The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 7:15 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Lance Lynn ($9,400) Los Angeles Dodgers (-148) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Compared to yesterday’s main slate, which featured a slew of viable high-salary pitchers, it’s relatively slim pickings at the top tonight. No team has a Vegas implied total of less than four, so there’s no obvious answer at pitcher.
However, Lynn seems to be the best of the bunch. The Brewers are implied for exactly four runs — the lowest on the slate — while Los Angeles is the heaviest favorite. Lynn has been solid in his three starts in Dodger Blue, allowing just four earned runs through 18 innings of work.
His bloated season-long ERA was somewhat reflective of the awful defense behind him in Chicago, where the White Sox rank 29th in defensive run saved (DRS). With the Dodgers ranking sixth, that’s a massive swing that should see his 5.88 ERA regress toward his 3.93 xFIP.
Lynn also has solid strikeout numbers, with a 27.4% K rate on the season. That gives him more than enough upside for GPPs. He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections in median and ceiling tonight.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Tarik Skubal ($7,200) Detroit Tigers (-136) at Cleveland Guardians
Skubal is another player who’s been considerably better than his ERA would indicate. He has xERA and xFIP numbers below 3.00 through seven starts but an ERA of 4.18. Given the small sample size so far, it’s likely that those numbers meet somewhere in the middle.
He also has an excellent matchup today. The Guardians have been dreadful against left-handed pitching this season, with their 78 wRC+ better than only the Rockies. That should help push his ERA closer to where his leading indicators say it should be.
Unfortunately for Skubal, they’re also notoriously hard to strike out, with the lowest rate against left-handed pitching in the league. That limits his upside despite his strong 27.7% mark on the season. On a brighter note, given his meager salary, he doesn’t need a massive score to return value.
I’m targeting Skubal for cash games while giving him a strong look in GPPs, depending on how ownership projections shake out between him and Rich Hill. Either way, Skubal is underpriced on DraftKings, where he has an excellent 95% Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Rich Hill ($6,400) San Diego Padres (-115) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Like Lynn, Hill is another pitcher who should benefit from the change of scenery to a more defensively capable team. He began the year in Pittsburgh, a roughly league-average defense with 11 DRS on the season. Now in San Diego, he has the league’s third-best defense by DRS at 37.
While it’s been a rocky start to his Padres tenure with nine earned runs in two appearances, six came against the powerhouse Dodgers. This is his second start against Arizona, after striking out four and allowing three earned runs the last time out.
The Diamondbacks have an 88 wRC+ against lefties since July 1st, and while they have a below-average strikeout rate, it’s still considerably higher than the Guardians. That makes Hill a bit less comfortable of a pick than Skubal, but there’s an argument to be made that he has the superior upside.
The salary difference from Skubal to Hill isn’t enough for me to pivot in a vacuum, but the projected ownership changes things. Skubal is projected for approximately 7% higher ownership than Hill, making Hill arguably the stronger GPP play depending on contest size and type.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Mets:
Most of the field will be looking to load up on hitters in the Mets/Cardinals game tonight, which has a 10.0-run total juiced to the over. The visiting Mets are implied for 5.7 of those runs, with the added benefit of being the visiting team and getting a guaranteed ninth trip to the plate.
While they’re somewhat expensive, the lack of costly pitching options makes fitting a straight 1-5 Mets stack fairly easy today. That should make them very popular, but outside of pivoting to their opponents, there are not many options to work around that.
They’re hard to fade completely against Adam Wainwright ($5,000), given the Cardinal’s legend has an 8.78 ERA on the season. Full stacks may be a bit chalky for GPPs, but you’ll want some exposure.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Tommy Edman SS ($4,000 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets (Jose Quintana)
I mentioned the Cardinals as a possible pivot from the Mets, and Edman is my favorite starting point if you’re looking their way. While the Cardinals are packed with hitters on the correct side of their platoon splits against the lefty Quintana, Edman stands out in our PlateIQ tool:
Besides having some of the best numbers on the team, he’s also occupying the leadoff spot in their lineup, all at a very reasonable salary. That’s particularly true on FanDuel, where he has a 76% Bargain Rating and some extra positional eligibility at 2B and OF.
Akil Baddoo OF ($2,900 DraftKings; $2,400 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians (Xzavion Curry)
Baddoo may never reclaim the magic of his rookie season, but he’s quietly been a solid option for the Tigers this season. His .222 batting average leaves much to be desired, but he’s averaging roughly one steal and one home run every ten games, giving him moderate upside.
With Detroit implied for a solid 4.6 runs, he’s a bit underpriced for his role as their leadoff hitter. He’s an excellent complement to more expensive stacks and won’t kill your lineups even with a disappointing score.
Christian Walker 1B ($5,200 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres (Rich Hill)
Both first basemen in the Mets/Cardinals game — Paul Goldschmidt and Pete Alonso — should be pretty chalky today on DraftKings. That leaves Walker out of the mix, which could be a massive opportunity in lineups that are fading Hill.
Walker is one of the best lefty-mashers in baseball right now, with a 1.058 OPS against southpaws, compared to a more pedestrian .843 against righties. He’s an excellent pivot that also provides leverage against one of the more popular pitchers on the slate.
