The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features seven games starting at 1:35 p.m. ET to close out another summer weekend of great baseball. Keep an eye on the weather in Atlanta, with a forecast that calls for summer rains.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Michael Kopech ($8,200) Chicago White Sox (-195) vs. Detroit Tigers
Priced at $8,200 on DraftKings, Chicago White Sox pitcher Michael Kopech jumps to the top of the Player Model as one of the highest-rated pitchers on the slate. Kopech faces an up-and-down Detroit Tigers lineup with a 3.9-implied-run total, which is among the lowest on the slate. Returning to form this season, Kopech has started 15 games, posting a 2-6 record with a 3.34 ERA, 22.8% K rate, and 1.13 WHIP. Sunday’s matchup against the Tigers should allow Kopech, who is currently tagged for seven Pro Trends including a slate-high 7.53 strikeouts, to continue his dominance on the mound. Given the discount, expect Kopech to be a popular choice at SP1.
Eric Lauer ($10,100) Milwaukee Brewers (-181) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Eric Lauer looks to have an ideal matchup Sunday against a struggling Pittsburgh Pirates lineup. As part of a dominating Brewers starting rotation, Lauer has a 6-3 record in 15 starts, posting a 3.84 ERA, 25.4% K rate, and 1.19 WHIP. Implied for 3.5 runs Sunday, the Pirates have a 0.303 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the highest on the slate and a .295 wOBA, which is among the lowest. Despite the high price tag as one of the more expensive pitchers on the slate, Lauer is projected for 6.28 strikeouts and should remain a fantasy-relevant option due to his win-bonus upside.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Nick Lodolo ($6,900) Cincinnati Reds (+124) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Cincinnati Reds rookie pitcher Nick Lodolo projects as a top value Sunday, facing the boom-or-bust Tampa Bay Rays in the hitter-friendly venue of Great American Ballpark. Making four starts this season, Lodolo has a 1-2 record with a 4.19 ERA, 30.3% K rate, and 1.50 WHIP. The Rays have the highest strikeout-per-at-bat average at 0.309, which should make Lodolo a viable option at SP2, especially with strikeout upside. However, the Rays are implied for five runs Sunday, which could possibly make Lodolo’s outing shorter than expected. Proceed with caution.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Taijuan Walker ($8,800) New York Mets (-129) vs. Miami Marlins
New York Mets pitcher Taijuan Walker projects for one of highest ceilings on the slate and looks to be a pivot option at SP1, facing a Miami Marlins lineup that is implied to score a slate-low 3.4 runs. Quietly having a stellar first half, Walker has a 7-2 record in 14 starts, with a 2.86 ERA, 19% K rate and 1.14 WHIP. Projected for 5.53 strikeouts, Walker has an ideal matchup against a less-than-stellar Marlins lineup with a 0.243 strikeout-per-at-bat average and should come in at expected lower ownership from Kopech, Lauer and even Sandy Alcantara.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
- Matt Olson (3) ($4,700)
- Austin Riley (4) ($5,500)
- Dansby Swanson (2) ($5,900)
- Marcell Ozuna (5) ($4,200)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (1) ($6,200)
Implied for a slate-high 6.1 runs, the Atlanta Braves offense looks to be a top stack option Sunday. The Braves are scheduled to face Washington Nationals pitcher Paolo Espino, who has an 0-2 record in 48.2 innings pitched (five starts) with a 3.33 ERA, 18.6% K rate, and 1.19 WHIP . A top offense in the majors, the Braves lineup is loaded with power and discipline with a .342 wOBA, which is among the highest on the slate. Espino could certainly have a tough outing facing a top-tier offense.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings. The Braves’ top-of-the-order comes at a very high price tag, costing $26,500 for a five-man stack in an ideal position Sunday.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the Chicago White Sox:
In what looks like a spend-down choice from the Braves, the White Sox 1-2-3-4-5 stack projects for one of the highest ceilings, according to THE BAT. Priced at $23,300 on DraftKings, the White Sox offense gets a matchup against Detroit Tigers veteran pitcher Drew Hutchison with a 5.3 implied total. Hutchison has had his share of less-than-stellar outings this season, posting a 1-4 record with a 4.30 ERA, 14.6% K rate, and 1.43 WHIP.
Expect the runs to come in bulk from this powerful top of the order, which also has a 0.214 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a .322 wOBA.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Yandy Diaz 3B ($4,500 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds (Nick Lodolo)
Removing the Braves and White Sox in search of possible one-off plays, Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Yandy Diaz has the highest rating in our model on DraftKings. Diaz should be a popular option Sunday against rookie pitcher Nick Lodolo of the Reds. Projected to bat leadoff, Diaz should kickstart the Rays’ offense, which is implied for five runs. Look for the Rays infielder to be a great one-off option Sunday despite the high price tag on DraftKings.
Jose Ramirez 3B ($5,400 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals (Zack Greinke)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Cleveland Guardians’ third baseman Jose Ramirez should be in the conversation Sunday, as he is projected for one of the highest ceilings. Facing veteran pitcher Zack Greinke, who has a 2-5 record with a 4.86 ERA in 13 starts, looks to be an ideal spot for Ramirez and the Guardians, who are implied for 4.5 runs in the hitter-friendly venue of Kauffman Stadium. Ramirez is slashing .291/.372/.585 with 17 home runs, and he’s an easy choice for a ceiling outcome in a great matchup.
Josh Lowe OF ($2,400 DraftKings, $2,100 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds (Nick Lodolo)
When looking for value, Josh Lowe jumps to the top with the highest projected Plus/Minus. Lowe is priced close the minimum at $2,400 and looks to be in an ideal matchup against Cincinnati Reds pitcher Nick Lodolo. Tampa Bay has an implied total of five runs, and at a minimum price tag, Lowe — who is projected to bat fifth — can open up salary relief to unlock high-priced bats with top-tier arms or high-priced stacks.
