The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a three-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Kodai Senga ($9,000) New York Mets (-200) vs. Washington Nationals
It’s an extremely thin slate on Thursday, with just three games — and six pitchers — to choose from. Only one of those pitchers has an opponent Vegas total below four: Senga.
Naturally, that makes him the clear leader in median and ceiling projection in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projection sets. Of course, his ownership will likely reflect that, especially given tonight’s limited options.
Senga has excellent numbers on the season, with a 3.27 ERA and leading indicators in a similar range. He’s also struck out nearly 30% of opposing hitters, easily the best mark on the slate. Unfortunately, the Nationals strike out at the second-lowest rate in the majors against righties, somewhat limiting his upside.
That would typically make a strong case for fading Senga if there were better options. That’s not the case tonight, so I’ll be loading up on Senga and trying to find contrarian options elsewhere.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Tanner Bibee ($7.200) Cleveland Guardians (-105) at Chicago White Sox
Outside of Senga, most lineups today will feature one of the pitchers from the Guardians and White Sox game. They’re both bottom-ten offenses against right-handed pitching, and this game has the lowest over/under on the slate. Which pitcher to target is the more challenging question.
Bibee is the cheaper of the two, making him a better fit for budget-sensitive lineups. He also has far better run prevention numbers than his opponent, with a 3.04 ERA and a solid 3.24 xERA on the season. With the White Sox ranking 29th against righties — compared to 20th for his Guardians — Bibee is the safer option tonight.
He probably won’t provide massive upside, though. His strikeout rate of 24.6% is solid but not spectacular and “should” be even lower based on his swinging strike rate. For that reason, most of my interest in Bibee is for cash games.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Dylan Cease ($8,000) Chicago White Sox (-115) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Cease is on the other side of this AL Central matchup. He’s the higher ceiling option today, with a 28% strikeout rate that we’d expect to be closer to 30% based on his swinging strike rate.
He’s also the riskier option, thanks to a somewhat tougher matchup with the Guardians and his struggles in preventing runs. He has a 4.04 ERA, with similar numbers in his ERA predictors, and the Guardians have the lowest strikeout rate against righties in the majors.
With Cease coming in at a higher salary than Bibee, he needs a decent strikeout number to justify his price tag. That’s less likely — but not impossible — against the Guardians. That makes him a GPP-only play for me tonight, but he should come in at considerably lower ownership than his counterpart.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
We went with the Cubs as our top stack yesterday, and they paid off in a big way. Chicago erupted for ten runs, with plenty of excellent DFS scores from their stack.
Our models are pointing towards the Cubs again tonight, largely thanks to their excellent 4.8-run implied total against the rival Cardinals. St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas ($6,800) has been rough this year, with a 4.33 ERA and considerably worse underlying numbers.
This Cubs stack is also far too cheap considering their Vegas total, which trails only the Cardinals for best on the slate. They’re a solid pick for all contest types, with a full five-player stack and smaller stacks both viable options.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Nolan Arenado 3B ($5,700 DraftKings; $3,800 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs (Justin Steele)
Whenever the Cardinals take on a left-handed pitcher, it has my attention. St. Louis has a handful of players with excellent career platoon splits against lefties, even though their full team numbers aren’t all that notable this season.
Chiefly among them is Arenado, a fact made very apparent by our PlateIQ tool:
While he isn’t the only one with excellent splits this season, he stands out today, especially with his 94% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Bo Naylor C ($2,600 DraftKings; $2,400 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox (Dylan Cease)
With most lineups likely to feature one of the two pitchers from this game, it makes sense to roster players against whichever pitcher you choose to fade. I’m looking at left-handed hitters from the Guardians in my lineups without Cease since he has considerably worse numbers against lefties.
That group includes Naylor, a cheap option at a very thin catcher position. He’s a boom-or-bust player, with a high strikeout rate but a ridiculous 27% of his hits going for home runs through 22 games played this season.
Tim Anderson SS ($3,800 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians (Tanner Bibee)
Using the same logic as above, if I’m fading Bibee tonight, I’ll be rostering players against him. Anderson is my first choice, with his salary decreasing considerably in recent weeks.
Part of that is because he hasn’t hit a home run yet this season, despite solid hard-hit numbers. We’ve been forecasting some positive regression in the home run department for a while now, but his 0% HR/FB ratio can’t last forever.
Even if he doesn’t leave the yard, he provides some reasonable upside on the bases, with 10 steals on the season. He’s the top-rated shortstop in our tournament model on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
