The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features nine games starting at 1:35 p.m. ET to close the first weekend of MLB’s second half. Despite the possibility for isolated showers across the country, all games should play.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Ian Anderson ($6,500) Atlanta Braves (-210) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves pitcher Ian Anderson jumps to the top of the Player Model on Sunday in what looks to be an ideal matchup against the Los Angeles Angeles. Despite a sluggish first half of the season, Anderson has an 8-5 record in 18 starts, with a 4.79 ERA, 19% K rate, and 1.51 WHIP. The Angels are implied for 3.8 runs, which is one of the lowest on the slate, and look to continue to struggle at the plate. They have a 0.307 strikeout-per-at-bat average — the highest of Sunday’s teams — and a .304 wOBA, which is among the lowest.
Priced at $6,500, Anderson is a hyper-affordable option on DraftKings with plenty of strikeout and win-bonus upside, and he should be a popular choice at SP1.
Sandy Alcantara ($10,000) Miami Marlins (-181) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara looks to continue his National League Cy Young-caliber campaign Sunday with a great matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Implied for 3.3 runs, the lowest on the slate, the Pirates also have struggled at the plate, posting a 0.262 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a .301 wOBA. One of the more effective arms in the majors, Alcantara — the most expensive pitcher on the slate — has a 9-4 record in 19 starts, with a 1.76 ERA, 23% K rate, and 0.90 WHIP.
Per the Trends tool, when favored on the road, Alcantara averages 21.42 actual DraftKings points and a +5.00 Plus/Minus. Look for Alcantara to be the lock-and-load SP1.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Kris Bubic ($5,700) Kansas City Royals (+123) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Priced at a discounted $5,700, Kansas City Royals pitcher Kris Bubic projects as a top value on Sunday’s slate. In 14 starts this season, Bubic has a 1-6 record with a 5.87 ERA, 17% K rate, and 1.73 WHIP — certainly not great numbers. In a difficult matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, who are implied for five runs, Bubic can certainly run into a lucky streak against a projected lineup with a 0.294 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the highest on the slate. With the strikeout upside, Bubic can become a fantasy-relevant option, which opens up lineups to higher-priced stacks.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Nestor Cortes ($8,700) New York Yankees (-183) at Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees pitcher Nestor Cortes might be an overlooked option Sunday, and he projects for one of the highest ceilings on the slate. Making 17 starts this season, the young arm has a 7-3 record with a 2.63 ERA, 26% K rate, and 1.00 WHIP. Cortes looks to be a pivot from Alcantara in a more ideal matchup against an Orioles projected lineup with a 0.265 strikeout-per-at-bat average and 3.9 implied-run total, and he should also get plenty of run support from the powerful Yankees bats. Be sure to take an extra look at Cortes as an extremely viable SP1 option.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the New York Yankees:
- Anthony Rizzo (3) ($4,900)
- Gleyber Torres (5) ($5,100)
- DJ LeMahieu (1) ($5,200)
- Giancarlo Stanton (4) ($5,500)
- Aaron Judge (2) ($4,500)
Implied for a 5.3 runs, the New York Yankees offense looks to be a top stack option Sunday. The Yankees are scheduled to face Baltimore Orioles pitcher Dean Kremer, who has a 3-1 record in eight starts with a 2.59 ERA, 18% K rate, and 1.32 WHIP. The Yankees are a top offense in the majors and a lineup loaded with power and discipline, as their .347 wOBA is among the highest on the slate. Kremer could undoubtedly have a tough outing facing a top-tier offense.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings. The Yankees’ top-of-the-order comes at an expensive price tag, costing $26,800 for a five-man stack in an ideal position Sunday.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
In what looks like a spend-down choice from the Yankees, the Blue Jays’ 1-2-3-4-5 stack projects for one of the highest ceilings, according to THE BAT. Priced at an affordable $24,200 on DraftKings, the Blue Jays offense gets a matchup against Boston Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello. The rookie has made two starts this season, posting an 0-1 record with a 10.13 ERA, 16% K rate, and 2.38 WHIP.
Expect the runs to come in bulk from this powerful top of the order, which has a .357 wOBA, the highest on the slate.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Christian Yelich OF ($4,700 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies (Chad Kuhl)
Removing the Yankees and Blue Jays in search of possible one-off plays, Milwaukee Brewers star Christian Yelich has the highest rating in our model on DraftKings. Yelich should be a popular option Sunday against pitcher Chad Kuhl of the Rockies. Projected to bat leadoff, Yelich should kickstart the Brewers’ offense, which is implied for 5.3 runs. Look for the Brewers outfielder to be a great one-off option Sunday despite the high price tag on DraftKings.
Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($5,600 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Atlanta Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. should be in the conversation Sunday, as he is projected for one of the highest ceilings. Facing pitcher Reid Detmers, who has a 2-3 record with a 4.11 ERA in 14 starts, looks to be an ideal spot for Acuna and the Braves. Acuna is slashing .262/.362/.409 with eight home runs, and he’s an easy choice for a ceiling outcome in a great matchup.
Bobby Dalbec 1B/3B ($2,100 DraftKings, $2,100 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Ross Stripling)
When looking for value, Bobby Dalbec jumps to the top with the highest projected Plus/Minus. Dalbec, at a near-minimum price tag on DraftKings, is slashing .210/.288/.358 with eight home runs. Boston has an implied total of five runs, and Dalbec — who is projected to bat sixth — should have an ideal outing in a matchup with a high implied total.
