The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a three-game main slate starting at 1:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Tarik Skubal ($7,100) Detroit Tigers (-154) at Oakland A’s
A $7,100 pitcher that’s topped 20 DraftKings points just once in his past six starts is stretching the definition of “stud.” However, the MLB is doing a bit of a soft restart, with only three games on the main slate.
Skubal looked like a legitimate ace earlier in the season, topping 20 points in six of his first ten starts, including a three-game stretch where he pitched 18 scoreless innings and struck out 21. He’s regressed in a big way as of late, but the talent is undoubtedly there.
The real appeal is the matchup. This game features the two worst offenses in the major leagues by a fairly wide margin. While Detroit and Oakland have similar team numbers on the season, the A’s are probably the more appealing matchup to target. Oakland has struck out slightly more, with a lower wRC+ and wOBA than Detroit.
Skubal’s price is also very reasonable. It was consistently above $9,000 during his dominant stretch, but at $7,100, he should be more than worth the risk. He leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT in median and Pts/Sal projections.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Zach Logue ($5,700) Oakland A’s (+130) vs. Detroit Tigers
Logue is projecting just behind Skubal in both systems in Pts/Sal, as he also benefits from an excellent matchup with Detroit. As mentioned above, Detroit and Oakland rank well behind every other MLB team in most offensive metrics, so looking to roster pitchers against them is a good strategy.
Logue doesn’t inspire as much confidence as Skubal, though. He’s bounced between the majors and minors this season, with today’s call-up being necessary due to the doubleheader between these teams. Logue has ERA and SIERA numbers over 5.00 on the year and just a 17.4% strikeout rate.
The Tigers are also a quietly solid team against left-handed pitching, and Logue is a southpaw. Against lefties, Detroit has a 101 wRC+, which is just above league average. While that doesn’t make them a lineup to fear by any stretch, blindly rostering left-handed pitchers against them may not be ideal.
Logue’s salary mitigates those concerns, but I’m not sure we’ll need the savings today. I’d be interested if salary was tight, but given the lack of high-priced arms on the small slate, going this cheap at SP2 may not be necessary.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Cristian Javier ($9,500) Houston Astros (-125) vs. New York Yankees
Javier has by far the best numbers of any pitcher on the slate. His 35.2% strikeout rate would be second among qualified starters if he’d thrown enough innings this season, and he couples that with a 3.22 ERA. His ERA is also slightly higher than his SIERA, so if anything, he’s been a touch unlucky.
Of course, he has an extremely difficult matchup Thursday with the Yankees. New York has the second-highest Vegas total on the slate — behind only Javier’s Astros — at 4.0. We can’t assume all of those runs come against Javier, but the slate’s most expensive pitcher having the second-highest total is generally not a good DFS spot.
However, Javier has had success against these Yankees in the recent past. He went seven scoreless innings against them at the end of June, striking out 13. That produced a ridiculous 45-point DraftKings score, which he followed up in his next outing with 45 more points.
With only six pitchers to choose from, I want some exposure to the guy who put up 90 DraftKings points in a two-game stretch. His ownership projections are high in the absolute sense but rank in the middle of the pack on the small slate. He’s a great tournament option.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Detroit Tigers:
- Riley Greene (1) ($3,200)
- Javier Baez (2) ($4,500)
- Robbie Grossman (3) ($2,300)
- Miguel Cabrera (4) ($2,300)
- Willi Castro (6) ($2,000)
You know it’s a small slate when the Tigers feature the highest-rated tournament stack and the top projected pitcher, yet here we are. I mentioned Detroit’s success against left-handed pitching and Logue’s mediocre overall numbers. Those combine to make the Tigers an attractive option at dirt cheap prices.
Baez, in particular, is a borderline must-play, with excellent numbers against lefties this season and throughout his career. In 2022, he’s batting .338 with a .934 OPS against left-handed pitching but just .174 with a .532 OPS against righties. His price reflects his overall numbers, so he’s underpriced on the positive side of his splits.
Castro and Grossman have also hit at least 45 points higher when facing southpaws in their career, while Cabrera sees a slight boost as well.
Greene hits left-handed himself, making him the possible weak link here. However, he’s recorded only 34 plate appearances against lefties in the majors and has shown no signs of struggling.
This game is also the first part of a doubleheader, which could lead to Logue being left in a bit longer than usual. There’s also the possibility that Oakland doesn’t burn their better bullpen arms if this one gets away from them, so the Tigers hitters could have favorable matchups throughout.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top non-Padres DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the Houston Astros:
Houston has the highest projected run total on the slate today at 4.2 runs. That’s not a massive total on most slates, but it’s fairly slim pickings today. They’re taking on Jordan Montgomery ($7,600) of the Yankees, a lefty with solid but not spectacular numbers on the year.
That makes specific Astros hitters stand out. Chiefly Bregman, whose platoon edge is massive today. I generally target Bregman against lefties even if I’m not stacking, so fitting him will be a priority. Altuve and Pena both have better numbers against southpaws, albeit with a small sample size from the rookie Pena.
The Astros aren’t projecting as a great value relative to their price, but their ceiling is the best on the slate. Even if not going with the full stack, avoiding them entirely would be foolish with just three games to choose from.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Ramon Laureano OF ($3,800 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) Oakland A’s vs. Detroit Tigers (Tarik Skubal)
Laureano is projecting as an excellent value, expected to hit second in the A’s lineup at a reasonable salary. With his A’s facing the pitcher with the highest projected ownership on the slate, he should also come in with moderate ownership relative to his projections.
He’s been mediocre this season but has some upside with both hit bat and legs. He has nine steals and nine home runs through 62 games played. He’s also on the right side of his platoon splits, with a career batting average almost 40 points higher against lefties.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,200 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel) New York Yankees at Houston Astros (Christian Javier)
Similar to Laureano, Judge should see reduced ownership today given the popularity of the pitcher he’s facing. While he’s expensive, he leads both THE BAT’s and FantasyLabs’ median projections for hitters regardless of position. It’s also fairly easy to find the salary to get to him, especially if fading Javier — the slate’s most expensive pitcher.
