The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features 10 games starting at 1:35 p.m. ET to close out another weekend of spring baseball action. it looks like we’ll have a day of clean baseball heading into the third month of the season.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Shane Bieber ($9,000) Cleveland Guardians (-185) vs. Detroit Tigers
After having his start moved back one day because of weather, Cleveland Guardians ace Shane Bieber is expected to start Sunday against the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have a 3.3-implied-run total, which is one of the lowest on the slate. After a rocky start to the season, Bieber is looking to keep the positive momentum from his last start, when he went six innings and struck out seven batters in a no-decision against the Minnesota Twins on May 14. One of the top-rated pitchers in the Player Model, Bieber is projected for 7.95 strikeouts against a Tigers lineup with a 0.268 strikeout-per-at-bat average, one of the highest on the slate.
Even with the increase in salary on DraftKings, a $9,000 price tag is digestible, especially in an ideal matchup with huge strikeout potential.
Freddy Peralta ($10,500) Milwaukee Brewers (-250) vs. Washington Nationals
The most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta comes in as a massive -250 favorite against the Washington Nationals, who have a 3.4-implied-run total. Peralta has continued his dominance from last season, posting a 3-1 record after seven starts with a 32.4% K rate, 12.11 K/9, and 1.09 WHIP. Even with the 3.53 ERA and a tough matchup against a Washington Nationals lineup with a slate-low 0.199 strikeout-per-at-bat average, Peralta should remain in the conversation as a top-tier SP1 on Sunday and looks to be one of the more popular options on DraftKings.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Brady Singer ($4,900) Kansas City Royals (-105) vs. Minnesota Twins
Guardians ace Shane Bieber projects as the top value pitcher on the Slate. However, Royals pitcher Brady Singer also looks to be one the top values on the slate at $4,900, given his upside potential against the boom-or-bust Minnesota Twins, who have a 0.246 strikeout-per-at-bat average. A 4.1-implied-run total might cause concern, but Singer has a 4.5 strikeout projection and can open up salary relief, especially in a matchup with a pitcher-friendly Weather Rating; winds are forecasted to blow in at Kauffman Stadium with cooler-than-expected temperatures.
There is certainly risk involved with rostering Singer, who has made only one start this season and might not be totally stretched out.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Merrill Kelly ($8,600) Arizona Diamondbacks (+105) at Chicago Cubs
Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly looks to have ceiling potential and should be a lower-owned option despite facing a strikeout-prone Chicago Cubs lineup. Kelly has had an up-and-down season, posting a 3-2 record, with an 8.18 K/9, 21.7% K rate and a 1.27 WHIP after eight starts. Sunday’s matchup at Wrigley Field looks ideal for pitchers, with the wind forecasted to blow in. Despite a four-run implied total for the Cubs, Kelly is projected for 5.59 strikeouts in an ideal matchup against a team with a 0.292 strikeout-per-at-bat average, the highest on the slate.
It may not be a comfortable place to roster Kelly, but an 85th-percentile outcome is certainly plausible Sunday.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the Los Angels Dodgers:
- Will Smith (4) ($5,200)
- Freddie Freeman (2) ($5,400)
- Max Muncy (5) ($5,300)
- Trea Turner (3) ($6,000)
- Mookie Betts (1) ($5,700)
One of the top offenses in the major leagues, the Los Angeles Dodgers boast a top-of-the-order lineup with tons of power. With a 5.1 implied total, one of the highest on the slate, the Dodgers look to have an ideal matchup against Zach Eflin, who has appeared to struggle to start the season, going 1-3 after six starts with a 3.90 ERA, 18% K rate and a 1.20 WHIP. Further, the weather in Philadelphia looks ideal for hitters, with temperatures forecast in the high 80s.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings. However, the Dodgers top-of-the-order comes at a premium, costing $27,6000 for a five-man stack
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
In what looks like a spend-down from the expensive Los Angeles Dodgers, the Boston Red Sox 1-2-3-4-6 stack projects for one of the highest ceilings, according to THE BAT. Priced at $24,400 on DraftKings, Boston gets an ideal matchup against Mariners pitcher Logan Gilbert in a game with the highest Weather Rating, with temperatures forecast in the high 80s and the wind blowing out at Fenway Park. Boston is implied for 5.1 runs, which is among the highest on the slate.
For additional salary relief, switching Trevor Story for Alex Verdugo keeps the correlation with Verdugo, who is projected to bat fifth, and still comes with tons of power, with the lefty having a .116 ISO differential against right-handed pitchers.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Yandy Diaz 1B/3B ($4,900 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles (Spenser Watkins)
Removing the Dodgers and Red Sox in search of possible one-off plays, Tampa Bay Rays infielder Yandy Diaz has the highest Player Rating in our model. Diaz should be a popular option Sunday against Spenser Watkins of the Baltimore Orioles, who has an 0-1 record with a 5.10 ERA, 10% K rate and a 1.60 WHIP in seven starts. Diaz, who is projected to bat leadoff, will likely be an integral part of a Rays offense with a healthy 5.1-implied-run total and comes as an affordable option, especially on FanDuel.
Ronald Acuna OF ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (Sandy Alcantara)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. should be in the conversation Sunday, as he is projected for one of the highest ceilings. Despite a tough matchup against Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara in the pitcher-friendly venue of loanDepot Park, Acuna comes with plenty of power and speed to kickstart the Braves offense, despite a 3.6-implied-run total. Since returning from ACL surgery that ended his 2021 season, Acuna is batting .283/.424/.453 and is almost a matchup-proof option.
Odubel Herrera OF ($2,400 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Tony Gonsolin)
When looking for value, Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Odubel Herrera jumps to the top with the highest projected Plus/Minus. Herrera is priced at $2,400 and looks to be in an ideal matchup against Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tony Gonsolin. Despite being projected toward the bottom of the Phillies lineup, Philadelphia is implied for 4.6 runs Sunday and will need consistent outings from their 1-9 batters–especially in ideal weather conditions. At a near-minimum price tag, Herrera can open up salary relief to unlock high-priced bats with top-tier arms.
