The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Justin Verlander ($10,400) Houston Astros (-186) at Cleveland Guardians
Verlander is the only pitcher on Thursday’s slate priced above five figures, which reflects his ability compared to the rest of the field. It’s been vintage JV this season, with an absurd 1.81 ERA through 19 starts. While that number results from some luck in his favor, his 2.94 xERA is still extremely strong.
What we haven’t seen from Verlander is the 30% strikeout rate he’s had each of his previous seasons in Houston. He’s sitting at a respectable 25.6%, but that means his upside is somewhat limited. Usually, that would be a bigger issue, but the lack of other top options on the slate limits my concern level.
For what it’s worth, Verlander has picked up the strikeouts of late, fanning at least eight in four consecutive outings. That’s the same number of times he did it in his first 15 starts of the year, so he appears to be trending in the right direction as he returns to full strength.
He’s matched up with the Guardians, who have a league-average 100 wRC+ on the season. Verlander leads THE BAT’s median and ceiling projection on Wednesday while coming in a close third in the FantasyLabs projections.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Jeffrey Springs ($7,100) Tampa Bay Rays (-182) at Detroit Tigers
Springs is a converted reliever/opener who has succeeded in a more traditional starting role. This season he has a 3.14 ERA and 25.4% strikeout rate as a starter.
He also has a solid matchup against the Tigers, one of the league’s worst offenses. On the other hand, Detroit has been solid against lefty pitching, with a 104 wRC+ in 2022. I’d expect that number to regress a bit following the trade of Robbie Grossman, though. Grossman had a .999 OPS against southpaws for Detroit in 2022.
That makes the matchup more appealing for Springs, and Vegas is giving the Tigers just a 3.5-run implied total, the lowest on the slate. That’s a clear value at a salary of $7,100, with Springs carrying Vegas data virtually identical to the far more expensive Verlander.
However, storms are possible in Detroit tonight. The forecast suggests they should move through relatively quickly, but any delay is generally enough to see pitchers replaced. Be sure to follow FantasyLabs MLB on Twitter for the latest updates.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Noah Syndergaard ($7,600) Philadelphia Phillies (-235) vs. Washington Nationals
Thor is the slate’s biggest favorite as he makes his Phillies debut on Thursday. He’s taking on the depleted Nationals, arguably the major’s worst offensive team following their trade of Juan Soto and Josh Bell.
Syndergaard had been solid with the Angels this season, featuring a 3.83 ERA and roughly similar supporting metrics. His strikeout rate is a disappointing 18.9%, but he’s due for some regression in that department. His swinging strike rate of 10.5% suggests a strikeout rate in the low 20s.
The Nationals are implied for just 3.6 runs, so Thor stands out as one of the best picks based on Vegas data relative to his price. He may not need massive strikeout numbers on a thin slate to boost GPP lineups.
Alek Manoah ($9,600) Toronto Blue Jays (-121) at Minnesota Twins
Manoah is in a tough spot from a salary standpoint, as at $9,600, he’s a bit overpriced for his likeliest outcome. That’s because he’s taking on a solid Twins offense as only a slight favorite.
Of course, strong pitchers who are a bit overpriced are typically strong targets for GPPs. The price point generally suppresses ownership, and good pitching tends to beat good hitting.
Manoah is undoubtedly “good pitching,” as he comes into the game with a 2.43 ERA. Like Syndergaard, we’d prefer a bit more strikeout upside; his 22.6% strikeout rate is roughly league average. The Twins aren’t a particularly strikeout-prone matchup either.
Still, Manoah trails only Springs in median and ceiling projections in the FantasyLabs models. At somewhat lower projected ownership — and with delay risk in Detroit — Manoah might be the better overall play.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
- Kyle Schwarber (1) ($5,300)
- Rhys Hoskins (2) ($4,000)
- Alec Bohm (3) ($3,900)
- J.T. Realmuto (4) ($4,700)
- Nick Castellanos (5) ($3,200)
The Phillies are the only team implied for more than five runs on Thursday, clearing that mark by a wide margin with a 5.6-run implied total. They’re hosting the Nationals and starter Paolo Espino ($5,800), who’s worked primarily out of the bullpen this season.
While Espino has solid overall numbers, things look a bit worse when considering only his starts. His ERA as a starter is 4.95, with a FIP of 5.94. Against a formidable Phillies lineup, those numbers could be even worse by this time tomorrow.
This stack also takes care of the tricky catcher position with Realmuto, who leads the position in median projection by a decent margin in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections. With reasonable prices all around, they’re sure to be a popular stack.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top non-Phillies DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Astros have a more challenging matchup against Zach Plesac ($7,200) and the Guardians. Plesac has a respectable 4.33 ERA, though his 5.52 xERA suggests he’s due for some regression in that department. Houston is tied for third in the majors in wRC+, so they could certainly get the better of this matchup.
Houston is also on the road, providing the added bonus of a guaranteed ninth inning at the plate. With Verlander as one of the top pitching options, stacking the Astros also provides some minor correlation between offensive success and the four-point pitcher win bonus.
Finally, ownership should be reasonable on Houston. They’re a bit pricier than the Phillies despite having worse betting data, so they’ll be the less popular option.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Javier Baez SS ($4,700 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Jeffrey Springs)
Baez is matched up with a lefty pitcher again, so he’s automatically worth mentioning. While Springs is a somewhat difficult matchup, Baez’s ridiculous numbers against lefties suggest he has the edge. He’s hitting .333 with a .909 OPS against southpaws on the season.
He’ll also be a sneaky play. With Springs standing out as one of the more popular pitchers, hitters against him will be lower-owned. On top of that, the rainout risk in Detroit will keep some away from players in this game. He’s a better play on FanDuel today, where his inexplicable 2B eligibility (he’s played no games at second this season!) and 97% Bargain Rating help his case.
J.D. Martinez OF ($4,300 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals (Kris Bubic)
Martinez is another player on the right side of his platoon splits, taking on left-handed Kris Bubic ($6,100) of the Royals. While Martinez is having a down year by his standards with an OPS of .804 overall, he’s been excellent against lefties. His OPS is 1.062 when facing southpaws this season, and he’s consistently hit them better throughout his career.
Bubic is an exploitable matchup regardless of handedness, with a 5.45 ERA coming into the game. Red Sox bats are firmly in play, especially those that hit lefties well. That includes Xander Bogaerts SS ($4,600 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel), who is a solid pivot from Baez on DraftKings if the Detroit game gets rained out.
