The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Lock in for Sunday’s 10-game main slate starting at 1:35 p.m. ET. As of this writing all games look to play clean, equaling a wonderful spring slate.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Jacob deGrom ($11,900) Texas Rangers (-360) vs. Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers ace Jacob deGrom highlights the Sunday slate as a top pitching option for the Rangers, who are a massive favorite against the Oakland Athletics. Priced at a slate-high $11,900 on DraftKings, deGrom is one of the more consistent pitching options available and is projected for 10.52 strikeouts, which is the highest among probable pitchers Sunday, and he looks to have an ideal path to being a fantasy-relevant option against an Athletics lineup with a slate-low 2.5 implied total despite a lower-than-average 0.234 strikeout-per-at-bat ratio.
Despite a shorter-than-expected outing on Apr. 17, it appears deGrom is good to go, and he has reported no issues with the wrist injury.
deGrom has put up elite numbers in three starts this season, posting a 1-0 record in four starts with a 13.94 K/9, 3.48 ERA, 40% K Rate, and 0.87 WHIP.
Despite the sky-high salary, expect deGrom to be a popular option Sunday, as reflected by his slate-leading projected ownership. Despite the likely popularity, deGrom might not be one to overthink.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Grayson Rodriguez ($6,000) Baltimore Orioles (-175) vs. Detroit Tigers
Baltimore Orioles rookie starter Grayson Rodriguez projects for the highest Plus/Minus on Sunday’s slate, making him an excellent value option against a weak Detroit Tigers projected lineup with a 0.283 strikeout-per-at-bat average, the highest on the slate.
Projected for 6.51 strikeouts at an affordable salary, Rodriguez immediately becomes a fantasy-relevant option but certainly comes with risk. Making three starts this season, Rodriguez has a 6.91 ERA, 11.93 K/9, 29.2% K rate, and 1.60 WHIP. In his start against the Chicago White Sox on Apr. 16, Rodriguez went five innings, struck out eight batters, and allowed four runs on six hits.
The risk might pay dividends Sunday when rostering Rodriguez to get to higher-priced stacks.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Clayton Kershaw ($10,700) Los Angeles Dodgers (-190) at Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw looks to be a serious contender for GPPs on Sunday, likely coming in at lower-than-expected ownership with a high ceiling against a Chicago Cubs squad playing at home with an implied 3.6-run total on Sunday’s slate. The future first-ballot Hall of Famer has a tough matchup, facing a Cubs team with a 0.237 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a high .321 wOBA. But Kershaw can make easy work of any team, and he is projected for 6.5 strikeouts, which remains one of the highest on the slate.
Kershaw continues to put up stellar numbers, posting a 3-1 record in four starts with a 2.52 ERA, 9.36 K/9, 26.5% K Rate, and 0.92 WHIP. He should fly under the radar, especially with deGrom appearing as the likely SP1, and looks to be an excellent pivot.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The mighty Braves bats have a high implied total at 4.3 runs despite a difficult matchup against Cristian Javier of the Houston Astros, who has a 7.77 K/9, 3.68 ERA, 20% K rate, and 1.14 WHIP in four starts this season.
An expensive option priced at $24,400, this hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack provides tremendous upside with a team wOBA of .328, one of the highest on the slate. This effective Braves lineup can generate runs at will, and look for the top of the order to be a popular choice Sunday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
George Springer OF ($5,200 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees (Clarke Schmidt)
Using the blended model, Toronto Blue Jays outfielder George Springer has the highest rating Sunday. Hitting leadoff for the Blue Jays, Springer looks to kickstart a Toronto offense with a modest 4.6-run total. It’s an ideal matchup against Clarke Schmidt, who makes his fourth start of the year and has posted an 8.79 ERA, 22% K rate, and 1.81 WHIP.
Springer brings plenty of ability to the Blue Jays lineup, batting .209/.277/.326 with three home runs this season. He’s a solid one-off option or a key part of a Blue Jays stack, providing consistency against an ideal pitcher Sunday.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,100 DraftKings; $4,300 FanDuel) New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Kevin Gausman)
One of the top bats in MLB, New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge projects for the highest ceiling on the slate in what looks to be a difficult matchup against Kevin Gausman in a matchup with a 4.1-run total. Gausman has had an up-and-down year this season, posting a 1-2 record after four starts with a 3.65 ERA, 10.95 K/9, 29% K rate, and 1.18 WHIP, and the almost unfadeable Judge should kickstart the Yankees offense batting second.
Judge is a dangerous option to generate runs despite his sky-high price tag of $6,100 on DraftKings, and he could be a one-off play or a key member of a Yankees stack. In 21 games this season, Judge is batting .257/.360/.527 with six home runs. He is definitely worth the spend-up.
Gausman is also a target on PrizePicks, where his strikeout line is an inflated 6.5 whiffs. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
Tucupita Marcano OF ($2,000 DraftKings; $2,000 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds (Hunter Greene)
Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Tucupita Marcano projects as a top value option in the blended projection set as the Pirates take on the Cincinnati Reds in one of the more ideal ballparks in MLB. Marcano is slated to bat second against Hunter Greene, who has a 4.24 ERA, 30% K rate, and 1.53 WHIP in four starts this season.
Look for plenty of opportunity to generate runs in this matchup, despite an implied total of 3.9 runs. In eight games this season, Marcano is batting .308/.400/.615 and is integral to Pittsburgh’s offense, and he’s an ideal one-off play who can provide salary relief for higher-priced stacks, especially at the minimum salary on both sites.
