The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 7:15 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shohei Ohtani ($11,000) Los Angeles Angels (-155) vs. Seattle Mariners
Of course it was going to be Ohtani. The shoo-in for AL MVP is one of the top pitchers in the game right now, with lights-out stuff that has powered a 32% strikeout rate. That’s the third-best mark in the majors and one of just four pitchers over 30%.
It’s an excellent matchup for Ohtani, as the free-swinging Mariners strike out at a 26% clip against righties, which trails only the Twins for the highest rate in the league. While Seattle is a slightly above-average offense overall, they’re likely to have a difficult time putting balls in play.
He’s been more “solid” than “elite” in terms of run prevention, with a 3.43 ERA which is “only” 19th best among qualified starters. However, he’s had some bad luck, with an 18.4% HR/FB rate that’s second-most in the majors. While some of his elevated numbers are due to his style — faster pitches travel farther when hit — some are also plain bad luck.
Either way, he’s an excellent play on a short slate in all contest types. He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections in median and ceiling.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Adrian Houser ($5,200) Milwaukee Brewers (-130) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
It’s hard to get excited about Houser, who provides limited upside with his 17.4% strikeout rate. However, salary becomes extremely tight if trying to fit Ohtani and some top bats into lineups, making paying down at one of your pitcher spots a necessity.
Houser is probably the best option to do that, taking on a Pirates team with a below-average wRC+ of just 88 on the season. Houser has a mediocre 4.43 ERA, but we can safely assume he’ll be somewhat better than that against below-average competition.
Vegas is also cautiously on his side, with Pittsburgh implied for 4.1 runs, the third lowest on the slate. It’s somewhat rare to get a favored pitcher at his price point, which is another sign in his favor. He’s unlikely to win you any tournaments with his score, but he might free up the salary for the player who will.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is bearish on Houser’s strikeout ability, but it does expect him to keep runs off the scoreboard:
Houser leads all pitchers in Pts/Sal projection in THE BAT while ranking second in the FantasyLabs projections.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Julio Urias ($9,800) Los Angeles Dodgers (-275) vs. Oakland A’s
I’m unsure if the chalky lineup build tonight will be pairing Urias and Ohtani while spending down on hitters or pairing one of the top pitchers with a cheaper option and saving some salary for bats. Either way, Urias is projecting for lower ownership than Ohtani while saving $1,200 in salary.
His numbers are nowhere near Ohtani levels, with a 22.6% strikeout rate and 4.98 ERA. To be fair, he’s been unlucky in both regards. His swinging strike rate and ERA indicators all point to better numbers moving forward, though still not in the same neighborhood as Ohtani.
He does have a much better matchup, though. Oakland features a 94 wRC+ against lefties, compared to Seattle’s 103 number against righties. That’s a big part of why the A’s have the lowest implied total on the slate, and the Dodgers the best moneyline odds.
I like the idea of pairing Ohtani and Urias while scraping for cheap hitters as a somewhat-unique way to build for GPPs. Additionally, pivoting to Urias and a cheaper pitcher — while rostering hitters against the Angels — could provide some leverage.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
In the first three games of their four-game series against the Reds, the Cubs have scored a ridiculous 41 runs. What do they have in store for the finale?
The Cubs have a slate-leading six-run implied total tonight against Luke Weaver ($6,000), who comes into the game with a 6.80 ERA. On top of that, the Reds’ bullpen is running thin thanks to the brutal series, which could mean another offensive explosion for Chicago.
The Cubs are also reasonably cheap, making them an obvious stacking option on a small slate. They’ll be chalky, but we have plenty of opportunity to get unique in other lineup spots.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jorge Polanco 2B/3B ($4,400 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals (Matthew Liberatore)
The Twins are the rare MLB team with much worse splits against left-handed pitching than against righties. They rank 29th in wRC+ against southpaws at 83 but eighth against right-handed pitching at 108.
They’re facing the left-handed Liberatore today, who’s bounced back and forth between the majors and the minors but amassed a 6.75 big-league ERA. That creates a tricky situation as we have bad pitching facing bad hitting as a team.
However, using our PlateIQ tool, we can identify a Twins hitter who might break that mold a bit:
That’s Polanco, who has a limited sample size against lefties this season, but solid numbers against them throughout his career.
Elly De La Cruz 3B/SS ($6,100 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (Jameson Taillon)
De La Cruz is on the other side of the platoon splits spectrum. He’s a switch hitter but should maybe consider batting exclusively left-handed. As a lefty, he has an .842 OPS. When facing lefties, that number drops to .588.
He’s also contributed 17 steals through 48 games in the majors, giving him plenty of upside with his legs. I’ll be looking his way on FanDuel, where his meager price tag results in a 99% Bargain Rating.
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B ($3,500 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers (Adrian Houser)
I prefer Hayes over De La Cruz on DraftKings when considering the price. He occupies the leadoff spot in the Pirates lineup but costs just $3,500 despite their solid 4.1-run implied total.
He’s hitting an acceptable .248 this season but also has a BABIP about 20 points off his career rate, so he should be hitting a bit over .260 if that number regresses to his average — which it should given his solid foot speed.
I also have no problem playing both Hayes and Houser. Given the salaries on both, it’s pretty easy for them both to pay off return value, and on a smaller slate, it’s also an excellent way to build a unique lineup.
