The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features nine games starting at 1:05 p.m. ET to close out another weekend of spring baseball action. After a stretch of weather concerns, it looks like we’ll have a day of clean baseball.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Brandon Woodruff ($9,000) Milwaukee Brewers (-161) at Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff stands out among the top arms on the slate, rated as one of the top pitchers in the model. Continuing his dominance from last season, Woodruff has made six starts, posting a 3-2 record with an 11.62 K/9, 29% K rate, and 1.36 WHIP. Don’t let the 5.97 ERA scare you off; Woodruff should firmly be in the conversation as an SP1 option on the slate. Sunday’s matchup against the Miami Marlins looks ideal for Woodruff, as he should benefit from the pitcher-friendly confines of loanDepot Park, which also looks to have one of the highest Park Factor Ratings on the slate.
In addition to the ideal park and high upside, the Marlins have a 0.268 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is among the highest on the slate and likely a key attribution to their 3.2-implied-run total.
Justin Verlander ($10,300) Houston Astros (-200) at Washington Nationals
As the highest-priced pitcher on the slate, Houston Astros ace Justin Verlander certainly has the potential to reach a ceiling outcome and could almost be considered “matchup proof.” Verlander is projected for 6.28 strikeouts and should continue as a dominant ace after returning from Tommy John surgery. In six starts this season, Verlander has a 4-1 record with a 1.55 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, and 25% K rate. Sunday’s matchup against the Nationals, however, should prove to be a test for the future Hall of Famer, with the projected lineup posting a 0.224 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a .338 wOBA.
Historically per the Trends Tool, as a -200 road favorite or greater, Verlander averages 26.65 actual DraftKings points and a +5.88 Plus/Minus. Verlander is certainly worth spending up, even at this price tag.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Tarik Skubal ($6,000) Detroit Tigers (-135) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal projects as a top value on Sunday’s slate. Priced at $6,000 on DraftKings, Skubal looks to have an ideal matchup, facing a projected Baltimore Orioles lineup with a 0.297 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is the highest on the slate. In six starts this season, Skubal has posted decent numbers, going 2-2 with a 2.94 ERA, 25% K rate, and 1.13 WHIP. Projected for 6.23 strikeouts, Skubal should easily reach fantasy relevance and has win-bonus upside facing an Orioles lineup with a 3.6-implied-run total.
With a high projected ceiling and easy matchup, Skubal should be a popular option as an SP2.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Joe Ryan ($8,400) Minnesota Twins (-143) vs. Cleveland Guardians
With brand-name arms like Verlander and Woodruff on the slate, one option that might be overlooked is Minnesota Twins breakout pitcher Joe Ryan. In his sophomore campaign, Ryan has a 3-2 record after six starts with a 2.56 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 24% K rate. Projected for 5.28 strikeouts, Ryan faces a disciplined Cleveland Guardians lineup with a slate-low 0.206 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a .343 wOBA. However, the Guardians have a 3.6-implied run total — one of the lowest on the slate — which should add to Ryan’s win-bonus upside.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the Houston Astros:
- Yuli Gurriel (5) ($3,900)
- Jose Altuve (1) ($5,000)
- Alex Bregman (3) ($4,900)
- Michael Brantley (2) ($3,800)
- Yordan Alvarez (4) ($5,200)
One of the top offenses in the major leagues, the Houston Astros boast a top-of-the-order lineup with tons of power. Disciplined at the plate, the Astros are averaging 0.233 strikeout-per-at-bats, which is one of the lowest on the slate and should give Nationals pitcher Patrick Corbin plenty of issues. In seven starts this season, Corbin has an 0-5 record with a 6.06 ERA, 19.9% K rate, and 1.74 WHIP, and I expect the struggles to continue Sunday.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings. And at $22,800 on DraftKings, this five-man stack is a more affordable choice, especially with hidden discounted arms.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the New York Yankees:
With a price tag of $23,000, the New York Yankees 2-3-4-5-6 order of the lineup is the quintessential definition of power, averaging a 0.236 strikeout-per-at-bat average. Despite the tough matchup against Chicago White Sox arm Michael Kopech, who is projected for 5.95 strikeouts, the Yankees have the potential to generate runs individually or through their ability to get on base, posting a .323 wOBA. Consider the Bronx Bombers for their home-run upside.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Byron Buxton OF ($5,900 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians (Triston McKenzie)
Removing the Astros and Yankees in search of possible one-off plays, Minnesota Twins superstar outfielder Byron Buxton has the highest Player Rating in our model. Buxton, who is batting leadoff, kickstarts a Twins lineup with a 4.2-implied-run total, which is among the highest on the slate. Buxton’s power should make today difficult for Guardians pitcher Triston McKenzie, who — despite putting up decent numbers so far this season — has a 39.7% hard-hit rate, which may signal a potential blow-up spot against high ISO bats — like Buxton.
Jose Ramirez 3B ($5,200 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Aaron Ashby)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez should be in the conversation Sunday, as he is projected for one of the highest ceilings. Ramirez has consistent power, and despite a tough matchup against Minnesota Twins breakout pitcher Joe Ryan, Ramirez has a .397 wOBA and a .271 ISO and not only can upend the slate as a contrarian option, but kickstart the Guardians’ disciplined offense, projected to bat third.
Nick Gordon OF ($2,200 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians (Triston McKenzie)
When looking for value, Minnesota Twins outfielder Nick Gordon jumps to the top with the highest projected Plus/Minus. Gordon is priced at $2,200 and looks to be in an ideal matchup against Cleveland Guardians pitcher Triston McKenzie. Despite being projected toward the bottom of the Twins lineup, the Twins are implied for 4.2 runs Sunday and will need consistent outings from their 1-9 batters. At a near-minimum price tag, Gordon can open up salary relief to unlock high-priced bats with top-tier arms.
