The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a five-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Luis Severino ($9,400) New York Yankees (-279) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Severino is as close as you can get to a must-play pitcher today. Vegas tells most of the story, with the Yankees as massive favorites and Tampa Bay implied for just 2.9 runs. That 2.9 run total is very strong in any context, but especially on today’s small slate. No other pitcher has an opponent total under 3.7.
Severino’s numbers are a big part of the reason why. He has a 3.08 SIERA and 28.9% strikeout rate on the year, both excellent marks. He’s missed bats at the highest rate of his career, with a 13.9% swinging-strike rate. His strikeout rate was over 35% each of the last two seasons, so if anything, Severino has run slightly bad this year.
It’s also not an exceptionally difficult matchup, with Tampa Bay a roughly league-average offense. They’re also tied for tenth in the MLB in strikeout rate. Severino’s 6.2 strikeout prediction — while excellent — probably deserves to be even higher. He has at least eight in each of his last three outings, including once against these Rays.
Severino is naturally popping in our Models, coming in third in the FantasyLabs projection set and first in THE BAT’s. He’ll be extremely chalky today, but finding a reason to fade him at a very reasonable $9,400 price tag is difficult. I’ll be looking to get unique elsewhere.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Shoehei Ohtani ($8,200) Los Angeles Angels (-120) at Seattle Mariners
Since the start of May, Ohtani (as a pitcher) has put up at least 18 DraftKings points in all but one start, which came against the Yankees’ MLB-best offense. In every other outing. He’s been remarkably consistent, with the upside for much more. He has scores of 40.3 (against Houston), 38.2, and 26.2 DraftKings points, the latter two both against the Red Sox.
I mention his opponents in those games because today’s matchup is somewhat difficult. Seattle has hit the ball well this season, ranking eighth in wRC+. However, they’re just 16th in wOBA — which doesn’t account for ballpark — largely thanks to playing their home games at a pitcher’s park. This one is also in Seattle, with a slate-high 71 Park Factor for Ohtani.
The Vegas data on Ohtani is better than any pitcher other than Severino, with Ohtani possessing the aforementioned 3.7-run opponent total. He also has a slate-leading 6.76 K Prediction in our Models. He’s also lasted at least six innings in every non-Yankee start from May on, making him a steal at just $8,200.
Ohtani leads the Pts/Sal projections in the FantasyLabs set while trailing only Severino and his opponent — George Kirby ($6,500) of the Mariners — in THE BAT’s projections.
George Kirby ($6,500) Seattle Mariners (+100) vs. Los Angeles Angels
We’ve already mentioned the excellent Park Factor in this game, but it also leads the slate in Weather Rating. Those are good signs for Kirby, who’s taking on an Angels team in crisis. They’ve fired manager Joe Maddon, but that didn’t really fix much. They’re averaging just 2.64 runs in June and have scored only two over the last three games.
All of which is a perfect scenario for the rookie Kirby. He has solid numbers in his own right, with a 3.40 SIERA and 22.7% strikeout rate. He’s averaging over five innings per start, which is mildly impressive — particularly for a rookie — in today’s MLB.
His upside is somewhat lower than Severino and Ohtani, but that’s acceptable at his price tag. He’s tied with Ohtani for the lead in Pts/SAl in the FantasyLabs projections while coming in first in THE BAT’s. With salary being fairly easy to find today, I probably won’t go to Kirby for GPPs, but he’s a fine cash game option.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Zack Wheeler ($9,600) Philadelphia Phillies (-205) at Washington Nationals
Thanks partly to his slate-high salary, Wheeler will likely be the least popular of the top pitchers on Thursday’s slate. That makes him a very strong leverage play, with a sub-3.00 SIERA and a 29.3% strikeout rate heading into this game. His Phillies are better than -200 favorites for a reason, largely thanks to his dominance.
Washington is also one of the better matchups on the slate, with the Nationals ranking slightly below league average in most offensive categories. They aren’t bad enough to be exploited by lesser pitching, but Wheller is arguably the best arm on the slate.
He would be an obvious play today if not for the strength of Severino and Ohtani at lower price points. That’s the type of pitcher we like for GPPs since his odds of being the highest-scoring pitcher are likely higher than the ownership projections indicate. He trails only Ohtani in the FantasyLabs median projections while coming in fourth in THE BAT’s.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Texas Rangers:
- Marcus Semien (1) ($4,600)
- Corey Seager (2) ($4,900)
- Kole Calhoun (4) ($3,900)
- Jonah Helm (5) ($4,000)
- Nate Lowe (6) ($3,000)
The Rangers aren’t an offense we see pop up often as a top stack, as they rank near the bottom of the league in most offensive metrics. However, they have an excellent matchup today against the Tigers and starter Beau Brieske ($5,900).
Brieske has performed reasonably well for the Tigers, but he wasn’t expected to be a big-league starter this year. He has a 4.85 SIERA while striking out just 15.3% of the batters he’s faced. Notably, his BABIP is just .236, an unsustainably low number.
With Brieske in line for some negative regression, the Rangers become an excellent play at their bargain prices. This stack comes in at just over $20,000 in total salary, despite Texas having the second-highest implied total on the slate. As an added benefit, this stack takes care of the catcher position with Helm, who’s slugging .439 on the season.
This game also features the best Weather Rating for hitters on the slate, at 76. There’s a lot to like about Rangers stacks today, with various combinations solidly in play.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies are the only team with a higher implied total on the slate than Texas, with an excellent 5.7-run total. Like the Rangers, they’re also on the road, guaranteeing nine trips to the plate even if they’re in control of this one the way Vegas expects. This game also trails only the Rangers-Tigers game in Weather Rating, another solid data point for Philadelphia.
The real appeal is the matchup. They’re set to take on Patrick Corbin ($5,200) and the Nationals. Corbin has been erratic this season, with some solid outings mixed in with absolute blowups. He’s allowed at least five runs in six of 13 starts with a 6.65 ERA overall.
Noted lefty-mashers Castellanos (.887 career OPS against southpaws) and Hoskins (.929) are in especially good spots today. Catcher J.T. Realmuto also had the day off yesterday, which is a situation I like to target at such a physically demanding position.
All in all, the Phillies are clearly the top choice today, though every member of this stack is expected to be chalky. They’re reasonably priced, though, and mixing in some bottom-of-the-order bats could relieve a bit of the ownership issues.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Victor Reyes OF ($2,300 DraftKings; $2,300 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers (Martin Perez)
Reyes has been one of the few bright spots for an awful Tigers lineup this year. He’s hitting .341 in limited plate appearances after missing multiple stretches due to injury. Since returning from his most recent IL stint, he’s gone seven for 17 in four games.
The switch hitter also does better work against lefties in his career, which is another boost against Perez today. He has a .301 career average against southpaws, compared to .262 against righties. While we might not need the salary today, he’s an excellent value at his price tag. He leads all outfielders in Pts/Sal projection in the FantasyLabs projection set.
Juan Soto OF ($5,200 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel) Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Zack Wheeler)
Soto has missed the last two games after a freak accident saw him slip in the dugout and bang his knee, so he may miss additional time. If he plays, though, he’s a great option. Soto is a major regression candidate, with just a .226 BABIP on the season. His career mark is .317, and he’s never had a full season below .312.
With Soto not striking out much, his average “should” be roughly 80 points higher than the .228 he’s hitting. His HR/FB ratio is also the lowest of his career, but he’s hitting fly balls above his career average rate. He’s a bit overpriced for his difficult matchup with Wheeler, but salary is pretty loose tonight. Keep an eye on our lineups page, and if Soto is in, he has some appeal for GPPs.
Francisco Lindor ($4,700 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel) New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Aaron Ashby)
Lindor is another play slightly more expensive than his likeliest outcome but worth considering with looser salaries today. It’s not an especially appealing matchup with the Brewers Ashby, who has a 3.13 SIERA on the season. Ashby is a lefty, though, and Lindor has hit lefties about 20 points better in his career. Ashby is also averaging less than four innings per start, and the Brewers bullpen ranks 19th in ERA on the season.
