The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Close out the weekend and the first month of the 2023 MLB season with a nine-game slate starting at 1:35 p.m ET. Be sure to keep an eye on the weather, with issues likely in New York, Boston, Washington and Chicago.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Spencer Strider ($10,900) Atlanta Braves (-180) at New York Mets
Young Atlanta Braves ace Spencer Strider highlights the Sunday slate as a top pitching option, as the Braves are a modest favorite against their National League East rival New York Mets. Priced at a slate-high $10,900 on DraftKings, Strider is one of the more consistent pitching options available and is projected for a slate-high 7.5 strikeouts, and he looks to have an ideal path to being a fantasy-relevant option against a Mets lineup with a slate-low 3.3 implied total despite a lower-than-average 0.213 strikeout-per-at-bat ratio.
The third-year starter has put up top-tier numbers this season, making five starts with a 3-0 record, 14.70 K/9, 42.6% K rate, 1.80 ERA, and 0.83 WHIP. In an 11-0 win over the Miami Marlins on Apr. 24, Strider went eight innings while striking out 13 batters and allowing two hits,
Despite the sky-high salary, expect Strider to be a popular option Sunday, as reflected by his slate-leading projected ownership. A word of caution — keep an eye on the weather, as a postponement or delay certainly cannot be ruled out, which is a costly risk for the most expensive pitcher on the slate.
Note: Braves-Mets has been postponed Sunday.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Josiah Gray ($6,200) Washington Nationals (+120) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Washington Nationals pitcher Josiah Gray projects for the highest Plus/Minus on Sunday’s slate, making him an excellent value option against a Pittsburgh Pirates projected lineup with a 0.257 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the higher averages on the slate.
Projected for 5.68 strikeouts at an affordable salary, Gray immediately becomes a fantasy-relevant option but certainly comes with risk against a hot Pirates squad that currently leads the NL Central. Making five starts this season, Gray has a 2.93 ERA, 8.13 K/9, 21.4% K rate, and 1.34 WHIP. In his start against the New York Mets on Apr. 25, Gray went six innings, struck out nine batters, and allowed four hits.
The risk might pay dividends Sunday when rostering Gray to get to higher-priced stacks, given the higher-than-expected strikeout average from Pittsburgh.
This is also a spot to attack on PrizePicks, where Gray’s strikeout line sits at 5.0. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match,
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Nestor Cortes ($10,100) New York Yankees (-125) at Texas Rangers
New York Yankees pitcher Nestor Cortes looks to be a serious contender for GPPs on Sunday, likely coming in at lower-than-expected ownership with a high ceiling against a Texas Rangers squad playing at home with an implied 3.9-run total on Sunday’s slate. Cortes is facing a Rangers team with a higher-than-average 0.267 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a low .317 wOBA. Projected for 6.58 strikeouts, which remains one of the highest on the slate, Cortes looks to be an excellent pivot from Strider and comes at an $800 discount.
Cortes continues to put up stellar numbers, posting a 3-1 record in five starts with a 3.49 ERA, 8.89 K/9, 24.3% K Rate, and 1.06 WHIP. He should fly under the radar, especially with Strider appearing as the likely SP1.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
The mighty Blue Jays bats have a slate-high implied total at 5.5 runs in an ideal matchup against Marco Gonzales of the Seattle Mariners, who has a 7.06 K/9, 3.32 ERA, 19% K rate, and 1.25 WHIP in four starts this season.
An expensive option priced at $25,700, this hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack provides tremendous upside with a team wOBA of .337, one of the highest on the slate. This effective Blue Jays lineup can generate runs at will, and look for the top-of-the-order to be a popular choice Sunday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Randy Arozarena OF ($5,900 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox (Mike Clevenger)
Using the blended model, Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena has the highest rating Sunday. Projected to hit third for the Rays, Arozarena looks to power a Rays offense with a high 5.4-run total. It’s an ideal matchup against Mike Clevenger, who has made five starts on the year and has posted a 4.81 ERA, 16% K rate, and 1.60 WHIP.
Arozarena brings plenty of ability to the Rays lineup, batting .333/.400/.590 with seven home runs this season. He’s a solid one-off option or a key part of a Rays stack, providing consistency against an ideal pitcher Sunday.
Shohei Ohtani OF ($6,400 DraftKings; $4,200 FanDuel) Los Angeles Angels at Milwaukee Brewers (Colin Rea)
One of the top players in MLB, Los Angeles Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani projects for the highest ceiling on the slate in what looks to be an ideal matchup against Colin Rea with the Angels having a 4.5-run implid total. Rea has had a less-than-stellar year, posting an 0-1 record after three starts with a 5.17 ERA, 5.17 K/9, 14% K rate, and 1.21 WHIP, and the almost unfadeable Ohtani should kickstart the Angels offense batting third.
Ohtani is a dangerous option to generate runs despite his sky-high price tag of $6,400 on DraftKings, and he could be a one-off play or a key member of an Angels stack. In 27 games this season, Ohtani is batting .292/.350/.519 with six home runs. He is definitely worth the spend-up against a weak pitcher.
Mike Brosseau 3B ($2,400 DraftKings; $2,400 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels (Jose Suarez)
Milwaukee Brewers’ third baseman Mike Brosseau projects as a top value option in the blended projection set as the Brew Crew take on the Los Angeles Angels. Brosseau is slated to bat cleanup against Jose Suarez, who has a 10.26 ERA, 14% K rate, and 2.28 WHIP in four starts this season.
Look for plenty of opportunities to generate runs in this matchup with an implied total of 5.1 runs. In 16 games this season, Brosseau is batting .244/.306/.489 with three home runs and is integral to Milwaukee’s offense, and he’s an ideal one-off play who can provide salary relief for higher-priced stacks.
