabs projections have Gilbert within a few points of Nola, so he’s the better tournament play if his ownership projections come in low.
As an added bonus, this game has the top Weather Rating and second-best Park Factor for pitchers on the slate.
Luis Severino ($9,100) New York Yankees (-124) at Houston Astros
Severino is a budget Nola on today’s slate, with similar overall numbers but an even more difficult matchup. Houston trails only the Yankees in wRC+ on the season, while the Braves rank 10th.
Of course, we’re getting Severino at a discount, making the tougher situation slightly more palatable. He’s also likely to be owned at a far lower rate, making him an attractive GPP option. He ranks just ahead of Gilbert in the FantasyLabs projections and just behind him in THE BAT.
Rostering either (or both) of Severino or Gilbert instead of Nola is effectively a bet on Nola having a disappointing outing. If going that way, I’d recommend rostering some Braves hitters against Nola. They’ll be lower owned thanks to Nola being somewhat chalky, and the additional leverage that build provides could be massive.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
- Rafael Ortega (1) ($3,100)
- Willson Contreras (2) ($4,800)
- Ian Happ (3) ($3,800)
- Patrick Wisdom (4) ($3,700)
- Nico Hoerner (5) ($3,300)
The Cubs stack is shockingly cheap today, especially considering their 5.3-run implied total. That mark leads the slate, with the better offenses having more difficult pitching matchups.
Chicago is taking on the Reds Graham Ashcraft ($8,000), a rookie right-hander making his eighth big league start. While Ashcraft has been solid overall with a 3.71 SIERA, he’s also had some blow-up games. He’s lasted just under six innings per start on the season.
The real appeal to the matchup is the awful Reds bullpen. Their 5.37 ERA is easily the worst in the league. The pen had to work four innings last night against the Cubs, allowing four runs along the way. They allowed three runs in three innings on Tuesday, so an already poor unit will be somewhat shorthanded.
The Cubs’ offense overall isn’t great, but Contreras and Happ both have OPS marks over .800, and Wisdom has hit 14 home runs. There’s some upside here, especially if they can extend some at bats against Ashcraft and get to the bullpen early.
The weather in the Windy City is another factor, with the wind blowing out to center in the forecast. The 67 Weather Rating for hitters in this game leads the slate.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
On the other hand, THE BAT prefers the Reds stack today, giving them the highest ceiling projections at a reasonable cost. Their 4.9-run implied total trails only Chicago, and the guaranteed ninth inning as the road team is a bonus.
They also have a good matchup with Kyle Hendricks ($5,100). Hendricks has a 4.57 SIERA on the season, and he’s also been an extremely flyball pitcher. That could be problematic given the weather conditions at Wrigley today, with strong winds blowing out.
They’re also in a good spot if and when they get to the Cubs bullpen. While the Cubs relievers aren’t quite as bad as the Reds, their 4.59 ERA is the fourth-highest in the majors this season.
Given their prices, the Reds could be the best price considered stack on the slate today.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Travis D’Arnaud C ($4,300 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (Aaron Nola)
I mentioned using Braves hitters to gain leverage on this slate, and D’Arnaud is my favorite option. Nola is a strikeout pitcher, but D’Arnaud has a sub-20% strikeout rate, which is the type of hitter I like to target against high-strikeout arms.
He also has significant upside, slugging over .500 on the season with 11 home runs in just 51 games. He’s undoubtedly overpriced for his expected outcome in a tough matchup though, making him a GPP-only option. Still, he should be relatively overlooked by the field today.
With a generally weak catcher position on DraftKings, I’ll take my chances on a quality hitter at low ownership who provides leverage over the field — provided you’re fading Nola.
Wander Franco SS ($4,600 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (Yuseki Kikuchi)
Kikuchi should be another popular arm today, so rostering hitters against him can provide some leverage. Franco is the best way to do so, thanks to his ridiculous platoon splits against left-handed pitching. The sample size is limited, with just 158 career plate appearances. However, he has a .958 OPS against southpaws, well above his .682 mark against righties.
Randy Arozearena ($4,500 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) also has solid platoon splits. Both are better plays on FanDuel, with identical 89% Bargain Ratings.
Christian Yelich OF ($4,500 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates (JT Brubaker)
The Brewers have a 4.8-run implied total against JT Brubaker ($7,500), who has been solid this season. However, he’s struggled with left-handed hitters throughout his career. Lefties have a .344 wOBA against him, compared to .322 when facing right-handed hitting.
That makes Yelich the top choice among the Brewers. He’s hitting a disappointing .252 on the season but has been better recently, posting a .286 batting average in June.
