The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features nine games starting at 1:35 p.m. ET to lock in a holiday weekend of baseball action. The forecast looks clean for a fun afternoon of MLB action.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Framber Valdez ($9,100) Houston Astros (-228) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez jumps to the top of the Player Model on Sunday and looks to be in a prime position against the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels are implied for a slate-low 3.3 runs with a 0.330 strikeout-per-at bat average, which is the highest on the slate. Valdez, who is projected for 6.91 strikeouts, can undoubtedly be a fantasy-relevant option Sunday and is one of the more affordable options, priced at $9,100 on DraftKings.
Valdez should be a popular option at SP1, posting an 8-3 record in 15 starts with a 2.65 ERA, 20% K rate, and 1.12 WHIP this season.
Brandon Woodruff ($9,500) Milwaukee Brewers (-175) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Milwaukee Brewers starting rotation is one of the more feared pitching staffs in baseball, and Brandon Woodruff serves as the cornerstone. Woodruff gets an ideal matchup against the Pirates, who are implied for a 3.4-run total. Projected for 6.59 strikeouts, Woodruff should be seen as a pivot to Valdez with a $400 price difference, and should make easy work against a Pirates lineup with a 0.287 strikeout-per-at-bat average and an ideal Park Factor rating at PNC Park.
Don’t let the 10 starts and 4.44 ERA dissuade you. Woodruff has a 31% K rate and a 1.15 WHIP; he is definitely worth the spend-up.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Connor Seabold ($5,000) Boston Red Sox (-128) at Chicago Cubs
Second-year starter Connor Seabold is expected to start Sunday for the Boston Red Sox against the Chicago Cubs. Making one spot start this year against the Toronto Blue Jays, Seabold pitched 4.2 innings, allowing seven runs on nine hits and striking out seven batters. Coming in as a top value play on the slate, Seabold looks to turn things around against the Chicago Cubs, who are implied for 4.2 runs.
With an affordable $5,000 price tag on DraftKings and a 4.35-strikeout projection, Seabold can open up plenty of salary relief to roster top-tier bats in ideal situations.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Charlie Morton ($9,600) Atlanta Braves (-157) at Cincinnati Reds
Veteran pitcher Charlie Morton projects for one of the highest ceilings on the slate Sunday and should come in with lower-than-expected ownership against the Cincinnati Reds. Posting a 4-3 record in 15 starts, Morton has a 4.73 ERA, 26.1% K rate, and 1.33 WHIP, facing a projected lineup with a 0.253 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a .322 wOBA. Playing in Great American Ballpark won’t help Morton either, as it’s one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in the majors. While looking for pivots from the more popular Woodruff and Valdez, don’t sleep on Morton as a viable GPP play despite the less-than-ideal conditions.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the Houston Astros:
- Jose Altuve (1) ($5,400)
- Alex Bregman (4) ($4,900)
- Jeremy Pena (2) ($4,300)
- Kyle Tucker (5) ($5,200)
- Yordan Alvarez (3) ($6,400)
Implied for five runs, the Houston Astros offense look to be a top stack option Sunday. The Astros are scheduled to face Jose Suarez, who has bounced from Triple-A to the majors, posting a 1-2 record in eight starts with a 4.36 ERA, 22% K rate, and 1.64 WHIP. A top offense in the majors, the Astros lineup is loaded with power and discipline, with a 0.237 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a .339 wOBA. Suarez could certainly have a tough outing facing a top-tier offense.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings. The Astros’ top-of-the-order comes at a very high price tag, costing $26,200 for a five-man stack in one of the best venues for batters Sunday.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the New York Yankees:
In what looks like a spend-down choice from the Astros, the Yankees’ 1-2-3-4-5 stack projects for one of the highest ceilings, according to THE BAT. Priced at $23,400 on DraftKings, the surging Yankees offense gets a matchup against Cleveland Guardians pitcher Triston McKenzie with a 4.6 implied total. McKenzie has had his share of less-than-stellar outings this season, posting a 4-6 record with a 4.03 ERA, 22.7% K rate, and 1.05 WHIP.
Expect the runs to come in bulk from this powerful top of the order, which also has a 0.259 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a .329 wOBA.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Christian Yelich OF ($4,700 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates (Jose Quintana)
Removing the Astros and Yankees in search of possible one-off plays, Milwaukee Brewers superstar outfielder Christian Yelich has the highest rating in our model. Yelich should be a popular option Sunday against veteran pitcher Jose Quintana of the Pirates, who has struggled at times this season. Projected to bat leadoff, Yelich should kickstart the Brewers’ offense, which is implied for 4.7 runs. Look for the Brewers superstar to be a great one-off option Sunday despite the high price tag on DraftKings.
Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($6,300 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds (Luis Castillo)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Atlanta Braves’ superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. should be in the conversation Sunday, as he is projected for one of the highest ceilings. Facing right-hander Luis Castillo, who has a 3-4 record with a 3.32 ERA in 10 starts, looks to be an ideal spot for Acuna and the Braves, who are implied for 5.1 runs in the hitter-friendly venue of Great American Ballpark. Acuna is slashing .282/.379/.454 with seven home runs, and he’s an easy choice for a ceiling outcome in a great matchup.
Jesus Aguilar 1B ($2,200 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (Erick Fedde)
When looking for value, Jesus Aguilar jumps to the top with the highest projected Plus/Minus. Aguilar is priced at the near-minimum $2,200 and looks to be in an ideal matchup against Washington Nationals pitcher Erick Fedde. Miami has an implied total of 4.6 runs, and at a minimum price tag, Aguilar — who is projected to bat cleanup — can open up salary relief to unlock high-priced bats with top-tier arms or high-priced stacks.
