The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Lock in for an eight-game MLB slate to close out a late-spring weekend, with the slate beginning at 1:35 p.m. ET. Today, we have several spots to keep an eye on the weather in, with trouble spots in Pittsburgh, Chicago, Kansas City, and St. Louis.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Sandy Alcantara ($9,400) Miami Marlins (-120) at Chicago Cubs
Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara highlights the Sunday slate as a top pitching option, as the Marlins are a modest favorite against the Chicago Cubs. Priced at an affordable $9,400 on DraftKings, Alcantara is one of the more consistent pitching options available and is projected for 5.53 strikeouts, which is one of the highest on the slate. He looks to have an ideal path to being a fantasy-relevant option against a Cubs lineup with a slate-low 3.5 implied total and a higher-than-average 0.274 strikeout-per-at-bat ratio.
The 2022 National League Cy Young Award winner has put up less-than-desired numbers this season, making six starts with a 1-3 record, 7.9 K/9, 20% K rate, 5.09 ERA, and 1.25 WHIP. In a 6-0 loss to the Atlanta Braves on May 2, Alcantara went five innings while striking out five batters and allowing three runs on six hits.
Expect Alcantara to be a popular option Sunday, as reflected by his slate-leading projected ownership, most likely attributed to his high strikeout upside. A word of caution — keep an eye on the weather, as a postponement or delay certainly cannot be ruled out, which is a costly risk for a top-tier pitcher.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Steven Matz ($6,600) St. Louis Cardinals (-200) vs. Detroit Tigers
St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Steven Matz projects for the highest Plus/Minus on Sunday’s slate, making him an excellent value option against a weak Detroit Tigers projected lineup with a slate-high 0.283 strikeout-per-at-bat average. A -200 favorite, Matz also has tremendous win-bonus upside.
Projected for 6.6 strikeouts at an affordable salary, Matz immediately becomes a fantasy-relevant option in addition to the win-bonus upside. Yet to find a win this season, Matz has made six starts and is 0-4 with a 6.39 ERA, 9.00 K/9, 22% K rate, and 1.71 WHIP. In his start against the Los Angeles Angels on May 2, a 6-0 loss, Matz went five innings, struck out four batters, and allowed six hits and one run.
The risk might pay dividends Sunday when rostering Matz, in a get-right spot, to get to higher-priced stacks, given the higher-than-expected strikeout average from Detroit.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Tanner Houck ($8,000) Boston Red Sox (+107) at Philadelphia Phillies
Boston Red Sox pitcher Tanner Houck looks to be a serious contender for GPPs on Sunday, likely coming in at lower-than-expected ownership with a high ceiling against a Philadelphia Phillies squad playing at home with a high implied 5.1-run total. Houck is facing a mighty Phillies team with a higher-than-average 0.262 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a high .326 wOBA — a likely boom-or-bust team. Projected for 6.31 strikeouts, which remains one of the highest on the slate, Houck looks to be an excellent pivot from Alcantara and comes at a $1400 discount.
Houck continues to put up decent numbers this season, posting a 3-1 record in six starts with a 5.43 ERA, 8.16 K/9, 21% K rate, and 1.38 WHIP. In a tough matchup, he should fly under the radar, especially with Alcantara appearing as the likely SP1.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
The mighty Blue Jays bats have a high implied total at 4.9 runs in an ideal matchup against Roansy Contreras of the Pittsburgh Pirates, who has a 7.36 K/9, 4.09 ERA, 19% K rate, and 1.46 WHIP in six starts this season.
An expensive option priced at $27,900, this hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack provides tremendous upside with a team wOBA of .332, one of the highest on the slate. This effective Blue Jays lineup can generate runs at will, and look for the top-of-the-order to be a popular choice Sunday.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Esteury Ruiz OF ($3,200 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals (Ryan Yarbrough)
Using the blended model, Oakland Athletics outfielder Esteury Ruiz has the highest rating Sunday. Projected to hit leadoff, Ruiz looks to lead an Athletics offense with a high 4.9-run total in an ideal ballpark. It’s a great matchup against Ryan Yarbrough, who has made two starts and seven relief appearances on the year, posting an 0-4 record with a 7.40 ERA, 12% K rate, and 1.50 WHIP.
Ruiz brings plenty of ability to the Athletics lineup, batting .273/.340/.352 with 16 stolen bases this season. He’s a solid one-off option or a key part of a Athletics stack against a weak pitcher.
Jose Ramirez 3B ($5,700 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins (Joe Ryan)
Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez has the highest ceiling Sunday. Projected to hit third for the Guardians, Ramirez looks to power a Guardians offense with a high 4.1-run total. It’s a tough matchup against Joe Ryan, who has made six starts on the year, posting a 5-0 record with a 2.37 ERA, 30% K rate, and 0.76 WHIP.
Ramirez brings plenty of ability and power to the Guardians lineup, batting .283/.367/.441 with three home runs this season. He’s a solid one-off option or a key part of a Guardians stack.
Ramon Laureano OF ($3,500 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals (Ryan Yarbrough)
Athletics outfielder Ramon Laureano projects as a top value option in the blended projection set in what looks to be a great spot for the A’s against the Kansas City Royals. Laureano is slated to bat second against Ryan Yarbrough, in the more ideal environment of Kauffman Stadium.
Look for plenty of opportunities to generate runs in this matchup with an implied total of 4.9 runs. In 22 games this season, Laureano is batting .224/.283/.412 with three home runs and is integral to Athletics offense, and he’s an ideal one-off play who can provide salary relief for higher-priced stacks.
