The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a seven-game slate starting at 12:20 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Strider ($12,600) Atlanta Braves (-195) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Two things can be — and are — true today: Spencer Strider is vastly overpriced, and he might still be the best option at pitcher today.
It’s hard to find much data on pitchers priced at or above $12,000 on DraftKings. Per our Trends Tool, it’s happened just eight times in the past three seasons, with seven of those being Strider himself. Still, the historical numbers dating back to 2014 are strong:
Strider is as close to perfect of a DFS pitcher as one could imagine, with a 38.9% strikeout rate that leads qualified starters by a wide margin. However, he has a relatively difficult matchup with the D’backs, who are top-10 in wRC+ against righties on the season.
However, that’s canceled out to an extent by the smaller nature of this slate. There are no other options on the board with anywhere near Strider’s upside. Besides, his sky-high salary and difficult matchup might even keep his ownership reasonable.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also bullish on Strider’s strikeout upside:
MLB DFS Value Pick
George Kirby ($8,300) Seattle Mariners (-131) vs. Minnesota Twins
I’m torn on how I evaluate pitchers against the Twins. Minnesota’s solid offense but sky-high strikeout rate introduces a ton of variance to the equation, but how should we best attack them? With pitchers who excel in run prevention but generally don’t miss bats, or with arms who already rack up plenty of strikeouts?
I’ve leaned toward the latter in the past, but I’m beginning to think that the former is the way to go. Strikeout rates can only get so high, but by targeting innings-eaters who keep runs to a minimum, we may get the best of both worlds.
That describes Kirby to a T, as his strikeout rate is barely over 20%, but he has a 3.43 ERA and some of the best command in the majors. He’d be in every-start DFS consideration if his strikeout rate were even 25%, and a matchup with Minnesota should elevate him to roughly that level.
He’d gone five straight starts with at least six innings pitched and three or fewer earned runs heading into the All-Star break before getting beat up a bit in his last outing. I’m willing to overlook that, given the circumstances. If he can replicate his pre-break numbers, he’s an excellent value at $8,300.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Pablo Lopez ($10,200) Minnesota Twins (+110) at Seattle Mariners
In Lopez, we’re splitting the difference between Kirby and Strider. He has way better stuff than Kirby but is noticeably behind Strider. His salary fits firmly in the middle of those starters as well. That makes it tough to get to Lopez since pairing him with Strider is nearly impossible.
He arguably has the best matchup of the trio, though, as the Mariners rank well behind the Twins and Diamondbacks in wRC+ while striking out nearly as much as his Twins. It’s uncomfortable paying five figures for a pitcher that Vegas has as an underdog, but it could be worth it tonight.
Lopez has an excellent 30.2% strikeout rate on the season, and his 4.24 ERA isn’t a true reflection of his abilities. He’s been unlucky, with a 3.11 xERA and 3.37 FIP. Some positive regression in his run prevention paired with sky-high strikeout upside could see him challenge Strider for the slate’s top score while saving more than $2,000 in salary.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
To the Giants we go, one more time in their four-game series with the Reds. For the fourth consecutive day, they lead all road teams with their 4.9-run implied total while being priced well below what we’d expect to pay for that kind of run production.
The Giants have fallen short of their Vegas total in two of the three games this series, but the exception was an 11-run explosion on Tuesday. All we need is the occasional ceiling game in DFS, so it’s worth taking the chance again before the Giants depart for the pitcher-friendly parks of the west coast.
The little league dimensions of Great American Ball Park mean a good chunk of their runs should be homers, giving San Francisco a ton of upside for DFS. Plus, their salaries make playing Strider a bit easier to swallow.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Salvador Perez C ($4,400 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers (Michael Lorenzen)
I’ve been looking for ways to pick on the Tigers’ Lorenzen, the All-Star whose traditional numbers are much better than his underlying abilities. He has a 3.75 ERA, but all his ERA predictors are above 4.00, with his xERA at 4.50. Our PlateIQ tool makes it pretty obvious which Royal is best to do that with:
There aren’t many catchers with the best offensive numbers on their team, so take advantage when you can. He’s the top-rated Tournament Mondel catcher on DraftKings when using both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections.
Pete Alonso 1B ($4,800 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel) New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox (Michael Kopech)
The Mets’ 5.4-run implied total leads the slate on Thursday as they take on the White Sox and Kopech. Kopech is another pitcher I’ve been looking to target, with an ERA of 4.47 but an xERA more than a run higher at 5.57.
There’s no better way to do that than with Alonso, whose 26 home runs rank third in the National League. He’s hitting just .203 on the season, but when most of those hits leave the park, that’s a risk we’re willing to take. I’d stay away from Alonso for cash games, but he’s an excellent GPP option.
Juan Soto OF ($5,600 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel) San Diego Padres vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Chris Bassitt)
Let’s give Soto another shot. He underwhelmed on Wednesday, but it wasn’t his fault: in five plate appearances, he was walked three times. Bassitt is more of a pitch-to-contact type, so hopefully, Soto gets a few more opportunities to put the ball in play.
Bassitt has also struggled mightily against lefties, with a .392 wOBA allowed this season compared to just .247 against righties. With Soto having the Padres’ best numbers against right-handed pitching, that’s an excellent combination of platoon splits that could pay massive dividends today.
