The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features 10 games starting at 1:35 p.m. ET to close out another month of exciting baseball action. Keep an eye on the weather in Pittsburgh, St. Louis and Cincinnati, which all have rain concerns.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Max Fried ($9,500) Atlanta Braves (-235) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves pitcher Max Fried jumps to the top of the Player Model on Sunday in what looks to be an ideal matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona, which is implied for 3.2 runs, has a 0.260 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the highest on the slate. Fried, one of the more dominant young arms in the league, looks to be an affordable option at $9,500 on DraftKings and is projected for 6.67 strikeouts, and he should throw more than 100 pitches. Making 20 starts this season, Fried has a 10-3 record with a 2.73 ERA, 23.3% K rate, and 1.09 WHIP, and he should make easy work at home against a less-than-stellar Diamondback lineup.
Dylan Cease ($10,200) Chicago White Sox (-286) vs. Oakland Athletics
Chicago White Sox arm Dylan Cease looks to continue his breakout season Sunday as a heavy favorite against the Oakland Athletics. One of the more expensive arms on the slate, Cease should be a popular option at SP1, facing an Athletics lineup with a 0.229 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a .276 wOBA, both of which put the team toward the bottom. Despite the high price tag, Cease is projected for 6.96 strikeouts Sunday, which is the highest among starting pitchers. Combined with win-bonus upside, he should be top of mind for players looking to lock in a consistent SP1. In 20 starts this season, Cease has a 10-4 record with a 2.03 ERA, 33.4% K rate, and 1.19 WHIP — an elite talent for a slate filled with young stars.
MLB DFS Value Picks
JT Brubaker ($7,400) Pittsburgh Pirates (+155) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Priced at a discounted $7,400, Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher JT Brubaker projects as a top value on Sunday’s slate. In 19 starts this season, Brubaker has a 2-8 record with a 3.96 ERA, 22.6% K rate, and 1.43 WHIP — certainly not stellar numbers. Despite a difficult matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies, who are implied for 4.1 runs, Brubaker can certainly run into a lucky streak against a projected lineup with a 0.248 strikeout-per-at-bat average, and he’s projected for 6.05 strikeouts. Even with weather concerns, Brubaker should be a viable option at SP2 facing the boom-or-bust Phillies lineup.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Taijuan Walker ($8,800) New York Mets (-143) at Miami Marlins
New York Mets pitcher Taijuan Walker might be an overlooked option Sunday, and he projects for one of the highest ceilings on the slate. Making 17 starts this season, the young arm has an 8-2 record with a 2.67 ERA, 19.5% K rate, and 1.11 WHIP. Walker looks to be a spend-up-pivot from Brubaker in an ideal matchup against a Marlins projected lineup with a 0.249 strikeout-per-at-bat average and 3.3 implied-run total, and he should benefit from the pitcher-friendly venue of loanDepot Park. Given the price tag of $8,800 on DraftKings and lower projected ownership, Walker should be in consideration as an SP2 and a sneaky pivot from more popular options.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the New York Yankees:
- Anthony Rizzo (3) ($4,500)
- Gleyber Torres (4) ($4,600)
- DJ LeMahieu (1) ($4,900)
- Aaron Judge (2) ($6,200)
- Andrew Benintendi (6) ($4,400)
Implied for 5.5 runs, the highest on the slate, the New York Yankees offense looks to be a top stack option Sunday. The Yankees are scheduled to face Kansas City Royals pitcher Zack Greinke, who has a 3-6 record in 16 starts with a 4.35 ERA, 13.4% K rate, and 1.29 WHIP. The Yankees are a top offense in the majors and a lineup loaded with power and discipline, as their .331 wOBA is among the highest on the slate. The veteran Greinke could undoubtedly have a tough outing facing a top-tier offense.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings, but this stack can be the exception. The Yankees’ top-of-the-order comes at an affordable $24,600 price tag, especially when adding new addition Andrew Benintendi, who is projected to bat sixth.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
In what looks like a spend-down choice from the Yankees, the Brewers’ 1-2-3-4-5 stack projects for one of the highest ceilings, according to THE BAT. Priced at an affordable $22,200 on DraftKings, the Brewers offense gets a matchup against Boston Red Sox pitcher Josh Winckowski. The rookie has made eight starts this season, posting an 3-5 record with a 5.18 ERA, 15.3% K rate, and 1.50 WHIP.
Expect the runs to come in bulk from this powerful top of the order, which has a .321 wOBA and a 5.2 implied-run total.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($4,900 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Merrill Kelly)
Removing the Yankees and Brewers in search of possible one-off plays, Atlanta Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. has the highest rating in our model on DraftKings. Acuna should be a popular option Sunday against pitcher Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks. Projected to bat leadoff, Acuna should kickstart the Braves’ offense, which is implied for 4.9 runs. Look for the Braves outfielder to be a great one-off option Sunday despite the high price tag on DraftKings.
Yordan Alvarez OF ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners (George Kirby)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Houston Astros outfielder Yordan Alvarez should be in the conversation Sunday, as he is projected for one of the highest ceilings. Facing pitcher George Kirby, who has a 2-3 record with a 3.50 ERA in 13 starts, looks to be an ideal spot for Alvarez and the Astros. Alvarez is slashing .312/.420/.678 with 30 home runs, and he’s an easy choice for a ceiling outcome in a great matchup.
Victor Robles OF ($2,000 DraftKings, $2,100 FanDuel) Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Andre Pallante)
When looking for value, Victor Robles jumps to the top with the highest projected Plus/Minus. Robles, at the minimum price tag on DraftKings, is slashing .234/.293/.323 with four home runs. Washington has an implied total of 4.5 runs, and Robles — who is projected to bat leadoff — should have an ideal outing in a matchup with a high implied total. Keep an eye on the projected starting lineup for the Nationals, with Robles exiting Saturday’s matchup with a hamstring injury.
