The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Merrill Kelly ($9,100) Arizona Diamondbacks (-170) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Given the small size of the slate, we’re naturally forced to make some tradeoffs between matchup and ability with our pitcher selection. There’s not really an option that maximizes both categories, evidenced by the lack of teams with an implied Vegas total in the threes.
The Reds are tied for the lowest on the slate at 4.1 runs, making Kelly arguably the top pitching option. He’s had a career resurgence over the past two seasons, with a 3.37 ERA last year and a 3.13 mark this year. His 4.36 xERA is concerning, but the sample size is large enough that we can probably trust that he’s better than the “expected” numbers would indicate.
Ideally, we’d get a higher strikeout rate than Kelly’s 25.4%, given his price tag. Still, that’s good for third-best on the slate, so there aren’t many better options. It’s also not a bad matchup with the Reds, who rank 19th against right-handed pitching on the season.
Kelly leads THE BAT projections for median and ceiling while ranking second in the FantasyLabs models.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jesse Scholtens ($5,000) Chicago White Sox (-145) vs. Oakland A’s
Scholtens is an occasional reliever who switched to a full-time starting role this month. In his four starts across that span, he has three quality starts, with the lone exception being a game at Coors Field. He’s also picked up a solid 19 strikeouts across 21 innings, though his season-long K/9 rate is considerably lower at 6.37.
All of which is to say the rookie has made some strides in the past month and now gets the easiest matchup he’s had as a starter in quite some time. Oakland ranks 24th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, with a top-three strikeout rate at 25.2%.
But we aren’t even that concerned about strikeouts, as a five-or-six-inning start with only a run or two allowed would be more than enough to pay off Scholtens’ price tag. Any Ks he picks up along the way are merely a bonus, making him one of the best plays on the slate.
Scholtens leads or is tied for the lead in Pts/Sal projection in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projection sets.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Pablo Lopez ($10,600) Minnesota Twins (-125) vs. Texas Rangers
Lopez is on the other side of the “matchup vs. ability” debate with Kelly. Lopez is the best pitcher on the main slate, with a 29.9% strikeout rate and 3.51 ERA. While his ERA is a tick higher than Kelly’s, his 3.09 xERA is more than a full run lower.
Unfortunately, Lopez has a matchup with the Rangers, a top-three offense against righties this season. The old adage is that good pitching beats good hitting, but we’d still prefer to avoid rostering arms against baseball’s top offenses. Lopez has slightly worse Vegas data — both moneyline odds and implied runs — than Kelly, despite his salary being $1,500 more expensive.
All of which makes it hard to sacrifice the salary to pay up for Lopez. However, with most of the field thinking that way, his ownership should lag well behind. Coupled with his strikeout-based upside, that makes him a solid pivot from — or complement to — Kelly.
I’m restricting my Lopez exposure to larger field GPPs but will certainly mix him in some of my rosters.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Chicago White Sox:
The case for the White Sox is pretty straightforward today. Despite having the highest implied total on the slate at 5.5 runs, their top-five hitters are one of the cheapest combinations to stack.
That means their ownership projection will be through the roof, making them more suited for cash games and smaller field GPPs or lineups where you go off the board at pitching. Still, from a pure points-per-dollar standpoint, they’re drastically underpriced today.
Most of their projection is based on an excellent pitching matchup with the A’s Ken Waldichuk ($5,300), a lefty with a 5.91 ERA on the season. The matchup also puts Chicago on the strong side of their platoon splits, as they rank dead last in wRC+ against righties but a more tolerable 21st against lefties.
They’re still not a good offense by any stretch, so they’re far from a sure thing. I’ll be loading up on them in smaller-field contests while looking to pivot in GPPs.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Corey Seager SS ($6,600 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel) Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins (Pablo Lopez)
In lineups without Lopez, I’ll be looking to increase my leverage by rostering hitters against him. Given the cost savings on the White Sox stack, we can afford to pay up to do so, leaving Seager as the best option.
While he’s pricey on both sites, he leads THE BAT projections on both platforms. Additionally, Lopez has been slightly worse against left-handed hitters this season, so all signs point to him as a top option. I like him as a pivot to Tim Anderson, who has struggled to provide much upside this season but is projected as the most popular shortstop.
Ketel Marte 2B ($5,300 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds (Brandon Williamson)
Thanks to the Chicago stack, Marte is another expensive player who’s easy to access. Unlike Seager, he also doesn’t require any shuffling of the White Sox to fit, making him an even easier option. I also like the correlation between Marte and the Diamondbacks’ offense with Kelly, especially on a smaller slate.
His leadoff spot in the Diamondbacks lineup is valuable tonight, given Arizona’s 5.1-run total that ranks second on the slate. He provides plenty of upside in his own right, too, with a .279 batting average and 20 home runs on the season.
Gunnar Henderson 3B/SS ($5,200 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Jose Berrios)
Henderson is the top third baseman today, with a slate-leading projection in THE BAT and FantasyLabs models. It’s easy to see why when checking out our PlateIQ tool:
Besides Henderson’s numbers, the tool also allows you to view pitcher splits by opponent handedness. Toronto’s Jose Berrios ($8,200) has been considerably worse against lefties, with a .335 wOBA allowed compared to .269 against righties.
Henderson is an even better play on FanDuel, where he has a 90% Bargain Rating.
