The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features nine games starting at 1:35 p.m. ET to close out the first official weekend of summer baseball action. Keep an eye on the weather in Cleveland, which has rain forecast in the area.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Shane McClanahan ($10,300) Tampa Bay Rays (-230) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Shane McClanahan jumps to the top of the Player Model on Sunday and looks to be in a prime position against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh is implied for a slate-low 2.7 runs with a 0.271 strikeout-per-at bat average. McClanahan, who is projected for 7.45 strikeouts, can certainly be a fantasy-relevant option Sunday despite being the highest-priced pitcher on the slate, coming in at $10,300 on DraftKings.
The second-year starter should be a popular option at SP1, posting a 7-3 record in 14 starts with a 1.81 ERA, 35% K rate, and 0.85 WHIP this season. McClanahan is certainly worth the spend-up Sunday against a struggling Pirates squad.
Dylan Cease ($9,600) Chicago White Sox (-205) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Despite the recent struggles of the Chicago White Sox, pitcher Dylan Cease rates as a top arm in the model Sunday and looks to be a spend-down option from McClanahan. In 14 starts this season, Cease has a 5-3 record with a 2.68 ERA, 34% K rate, and 1.28 WHIP and has certainly been one of the more dominant arms in the American League. Sunday’s matchup looks ideal for Cease and the White Sox, with Baltimore posting a 0.250 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
Sunday’s slate is full of top-tier arms and Cease, who is projected for 6.99 strikeouts, should benefit from win-bonus upside as a heavy favorite.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Jack Flaherty ($6,600) St. Louis Cardinals (-195) vs. Chicago Cubs
Recently returning from injury, St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Jack Flaherty projects as a top value on Sunday’s slate. Making two starts this season, Flaherty has a 7.50 ERA with a 12% K rate and 2.33 WHIP. While the numbers and possibly a shorter-than-usual outing from Flaherty might dissuade you from rostering the Cardinals’ arm, take another look. Flaherty gets a prime matchup against the Cubs, who have a 0.275 strikeout-per-at-bat average, and Flaherty — who is projected for 6.15 strikeouts — can certainly reach value priced at a steep discount of $6,600 on DraftKings.
Sunday’s outing might be the get-right spot needed for the Cardinals ace.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jose Berrios ($8,500) Toronto Blue Jays (-150) at Milwaukee Brewers
Certainly a risky play against the vaunted Milwaukee Brewers offense, Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Jose Berrios projects for one of the highest ceilings on the slate and should come in at low ownership. In an up-and-down season, Berrios has made 14 starts, posting a 5-3 record with a 5.11 ERA, 19.5% K rate, and 1.31 WHIP. In what might be considered a spend-down option, Berrios is projected for 5.74 strikeouts and can certainly be a viable option, despite a tough matchup against the a projected Brewers lineup with a 0.245 strikeout-per-at-bat average, a .311 wOBA and a 4.4-run implied total.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
- Alejandro Kirk (4) ($4,300)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3) ($6,000)
- Santiago Espinal (1) ($4,800)
- Bo Bichette (2) ($5,400)
- Teoscar Hernandez (5) ($5,500)
Implied for 5.3 runs, the Toronto Blue Jays offense look to be a top stack option Sunday, facing the Milwaukee Brewers in the hitter-friendly venue of American Family Field. The Blue Jays are scheduled to face Chi Chi Gonzalez, who was recently acquired from Colorado, pitching three games with a 7.38 ERA, 12% K rate, and 1.55 WHIP. The Blue Jays lineup is loaded with power and discipline, with a 0.218 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a .334 wOBA. Gonzalez could certainly have a tough outing facing a top-tier offense.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings. The Blue Jays’ top-of-the-order comes at a very high price tag, costing $26,000 for a five-man stack in one of the best venues for batters Sunday.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the New York Yankees:
In what looks like a spend-down choice from the Blue Jays, the Yankees’ wraparound 2-3-4-5-9 stack projects for one of the highest ceilings, according to THE BAT. Priced at $24,900 on DraftKings, the surging Yankees offense gets a matchup against Houston Astros pitcher Jose Urquidy with a 5.1 implied total.
A very expensive stack, but expect the runs to come in bulk from this powerful top of the order.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Christian Yelich OF ($4,700 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Jose Berrios)
Removing the Blue Jays and Yankees in search of possible one-off plays, Milwaukee Brewers superstar outfielder Christian Yelich has the highest rating in our model. Yelich should be a popular option Sunday against Jose Berrios of the Blue Jays, who has struggled at times this season. Projected to bat leadoff, Yelich should kickstart the Brewers’ offense, which is implied for 4.4 runs. Look for the Brewers outfielder to be a great one-off option Sunday despite the high price tag on DraftKings.
Rafael Devers 3B ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians (Aaron Civale)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers should be in the conversation Sunday, as he is projected for one of the highest ceilings. Facing pitcher Aaron Civale, who has a 2-3 record with a 7.25 ERA in 14 starts, looks to be an ideal spot for Devers and the Red Sox, who are implied for 4.9 runs despite weather concerns. Devers is slashing .330/.386/.606 with 17 home runs, and despite the high price tag, Devers should be an easy choice for a ceiling outcome.
Gavin Sheets OF ($2,100 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles (Jordan Lyles)
When looking for value, Gavin Sheets jumps to the top with the highest projected Plus/Minus. Sheets is priced at the near-minimum $2,100 and looks to be in an ideal matchup against Baltimore Orioles pitcher Jordan Lyles. Chicago has an implied total of 5.2 runs, and at a minimum price tag, Sheets can open up salary relief to unlock high-priced bats with top-tier arms or high-priced stacks.
