The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features 10 games starting at 1:35 p.m. ET to close out another weekend of spring baseball action. Keep an eye on the weather in Philadelphia, which has the potential for rain during game time.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Justin Verlander ($10,500) Houston Astros (-232) vs. Miami Marlins
Houston Astros ace Justin Verlander highlights Sunday’s slate and is projected among the top arms in the Player Model. The future Hall of Famer continues his dominating form this season, posting a 7-2 record in 11 starts with a 2.13 ERA, 27% K rate, and 0.84 WHIP. Verlander looks to be in a prime position, with the Marlins posting a 3.1-implied-run total and a 0.254 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the highest on the slate. Despite being the most-expensive pitcher on the slate, Verlander is projected for 6.8 strikeouts, the second-most on the slate, and he should be even more fantasy-relevant with win-bonus upside.
Per the Trends tool, when Verlander is a home favorite of -232 or greater, he averages 25.97 actual DraftKings points and a +5.22 Plus/Minus. While there are certainly no absolutes in baseball, Verlander might be the closest option on the slate at SP1.
Michael Kopech ($8,100) Chicago White Sox (-165) vs. Texas Rangers
If you are looking to spend down from Verlander, look no further than Chicago White Sox pitcher Michael Kopech, who looks to be in a prime position against the Texas Rangers. At more than a $2,000 discount, the White Sox pitcher projects for the most strikeouts on the slate at 7.12, facing a Rangers lineup with a 0.269 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is the second-highest on the slate. Kopech is off to an impressive start to the season with a 2-2 record in 10 starts and a 1.94 ERA, 25.5% K rate, and 0.94 WHIP. In GPPs, look for Kopech to likely come under-rostered compared to Verlander, and he should also see upside with a win bonus.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Brad Keller ($6,100) Kansas City Royals (-129) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Kansas City Royals pitcher Brad Keller looks to be one of the top values on DraftKings on Sunday, facing a Baltimore Orioles lineup with a high strikeout-per-at-bat average. Certainly a risky choice at SP2, Keller might need luck, with the Orioles implied for 4.9 runs in the hitter-friendly venue of Kauffman Stadium — which rates among the worst for pitchers — with temperatures forecasted in the 90s at game time.
With a digestible salary of $6,100 on DraftKings, it might not take much for Keller to become fantasy-relevant, and he’s projected for 4.46 strikeouts. Sunday’s matchup might also be a get-right spot for Keller, who has a 1-7 record in 11 starts with a 4.19 ERA, 13.4% K rate, and a 1.26 WHIP. Proceed with caution.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jeffrey Springs ($7,700) Tampa Bay Rays (-129) at Minnesota Twins
Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Jeffrey Springs looks to be an overlooked option on Sunday’s slate–projecting for one of the highest ceilings on the slate. Making seven starts this season, Springs has a 2-2 record with a 1.62 ERA, 26.8% K rate, and a 0.92 WHIP. Minnesota’s lineup is loaded with power and is implied for 4.1 runs Sunday, but the Twins have a tendency to strike out at an anove-average clip, averaging a 0.256 strikeout-per-at-bat average. A value option at $7,700 on DraftKings, Springs can certainly become fantasy-relevant, projecting for 6.28 strikeouts at single-digit ownership.
Risk certainly doesn’t come without reward, and Springs might be the key to unlocking the slate Sunday.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
- J.T Realmuto (5) ($5,000)
- Rhys Hoskins (2) ($3,800)
- Nick Castellanos (4) ($5,300)
- Bryce Harper (3) ($6,000)
- Kyle Schwarber (1) ($4,300)
One of the top offenses in the major leagues, the Philadelphia Phillies boast a top-of-the-order lineup with tons of power. With a 5.8 implied total, the highest on the slate, the Phillies look to have an ideal matchup against opener Kyle Nelson, in a bullpen game for the Diamondbacks. Making 19 appearances this season, Nelson is 1-0 through 17.2 innings with a 2.04 ERA, 27.5% K rate, and 1.02 WHIP. However, the weather at Citizens Bank Park looks to be ideal for batters Sunday — despite the potential for rain — with the wind blowing out, signaling the potential for plenty of runs for a Phillies lineup with the highest wOBA on the slate at .344.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings. However, the Phillies top-of-the-order comes at a reasonable price, costing $23,000 for a five-man stack.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
In what looks like a spend-up from the Philadelphia Phillies, the Toronto Blue Jays 1-2-3-4-5 stack projects for one of the highest ceilings, according to THE BAT. Priced at $27,300 on DraftKings, Toronto gets a matchup against Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal with a 4.7 implied total for the Blue Jays’ power bats. Sunday’s matchup looks to favor batters in terms of weather, with summer-like temperatures in Detroit likely reaching the mid-80s.
A very expensive stack, but expect the runs to come in bulk from this powerful top of the order.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Christian Yelich OF ($4,200 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals (Paolo Espino)
Removing the Phillies and Blue Jays in search of possible one-off plays, Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich has the highest rating in our model. Yelich should be a popular option Sunday against Paolo Espino of the Washington Nationals, who makes his first start of the season. Espino has a 2.03 ERA in 20 appearances, but he looks to have a hard time missing bats, with a 19% K rate and a 1.01 WHIP. Projected to bat leadoff, Yelich should kickstart the Brewers’ offense, which is implied for five runs. Look for the Brewers superstar to be a great one-off option Sunday.
Ronald Acuna OF ($6,000 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Jose Quintana)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. should be in the conversation Sunday, as he is projected for one of the highest ceilings. Virtually a matchup-proof option, Acuna, like Yelich should be a popular choice Sunday, facing veteran pitcher Jose Quintana, who has a 1-3 record with a 3.19 ERA in 11 starts with a 20% K rate and 1.32 WHIP. Continuing his dominance at the plate, Acuna is slashing .316/.411/.538 with six home runs. Despite the high price tag, Acuna should be an easy choice for a ceiling outcome.
Brett Phillips OF ($2,600 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins (Bryson Sands)
When looking for value, Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Brett Phillips jumps to the top with the highest projected Plus/Minus. Phillips is priced at $2,600 and looks to be in an ideal matchup against Minnesota Twins pitcher Bryson Sands. Despite being projected toward the bottom of the Rays lineup, Tampa Bay is implied for 4.5 runs Sunday and will need consistent outings from their 1-9 batters, especially in ideal weather conditions. At a near-minimum price tag, Phillips can open up salary relief to unlock high-priced bats with top-tier arms or high-priced stacks.
