The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a 5-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Kevin Gausman ($9,000) Toronto Blue Jays (-210) at Kansas City Royals
With bad weather across the country leading to four overnight PPDs, Gausman slots into the “stud pitcher” category almost by default. He’s the only arm on the slate priced in the $9,000s, as well as the only pitcher with team moneyline odds above -200.
Which isn’t to say he’s not a strong play in his own right. Over the last three seasons, he’s had xFIP numbers in the low 3.00 range or below and topped a 28% strikeout rate every year. The Royals are implied for a slate-low 3.4 runs against him today. Their offense has been brutal to start the season, with the league’s worst WRC+ after falling below Detroit.
Gausman ranks in the top two in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT predictions and should easily live up to his salary today. He also has the best (or tied for best) Park Factor and Weather Rating for pitchers on the slate, so there’s not much reason to fade him other than ownership.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Chris Sale ($7,500) Boston Red Sox (-145) at Detroit Tigers
Sale has had a horrible time staying healthy in recent memory, with just over 50 innings pitched since the start of the 2021 season. Still, he’s shown flashes of the elite pitcher he was at his peak when he makes it on the field. Sale had a rough start to this season — allowing seven runs in just three innings — but he was effective in limited work over the past two years.
Sale’s ability to miss bats is still there, though, with six strikeouts in his 2023 debut (good for a strikeout rate over 30%). While much of it is on him for allowing hard contact, his 100% HR/FB ratio and .571 BABIP in his first start are pretty clearly due for some regression.
Fortunately, he gets a much softer matchup this time around against the Tigers. While they showed flashes of life in their last series, they came into the season as the worst lineup in baseball and could especially struggle against left-handed pitching this season.
Sale joins Gausman among the top two pitchers in both projection sets in terms of median and ceiling, while his discounted price tag makes him the obvious leader in Pts/Sal.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Lance Lynn ($8,400) Chicago White Sox (-140) vs. San Francisco Giants
One thing jumped out at me immediately about this game: the umpire. Last season, I discovered that umpires play a major, predictable role in fantasy performance for both hitters and pitchers. Our models include data on every home plate umpire, with the average impact they’ve had on players’ Plus/Minus throughout their careers.
D.J. Reyburn is behind the plate for this one, with an average Plus/Minus added of 1.5 points. This is exactly the kind of under-the-radar trend that can help you in GPPs. Obviously, this applies to both Lynn and his opponent, the Giants’ Alex Wood ($8,000).
However, Lynn is my preferred pick here. He’s been better in most of the important stat categories for DFS arms — including SIERA, swinging strike rate, and strikeout percentage. He also has far better Vegas data, with the Giants implied for just 3.8 runs.
This is also the coldest-weather game on the slate, which provides another boost to pitchers. I’ll be mixing in both arms in GPPs, but Lynn is the better choice for single-entry play.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Washington Nationals:
For the first time this season, we have games at Coors Field. Both the Nationals and Rockies are implied north of five runs here, with the visiting Nationals getting the nod in our models thanks to lower expected ownership and bargain-basement pricing.
It’s not a bad pitching matchup for Washington either, against Kyle Freeland ($7,300) of the Rockies. He has a career xFIP of 4.52 (which takes his home ballpark into consideration) and isn’t well suited for pitching at Coors. He’s a low-strikeout pitch-to-contact type, which is suboptimal when the ball carries that well in the thin air of Denver.
Washington’s lineup isn’t exactly star-studded, so they’re far from a lock for a big score today. However, all it takes is a few balls in the air to see them post a massive price-considered score.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Kris Bryant OF ($5,100 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals (Josiah Gray)
While Freeland isn’t the ideal pitcher for games at Coors Field, Gray is even more ill-suited. He has the lowest groundball rate (considering all of 2022 and 2023) of any pitcher on the slate and a mediocre 11% swinging strike rate. All of the Rockies are in play today, but Bryant stands out as the best option.
He has the highest projected ceiling in both projection sets and only narrowly trails CJ Cron ($5,800 DraftKings; $4,200 FanDuel) for the best median projection. With a significant discount on both sites, he’s the better pick from a salary standpoint.
Of course, stacking the Rockies is an obvious choice as well. Their 6.2-run implied total leads the slate.
Javier Baez SS ($4,200 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox (Chris Sale)
If fading the chalky Sale today, it makes sense to roster a Tiger or two. Baez is my preferred option, despite a frigid start to the season where he’s hitting just .095. He’s cut his strikeout rate down, so it’s primarily bad luck on balls in play contributing to his skid. His .125 BABIP is due for major regression.
The biggest factor in rostering Baez is his platoon splits. While he underperformed overall last season, he hit over .300 against lefties, with an .834 OPS. Sliders from righties have been Baez’s kryptonite, but it’s less of an issue with lefties as the pitch breaks toward Baez.
He’s a bit overpriced for his projection, making him a “pay up to be contrarian” choice on Thursday. However, he (and the Tigers in general) could pay off if Sale is unable to regain his form.
Andrew Vaughn 1B ($3,700 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants (Alex Wood)
While I’m a bit scared of hitters from this game thanks to the umpiring situation (see above), Vaughn is one potential exception. He’s fairly priced on both sites and also holds outfield eligibility on FanDuel. He’s another hitter on the strong side of his platoon splits against a lefty arm.
Vaughn has a career OPS of .846 against lefties, compared to .693 against right-handed pitching. Players like this tend to be priced for their overall production, not the matchup of the day. While he’s unlikely to see all of his at-bats against southpaws, his first two or three trips to the plate will be.
