The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features 10 games starting at 12:10 p.m. ET to close out a weekend of September baseball as teams continue their push toward the postseason. As of this morning, keep an eye on the weather in Atlanta, St. Louis, Cincinnati and Detroit, which all have the potential for rain in the forecast
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Max Fried ($10,500) Atlanta Braves (-275) vs. Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves ace Max Fried looks to be in an ideal spot Sunday against a Miami Marlins lineup with a 2.7-implied-run total, the lowest on the slate. Priced at a sky-high $10,500 on DraftKings as the most expensive pitcher, Fried jumps to the top of our Player Model. A young up-and-coming talent, Fried has made 25 starts this season, posting a 12-5 record, 2.56 ERA, 22% K rate, and 1.04 WHIP. Further, Fried has five or more strikeouts in five of his last six starts and should make easy work despite facing a disciplined Marlins lineup with a 0.264 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a .288 wOBA, as he’s projected for 6.38 strikeouts.
Frankie Montas ($8,400) New York Yankees (-125) at Tampa Bay Rays
A trade-deadline acquisition, New York Yankees pitcher Frankie Montas should be an easy play at SP1 on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Rays despite Tampa’s 3.5-implied-run total and a .321 average wOBA. In 24 starts this season, Montas has a 4-11 record with a 3.94 ERA, 23% K rate, and 1.21 WHIP. Montas is projected for 6.33 strikeouts despite a less-than-ideal matchup against a Rays lineup with a 0.221 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
A spend-down option from Fried, Montas should be able to provide a floor for lineups, but he may need to rely on the Yankees’ power bats for added run support.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Shawn Armstrong ($4,000) Tampa Bay Ray (+105) vs. New York Yankees
Opposite of Montas, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Shawn Armstrong projects as one of the top values on the slate Sunday, priced at near-minimum $4,000 on DraftKings against a tough New York Yankees lineup. Despite a higher 3.7-implied-run total and a Yankees lineup that has a 0.238 strikeout-per-at-bat average, fantasy viability remains for Armstrong, given his extremely low salary on DraftKings and high strikeout upside, as he’s projected for 4.94 strikeouts Sunday. By no means is Armstrong a safe play, as the seven-year journeyman has made just one start this season and he might not be fully stretched out.
However, if Armstrong can limit damage from the powerful Yankees, he should allow rosters to unlock higher-priced bats.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Miles Mikolas ($8,800) St. Louis Cardinals (-190) vs. Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Miles Mikolas looks to be an excellent GPP option at SP1 and should come in at lower ownership while also projecting for one of the highest ceilings on the slate. Making 27 starts this season, Mikolas continues to be a consistent arm, posting a 10-10 record with a 3.48 ERA, 18% K rate, and 1.22 WHIP. Mikolas faces a Chicago Cubs lineup with a 0.250 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a .311 wOBA. Even with the 3.2-implied-run total, Mikolas certainly can reach an 85th-percentile outcome with strikeout upside, as he’s projected for 4.56 strikeouts.
Mikolas should be considered a viable option at SP1 and warrants a second look despite weather concerns that might keep his ownership low.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- C.J. Cron (4) ($5,100)
- Brendan Rodgers (2) ($4,700)
- Ryan McMahon (1) ($4,800)
- Jose Iglesias (5) ($4,400)
- Charlie Blackmon (3) ($4,700)
Implied for 3.9 runs, the Colorado Rockies look to be a top stack option Sunday and are in a prime position to generate runs against Chase Anderson and the Cincinnati Reds in an ideal ballpark. The Rockies are full of power at the top of the order, posting a 0.239 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a .328 wOBA, and they face a starting pitcher in Anderson who has made one start this season.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings. This Rockies stack comes at an expensive $23,700 price tag and looks affordable enough to access to higher-priced secondary stacks or top-tier pitching.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the Texas Rangers:
The Rangers’ top-of-the-order stack projects for one of the highest ceilings, according to THE BAT. Priced at a cheaper $22,300 on DraftKings compared to the Rockies, the Rangers offense gets a matchup against Boston Red Sox pitcher Josh Winckowski with a 4.6-implied-run total, one of the highest on the slate. The Rangers are disciplined at the plate, posting a 0.250 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a .315 wOBA, and look to be a nuisance for Winckowski, who has a 5-7 record with a 5.83 ERA, 13% K rate, and 1.56 WHIP in 13 starts.
Expect the runs to come in bulk from this lineup, especially in a hitter’s venue like Fenway Park.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Jonathan India OF ($5,000 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies (Jose Urena)
Removing the Rockies and Rangers in search of possible one-off plays, Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jonathan India has the highest rating in our model on DraftKings. India should be a popular option Sunday against pitcher Jose Urena of the Rockies. Projected to bat leadoff, India should kickstart the Reds’ offense, which is implied for 4.3 runs. Look for the Cincinnati standout to be a great one-off option Sunday with a $5,000 price tag on DraftKings.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,500 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (Shawn Armstong)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, New York Yankees superstar outfielder Aaron Judge should be in the conversation Sunday, as he is projected for one of the highest ceilings. Facing pitcher Shawn Armstrong should be no problem for the virtually matchup-proof Judge, who is slashing .296/.399/.666 with 52 home runs. Judge is an easy choice for a ceiling outcome with home-run upside.
Vimael Machin 3B ($2,000 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles (Spenser Watkins)
When looking for value, Vimael Machin jumps to the top with the highest projected Plus/Minus. Machin, at the minimum price tag on DraftKings, is slashing .230/.304/.283. Oakland has an implied total of 3.8 runs, and Machin — who is projected to bat second — should have an ideal outing in a matchup with a high implied total, which should also open up rosters to more expensive pitching options.
