The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features eight games starting at 1:35 p.m. ET to close out a late-summer weekend of baseball. Keep an eye on the weather in Minnesota, which continues to have rain concerns.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Corbin Burnes ($10,300) Milwaukee Brewers (-275) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers ace Corbin Burnes jumps to the top of the Player Model on Sunday in what looks to be a prime matchup at home against the Cincinnati Reds, who are implied for a slate-low 2.9 runs. As the most expensive pitcher on the slate, Burnes should make easy work against a projected Reds lineup with a 0.291 strikeout-per-at-bat average — one of the highest on the slate — and a .287 wOBA. A dominant arm in the majors and part of a feared Milwaukee Brewers starting rotation, Burnes has an 8-5 record in 21 starts with a 2.49 ERA, 32% K rate, and 0.95 WHIP and should be a popular option at SP1.
Per the Trends tool, Burnes averages 23.41 actual DraftKings points and has a +4.47 Plus/Minus as a home favorite of -275 or greater.
Aaron Nola ($10,000) Philadelphia Phillies (-330) vs. Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies ace Aaron Nola also looks to be a popular choice at SP1 Sunday, listed as a massive favorite against a slumping Washington Nationals lineup, which is implied for 3.1 runs. As a slight spend-down option from Burnes, Nola looks likely to have a similar outcome, even against a more disciplined Nationals lineup with a 0.209 strikeout-per-at-bat average. Also like Burnes, Nola has been dominant this season. In 21 starts, he has a 7-8 record with a 3.25 ERA, 28% K rate, and 0.94 WHIP, and he should also benefit from the win-bonus upside. Sunday’s slate is shaping up to be a tough decision between two top-tier arms.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Kevin Gausman ($9,200) Toronto Blue Jays (-168) at Minnesota Twins
Following the trend of choosing a high-priced arm, Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Kevin Gausman projects as one of the top values on the slate, even in a matchup against a disciplined Minnesota Twins projected lineup that has a 0.224 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a .330 wOBA. In 20 starts this season, Gausman has an 8-8 record with a 3.06 ERA, 28% K rate, and 1.24 WHIP, and he looks to also benefit from the potential of having win-bonus upside with the Twins implied for only 3.6 runs. Gausman will need to rely on the powerful Blue Jays bats to provide run support for him to be more of a fantasy-relevant option, given the higher price tag — $9,200 on DraftKings. Also, keep an eye on the weather around Target Field.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jesus Luzardo ($9,100) Miami Marlins (-103) at Chicago Cubs
One option in the top-tier range who might be overlooked is Miami Marlins pitcher Jesus Luzardo, who appears to have an ideal matchup against the strikeout-prone Chicago Cubs, even in a weather game at Wrigley Field. With the wind blowing out in Chicago, Luzardo might have a more difficult time keeping the ball in the park with the Cubs implied to score 4.3 runs Sunday. However, Chicago has a 0.258 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the highest on the slate and should add to Luzardo’s upside, as he is projected for one of the highest ceilings on the slate. A risky choice at pitcher, Luzardo has a 2-4 record with a 3.97 ERA, 33% K rate, and 1.09 WHIP in seven games. But in GPPs, he might be the key that unlocks the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
- Francisco Mejia (7) ($3,500)
- Ji-Man Choi (2) ($3,600)
- Brandon Lowe (1) ($5,200)
- Randy Arozarena (6) ($4,900)
- Luke Raley (5) ($2,000)
Implied for 4.7 runs, the Tampa Bay Rays look to be a top stack option on Sunday’s slate and are in prime position to generate runs against Matt Manning, an inexperienced pitcher for the Detroit Tigers who has only made three starts on the year, posting a 3.46 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. The Rays are a boom-or-bust option to stack, posting a 0.278 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the highest on the slate, but they also can generate baserunners, posting a .317 wOBA.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings, but this stack can be the exception. This Rays stack comes at an affordable $19,200 price tag, especially when adding Luke Raley, who is projected to bat fifth and is priced at the minimum.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
In what looks like a spend-up choice from the Rays, the Phillies stack projects for one of the highest ceilings, according to THE BAT. Priced at an affordable $21,400 on DraftKings, the Phillies offense gets a matchup against Washington Nationals pitcher Cory Abbott. The second-year starter has made one start this season and does not necessarily look to be stretched out, especially facing a powerful Phillies lineup with a .326 wOBA and a six-run implied total, which is the highest on the slate.
Expect the runs to come in bulk from this powerful lineup.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Christian Yelich OF ($5,400 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds (Graham Ashcraft)
Removing the Rays and Phillies in search of possible one-off plays, Milwaukee Brewers superstar Christian Yelich has the highest rating in our model on DraftKings. Yelich should be a popular option Sunday against pitcher Graham Ashcraft of the Reds. Projected to bat leadoff, Yelich should kickstart the Brewers’ offense, which is implied for 4.8 runs. Look for the Brewers outfielder to be a great one-off option Sunday despite the high price tag on DraftKings.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge should be in the conversation Sunday, as he is projected for one of the highest ceilings. Facing pitcher Adam Wainwright, who has an 8-8 record with a 3.11 ERA in 21 starts, looks to be a more difficult spot for Yankees and Judge. Judge, however, is slashing .299/.387/.670 with 43 home runs, and he’s an easy choice for a ceiling outcome with home-run upside.
Tucupita Marcano OF ($2,000 DraftKings, $2,300 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles (Spenser Watkins)
When looking for value, Tucupita Marcano jumps to the top with the highest projected Plus/Minus. Marcano, at the minimum price tag on DraftKings, is slashing .244/.293/.372 with two home runs. Pittsburgh has an implied total of four runs, and Marcano — who is projected to bat leadoff — should have an ideal outing in a matchup with a high implied total, which should also open up rosters to more expensive pitching options.
