The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Close out the weekend with an interesting nine-game slate starting at 1:35 p.m ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Max Scherzer ($10,200) New York Mets (-225) at Washington Nationals
Max Scherzer has not performed to his top-tier salary so far this season. The 38-year-old is 2-2 with a 5.56 ERA in his first five starts while battling injury concerns with his side and back.
He will take the mound tonight in Game 2 of the Mets’ doubleheader against his old Nationals squad. His advanced numbers are also down in 2023, with a 20.8 K% and .351 xwOBA. He has struggled with his command, leading to a career-high 10.4% walk rate.
All that said, it’s Max Scherzer. He has not finished the season with a losing record since 2009. Last season, he still landed in the top 10% of pitchers with a .254 wOBA. The age cliff may be looming, but he will have added motivation against his former team Sunday afternoon to turn things around on the campaign.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Lucas Giolito ($8,000) Chicago White Sox (+110) vs. Houston Astros
The model like Lucas Giolito as a top bargain option against the defending champs, despite the Astros being slight Vegas favorites.
At 2-2 with a 3.59 ERA on the season, Giolito has returned three straight positive Plus/Minus games with two 24-plus DraftKings-points performances.
The ceiling may be capped with Giolito, but there is value in consistent meat-and-potatoes performances at a decent salary. He falls right near the league average this season (and most seasons) in xwOBA, K%, and hard hit %.
The Astros are surprisingly in the bottom half of most offensive categories in the first 39 games of the year. They have 34 home runs compared to the league-leading 80 for the Tampa Bay Rays.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Mitch Keller ($9,600) Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) at Baltimore Orioles
What a turnaround year for Mitch Keller and the Pirates. After a 12-29 total record in his first four MLB seasons, Keller is 4-1 in 2023 with a 2.72 ERA. He is a high-leverage play today with expected lower ownership and a high ceiling.
He showed that ceiling potential in his last start in a four-hit shutout at home against the Rockies on May 8. His massive 42.25 DraftKings-point total marked his sixth positive Plus/Minus performance in his last seven starts.
In a matchup of surprise MLB teams, Keller is a strong pick for tournament lineups on today’s slate with his impressive .282 xwOBA and 27.3 hard hit %.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the New York Mets:
After Saturday’s game was suspended, the Mets look for a second straight win in Washington on Sunday, and Vegas expects them to do just that with one of the highest implied run totals on the slate.
The Nationals trot out rookie Jake Irvin on the mound. He was solid in his first two starts with a 1-0 record and 0.84 ERA. His lower 19.0% strikeout rate and higher 16.7% walk rate should mean a lot of hard-hit balls for this potent Mets lineup. Pete Alonso leads the majors with 13 home runs and highlights this value-priced stack that allows room for some high-level pitching options.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Christian Yelich OF ($4,300 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals (Jordan Lyles)
The blended model has loved Christian Yelich recently, leading to fantasy goodness over the last week. He is swatting .381/.458/.667 over the last seven games and mashed two home runs yesterday to post a 30-point DraftKings total.
Royals’ starter Jordan Lyles is having anything but a banner season in 2023. He is 0-6 with a 6.20 ERA and has allowed 13 home runs, the most of any Major League pitcher. All systems go for Yelich to continue his strong recent fantasy production Sunday.
Mauricio Dubon 2B ($3,200 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox (Lucas Giolito)
Using the blended model, Houston Astros second baseman Mauricio Dubon has the second-highest rating Sunday. He has a high leverage rating with low ownership expected against Lucas Giolito and the White Sox. Dubon is hitting .292/.315/.365 this season and projects as the leadoff hitter for an Astros team looking to get their bats going the right direction.
Giolito is an average matchup, with a 2-2 record and 3.59 ERA in eight starts. For the value, Dubon has a strong projected Plus/Minus today.
George Springer OF ($4,500 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves (Collin McHugh)
The Blue Jays/Braves matchup looks to be a barnburner, with one of the highest projected totals outside of Colorado. Toronto outfielder George Springer has struggled this season, batting .219/.283/.308 with four home runs and six stolen bags. He has four double-digit FanDuel point totals over his last seven games.
The model is all-on on the matchup against Braves long-time reliever Collin McHugh, making his first start in the last two seasons. McHugh is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in nine relief appearances this season. Expect the Blue Jays to see multiple platoon pitchers today, which could bode well for Springer’s offensive potential.
