The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features an 11-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Corbin Burnes ($10,600) Milwaukee Brewers (-112) at San Francisco Giants
Burnes and the Brewers are ever so slightly favored in what’s expected to be a pitcher’s duel in San Francisco. This game has an over/under of just 6.5 runs, absurdly low for a mid-season contest. Burnes thus has the best Vegas data on the slate, with San Francisco implied for just 3.3 runs.
This matchup features two of the five MLB pitchers with a 30% or greater strikeout rate on the season, and Burnes checks in at third in the MLB at 32.4%. His swinging-strike rate suggests he could be even better in that regard. It’s at 16.6%, identical to his mark in 2021, where he whiffed over 35% of the hitters he faced.
He’s equally strong in the run prevention category, with an insane 2.20 ERA. While his leading indicators are all slightly worse, each of them is under 3.00 as well.
It’s not the easiest matchup, with the Giants ranking top-ten in wRC+. It’s bolstered a little bit by the conditions in San Francisco, though. This game has the second-best Weather Rating on the slate, and Oracle Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball.
Burnes leads the FantasyLabs median projections while coming in second in THE BAT.
Carlos Rodon ($9,300) San Francisco Giants (-105) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Rodon is on the other side of this one, with similarly excellent numbers. His Giants are the slightest of underdogs, with Milwaukee implied for an identical 3.3 runs tonight.
Rodon sits right behind Burnes in most relevant metrics, with a 31% strikeout rate and 2.70 ERA. He has a theoretically easier matchup on paper, as the Brewers rank 12th with a 103 wRC+. That’s an extremely narrow gap, though, and not one worth putting much stock in.
However, Milwaukee has struggled a bit with lefties. They have a below-average 93 wRC+ against southpaws like Rodon, which might be enough to tip me in his direction over Burnes tonight.
Either way, Rodon is projecting as the better per-dollar value in both projection systems, and he also edges out Burnes in THE BAT’s median projection. The better GPP play is whoever has lower ownership projections between the two, given how little there is to separate them.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Kevin Gausman ($8,600) Toronto Blue Jays (-375) at Kansas City Royals
Gausman isn’t quite as cheap as our usual “value” pick, but he’s standing out nonetheless. His massive moneyline odds are a major reason — he’s the slate’s heaviest favorite — and he’s a full $2,000 cheaper than Burnes.
He hasn’t been quite as dominant as Burnes or Rodon, but it’s closer than you might think. Gausman has a 2.86 ERA and 27% strikeout rate on the season. His 16% swinging strike rate is higher than Rodon’s and nearly at Burnes’ level, so Gausman has room for some improvement from a strikeout perspective.
Crucially, he has by far the best matchup of the high-end arms today, with the Royals ranking bottom-ten in the majors in wRC+. Kansas City doesn’t have an implied run total yet, but based on the moneyline odds, it should be in the same range as San Francisco and Milwaukee.
Gausman and one of the studs will likely be the chalky pitching combination today, but the former is hard to avoid given the savings. He ranks second in THE BAT and FantasyLabs’ Pts/Sal projections.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Triston McKenzie ($8,300) Cleveland Guardians (-245) vs. Detroit Tigers
Since the A’s have the day off, McKenzie’s matchup with the Tigers is the best one on the board. Detroit’s offensive struggles shouldn’t be a secret at this point, and they’ve returned to form after a recent hot streak. They’re averaging just three runs per game over the last week, all of which have been on the road.
McKenzie has a 3.47 ERA and 22% strikeout rate coming into this one, solid but not elite numbers. However, he’s still just 24 years old and is undoubtedly on the upswing of his career. Expect better things from him as his career advances, and a date with the Tigers is a good time to start.
To accompany the massive moneyline odds in McKenzie’s favor, the Tigers are implied for just 3.4 runs tonight.
McKenzie’s longevity (5.8 innings per start in 2022) and lower strikeout rate raise concerns about his ceiling, but he has multiple paths to relevancy. He can get there if any of the top arms have an off day or if he picks up a few extra Ks in an elite matchup. Assuming his ownership projections come in lower than the pitchers mentioned above, he’s a fantastic GPP option.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Cleveland Guardians:
- Steven Kwan (1) ($3,400)
- Amed Rosario (2) ($5,000)
- Jose Ramirez (3) ($5,200)
- Josh Naylor (4) ($3,800)
- Franmil Reyes (5) ($3,400)
The Guardians’ big moneyline odds aren’t just because of McKenzie. Their offense is also expected to have an outstanding performance, with a 5.3 run implied total against the visiting Tigers.
Detroit is rolling out starter Elvin Rodriguez ($5,600) tonight. Rodriguez is a rookie who was not in the Tigers’ rotation plans coming into the season, but a rash of injuries have forced their hand. Through five appearances this season, he has an 11.51 ERA. While his leading indicators suggest he’s not that bad, he’s still probably the worst starting pitcher on the slate.
That makes the Guardians a strong stack given their very reasonable price tags, with only Rosario and Ramirez even somewhat expensive. Leadoff hitter Kwan is a massive standalone value. The rookie is hitting .280 on the season, and I’d expect his .304 BABIP to improve a bit based on his 60-grade speed tool.
Notable, left-handed hitters have a much better Park Factor in Cleveland, so Naylor, Ramirez, and Kwan should be the priority here. Still, any Guardians bats are likely to provide value given the (lack of) quality of the pitching matchup.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top non-Padres DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves are on the road total tonight and have the highest implied total on the slate. They’re facing the Nationals Anibal Sanchez ($4,100), whom I would’ve sworn was retired an hour ago.
Sanchez hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2020 and wasn’t great even then. After a solid career in Florida, Detroit, and Atlanta, he signed with the Nationals in 2019. In two seasons there, he never had a SIERA below 5.00 or a strikeout rate above 20%.
Making your first big-league appearance in almost two years against the Braves is a tough ask, with Atlanta as a top-10 offense in the majors.
Atlanta is pricey but could be maneuvered around some cheaper Guardians hitters. I want as much Braves exposure as possible. Even once Sanchez leaves the game, he’ll give way to the seventh-worst bullpen by ERA in the majors.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Tommy Edman 2B/SS ($3,300 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Tyler Anderson)
Edman is very cheap given his role as the leadoff hitter for the Red Birds. Much of his projection is based on hitting first, so be sure to keep an eye on our MLB Lineups as we approach lock. He has a somewhat tricky matchup with Tyler Anderson ($9,000) of the Dodgers, but St. Louis is implied for a solid 4.1 runs.
The bigger appeal is that Anderson is a lefty, and Edman has fairly extreme platoon splits. His career OPS against southpaws is .825, compared to just .698 against righties. Coupled with his multi-position eligibility, he’s a solid cheap option to fit around more expensive stacks.
Sam Huff C ($2,400 DraftKings; $2,100 FanDuel) Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners (Marco Gonzales)
Huff is in a solid spot considering his near-minimum salary on DraftKings. He’s a catcher, so he’s filling a position with relatively low production. He’s also set to bat sixth, which is somewhat rare for a bargain catcher.
The matchup is also a good one. Marco Gonzales ($6,500) of the Rangers has a 5.17 SIERA on the season. While he has an ERA in the low threes, all of the leading indicators suggest he’s gotten very lucky this season.
Texas unsurprisingly features the best hitting weather on the slate as well, with temperatures in the 90s. Huff has just a .646 OPS on the season, but his prospect grades say he should settle in far above that. Tonight would be a good time for him to start.
Alex Bregman 3B ($5,000 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
Both of today’s top stacks feature star third baseman, so looking elsewhere at the position could be a contrarian option. Bregman is a great way to do that, thanks to a matchup with Angels lefty Reid Detmers ($6,700). Detmers has ERA and SIERA numbers in the mid-fours, leading to an implied 4.7-run total for Houston.
The fact that he’s left-handed is also a boon to Bregman. Bregman has a lifetime average of .301 and a .933 OPS against lefties. He’s projecting just behind Ramirez in both systems but would be massively plus-EV if his ownership comes in significantly lower.
Pictured above: Corbin Burnes
Photo credit: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images
