The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Lock in for Sunday’s 10-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET. After a few days of weather concerns, especially on the east coast, all games look clean from a weather perspective.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Nestor Cortes ($9,300) New York Yankees (-152) at Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees stud pitcher Nestor Cortes highlights the Sunday slate as a top pitching option, leading the Yankees, who are a modest favorite against the American League East rival Baltimore Orioles. Priced at $9,300 on DraftKings, the highest on the slate, Cortes looks to build off his 2022 breakout season with a 2-0 start. Cortes is projected for 6.37 strikeouts, which is the highest among probable pitchers today, and he looks to have an ideal path to being a fantasy-relevant option against an Orioles lineup with a 3.7 implied total and a 0.259 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is among the highest on the slate.
In his first start of the season, Cortes recorded a win in an 8-1 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies on April 3, going five innings and recording three strikeouts while allowing one earned run on seven hits.
Given the sky-high salary, expect Cortes to be a very popular option Sunday, as reflected by his slate-leading projected ownership. Cortes, despite the projected popularity, might not be one to overthink.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Kutter Crawford ($5,800) Boston Red Sox (-117) at Detroit Tigers
Second year starter Kutter Crawford projects for the highest Plus/Minus, making him an excellent value option taking the mound for the Boston Red Sox, who face a weak Detroit Tigers projected lineup with a 0.289 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
Crawford made 12 starts in 2022, recording a 3-6 record with an 8.96 K/9, 23% K rate, and 1.42 WHIP. He looks to bounce back from a less-than-stellar outing in his first start of the 2023 campaign, a 7-6 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates, where he allowed seven earned runs in four innings despite a six-strikeout performance.
Given the deep discount on DraftKings and a weak projected opposing lineup, Crawford is a likely salary-relief option with strikeout upside, as he’s projected for 5.56 strikeouts.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jon Gray ($8,600) Texas Rangers (-107) at Chicago Cubs
Texas Rangers pitcher Jon Gray looks to be a serious contender for GPPs on Sunday, likely coming in at lower-than-expected ownership with a high ceiling against a Chicago Cubs squad looking for the series sweep.
The Cubs are implied for 4.1 runs on Sunday’s slate, and luckily for Gray, they have a 0.269 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the highest on the slate. Further, Gray is also projected for 6.14 strikeouts, putting him as one of the top pitching options on the slate, and he can easily pay off his high salary if he reaches this mark.
Gray is looking to turn it around after a 2-0 loss to the Baltimore Orioles on April 3, where he went 6.1 innings, struck out seven batters and allowed two earned runs on seven hits. He should fly under the radar, especially with Cortes appearing as the likely SP1.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
The mighty Rays bats have the highest implied total on the slate at 5.2 runs and look to keep their undefeated season in place against James Kaprielian of the Oakland Athletics, who recorded a 4.23 ERA in 26 starts last year with a 9.00 K/9, 20% K rate, and 1.80 WHIP. To start the 2023 season, Kaprielian recorded a no-decision after going five innings in a 12-11 loss to the Cleveland Guardians, recording five strikeouts and allowing five earned runs on seven hits.
An affordable option priced at $21,000, this hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack provides tremendous upside, posting one of the highest team wOBAs at .323. Given the probability this effective Rays lineup can generate runs, look for the top of the order to be a popular choice Sunday, and it looks to have value with Luke Raley projected to bat fifth at $2,500.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jesse Winker OF ($3,200 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Jake Woodford)
Using the blended model, Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jesse Winker has the highest rating Sunday. Likely hitting second for the Brewers, Winker looks to kickstart a Milwaukee Brewers offense with a 5.1-run total, which is one of the highest on the slate. It’s an ideal matchup against Jake Woodford, who had a less than ideal outing against the Braves on April 3, allowing six earned runs on seven hits and earning the loss.
Aside from extreme salary relief, Winker brings plenty of ability to the Brewers despite hitting .219/.344/.344 with 14 home runs in 136 games last season. Look for Winker to be a solid one-off option or a key part of a Brewers stack, providing consistency against an ideal pitcher.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,500 DraftKings; $4,400 FanDuel) New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (Tyler Wells)
One of the top bats in MLB, Yankees superstar Aaron Judge projects for the highest ceiling on the slate in what looks to be an ideal matchup against Tyler Wells in a matchup with a modest 4.5-run total. In 23 starts last season, Wells recorded a 4.25 ERA with a 7-7 record, 18% K rate, and 1.14 WHIP, and he had a stellar outing to start the 2023 season, posting five no-hit innings and striking out two Rangers’ batters in a 2-0 Orioles victory despite earning a no-decision.
Judge, despite his sky-high price tag of $6,500 on DraftKings, is a dangerous option to generate runs, and he could be a one-off play or a key member of a Yankees stack. In seven games this season, Judge is batting .296/.387/.519 with two home runs. Likely batting second, expect Judge to jumpstart the Yankees’ scoring.
Akil Baddoo OF ($2,000 DraftKings; $2,000 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox (Kutter Crawford)
Detroit Tigers outfield Akil Baddoo projects as a top value option in the blended projection set as the Tigers look to avoid the sweep against the Red Sox. Baddoo is expected to face Kutter Crawford, who had a less-than-stellar outing in his first outing of the 2023 campaign, a 7-6 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates, allowing seven earned runs in four innings.
Baddoo, who is projected to bat leadoff, looks to be a fantasy-relevant option as part of a Detroit Tigers offense with a 4.3-run implied total despite a higher-than-average 0.286 strikeout-per-at-bat average. Recently called up from the Tigers’ Triple-A affiliate, Baddoo appeared in 73 games last season and batted .204/.289/.269 with two home runs. Looks for the Tigers’ leadoff hitter to provide a solid floor, and he’s an ideal one-off play who can provide salary relief for higher-priced stacks, especially at the minimum price on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
