The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features seven games starting at 1:05 p.m. ET to close out another weekend of spring baseball action. Keep an eye in the weather in Minnesota, which has potential to wash out.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($10,000) New York Yankees (-245) vs. Texas Rangers
After missing Saturday’s matchup against the Rangers, New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole gets another crack at a projected lineup with a 0.270 strikeout-per-at-bat average. In five starts this season, Cole has pitched 24 innings and produced a 10.13 K/9, 3.00 ERA, and 27% K rate, and he looks to have caught his stride after a few rocky outings. Cole has the highest projected strikeouts on the slate at 8.92 and should have no issue mowing down a weak Rangers offense with a slate-low 2.8-implied-run total.
In similar situations, Cole has exceeded expectations. Per the Trends tool, when Cole is a home favorite greater than -245, he has averaged 27.06 actual DraftKings points with a +8.03 Plus/Minus. Sunday’s matchup might be one not to overthink; Cole stands at the top of the SP1 list.
Alek Manoah ($10,100) Toronto Blue Jays (NA) vs. Cleveland Guardians
While not a brand-name option like Cole, Toronto Blue Jays ace Alek Manoah has had a standout season thus far. In five starts, he has pitched 31 innings with a 9.29 K/9, 1.45 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 27% K rate. Manoah should benefit from a favorite Weather Rating in Cleveland and is projected for 6.04 strikeouts against a projected Guardians lineup with a 0.263 strikeout-per-at-bat average. As the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings at $10,100, it might be more prudent to take the savings with Cole despite the win-bonus upside of Manoah.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Jordan Lyles ($4,900) Baltimore Orioles (-108) vs. Kansas City Royals
Cole projects as the top value on the slate, however, if comfortable with extreme savings, look toward Jordan Lyles, who is priced at $4,900 on Sunday’s slate. Lyles, who is known to have blow-up games, has thrown 26 innings in five starts this season with a 17% K rate and a 4.50 ERA. Lyles has a tough matchup in Camden Yards, but he’s projected for 4.53 strikeouts against a projected Royals lineup with a 3.8-implied-run total and a 0.262 strikeout-to-at-bat average.
With two top arms priced above $10,000, Lyles might be almost a necessity to incorporate higher-priced bats in ideal situations.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Tyler Mahle ($6,700) Cincinnati Reds (-130) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Cincinnati Reds have been terrible to start this season and, while he’s by no means a safe play, pitcher Tyler Mahle might be a sneaky option at SP2. Playing in Great American Ballpark is not an easy venue, and the hitter-friendly ballpark is incorporated in the Pirates’ 3.8-implied-run total. Projected for more than six strikeouts, Mahle can reach value facing a mediocre-at-best Pirates lineup with a .188 wOBA. In six starts this season, Mahle has a 1-4 record, throwing 25.2 innings with a 9.12 K/9 and an astronomical 7.01 ERA.
There is no reward without risk, and playing Mahle is certainly risky, but it might be necessary to get a 99th-percentile outcome.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model , when generated by median projection, belongs to the Houston Astros:
- Jose Altuve (1) ($5,000)
- Alex Bregman (3) ($5,100)
- Michael Brantley (2) ($3,900)
- Yordan Alvarez (4) ($5,600)
- Kyle Tucker (6) ($3,600)
This stacked Astros lineup comes at a premium, costing $23,900 on DraftKings, but it’s in an absolute smash spot against Wily Peralta, a veteran who has thrown 8.1 innings with a 10.80 K/9, 2.29 ERA and 29.4% K rate in six games. Despite the decent numbers as a reliever, I will choose to disregard them with Peralta opening a bullpen game Sunday against a disciplined Astros lineup with 0.197 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one the lowest in all of baseball
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings, but I’m OK with choosing Kyle Tucker — who is projected to bat sixth — over Yuli Gurriel, with Tucker having better success against righties, posting a .298 wOBA differential and a .196 ISO differential. Choose to load up on the Astros on Sunday.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
The power bats of the Blue Jays have a prime matchup against rookie pitcher Konnor Pilkington, who has moved up the Cleveland Guardian ranks. Pitching five innings in the majors this year, Pilkington has a 9.00 K/9, allowing two hits and striking out five batters in relief.
Similar to the Astros, the Blue Jays have a lofty price tag at more than $23,300 and have a 0.183 strikeout-per-at-bat average. It remains to be seen how stretched out Pilkington is for Sunday’s matchup, but the Blue Jays should take full advantage of the rookie arm.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Byron Buxton OF ($6,100 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics (Daulton Jefferies)
Removing the Astros and Blue Jays in search of possible one-off plays, Minnesota Twins superstar outfielder Byron Buxton has the highest Player Rating in our model. Buxton, who is batting leadoff, kickstarts a Twins lineup with a 4.1-implied-run total, which is among the highest on the slate. Buxton’s power should make today difficult for Athletics pitcher Daulton Jefferies, who has a 15% K rate and a 4.81 ERA in five starts this season.
Proceed with caution though; there are weather concerns in Minnesota, which may cause a washout.
Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($5,400 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Aaron Ashby)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. should be in the conversation Sunday, as he is projected for one of the highest ceilings. Acuna has consistent power, and despite the high Park Factor Rating in Truist Park, the leadoff batter for the Braves should be in a more ideal spot against Aaron Ashby, a second-year pitcher with a 2.33 ERA and a 25.9% K rate who has shuffled between the bullpen and the rotation this season.
Atlanta should certainly take advantage Sunday with a healthy 4.2-implied-run total.
Edward Olivares OF ($2,600 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles (Jordan Lyles)
When looking for value, Kansas City Royals outfielder Edward Olivares jumps to the top with the highest projected Plus/Minus. Olivares is priced at $2,600, and despite a low Bargain Rating, he looks to be in an ideal matchup against Jordan Lyles, who should be popular given his sub-5K price tag on DraftKings. Lyles, who is known to have blow-up games as mentioned earlier, has posted a 4.50 ERA this season.
If looking to pay up for high-priced arms or expensive stacks in the Astros and Blue Jays, look for Olivares to provide consistency and upside.
