The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Close out the first weekend of the 2023 MLB season with Sunday’s 10-game main slate starting at 1:10 p.m. ET. The forecast calls for perfect day of baseball, without any weather issues for the main slate.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Jeffrey Springs ($7,800) New York Mets (-225) at Miami Marlins
The Tigers have a slate-low 3.1 implied total on Sunday’s slate, making Tampa Bay Rays starter Jeffrey Springs an obvious choice for a starting pitcher option. Springs and the Rays are a massive -225 favorite, and Springs has a 6.54-K projection, one of the highest on the slate.
Priced at $7,800 on DraftKings, Springs had a breakout season in the Rays’ 2022 campaign, throwing 135.1 innings in 25 games and going 9-5 with a 2.46 ERA, 9.58 K/9, 1.07 WHIP, and 26.2% K rate. Given the lower salary, expect Springs to be a very popular option Sunday, as reflected by his slate-leading projected ownership.
In an ideal spot for Springs, expect the sixth-year starter to continue his dominance from last season against a Tigers’ projected lineup with a 0.251 strikeout-per-at-bat rate, which is also one of the highest on the slate, and he should also benefit from one of the highest park-factor ratings in Tropicana Park. Springs, despite the projected popularity, might not be one to overthink.
You can take advantage of Springs’ matchup on PrizePicks as well, where his strikeout prop is appealing.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Jared Shuster ($5,300) Atlanta Braves (-194) at Washington Nationals
The Braves are starting Jared Shuster, who makes his Major League debut Sunday against the Washington Nationals. The left-handed Shuster costs $5,300 on DraftKings and projects for the highest Plus/Minus, making him an excellent value option against a weak Nationals lineup with a 0.251 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
Shuster made 27 starts at Double-A and Triple-A in 2022, posting a 7-10 record and a 4.25 ERA at the latter level. Projected for 4.67 strikeouts, Shuster can easily become a fantasy-relevant option, which can open up salary for more expensive bats on a slate with plenty of value pitching.
Despite a 3.9 implied total for the Nationals, look for Shuster to likely go deep in the game, saving the Braves bullpen as they go for the sweep against their National League East rivals.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Luis Garcia ($8,500) Houston Astros (-178) vs. Chicago White Sox
Houston Astros pitcher Luis Garcia looks to be a serious contender for GPPs Sunday, likely coming in at lower-than-expected ownership against a Chicago White Sox squad looking to avoid a sweep.
The White Sox, who are implied for 3.8 runs Sunday, are one more powerful offense in the league and boast a slate-low 0.198 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a modest .312 wOBA. Garcia is projected for 5.42 strikeouts, which will help make him a fantasy-relevant option, but his win-bonus upside will be key to unlocking his ceiling to potentially break the slate.
Projecting for the second-highest ceiling behind only Springs, look for the fourth-year starter to continue his dominance with the mighty Astros offense supporting him. In the 2022 season, Garcia pitched 157.1 innings in 28 starts, posting a 15-8 record with a 3.72 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 24.4% K rate. Despite the difficult matchup, Garcia warrants a second look at SP1.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Houston Astros:
The mighty Astros bats have one of the highest implied totals on the slate at 4.9 runs and face Mike Clevinger, who makes his White Sox debut. Returning from Tommy John surgery that cost him the 2021 season, Clevenger started 22 games last season, posting a 7-7 record with a 4.33 ERA and a career-low 18% K rate.
An expensive option, priced at $26,100, this hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack provides tremendous upside, posting one of the lowest strikeout-per-at-bat averages at 0.233 and one of the highest team wOBAs at .339. Given the probability this effective Astros lineup can generate runs, look for the top of the order to be a popular choice Sunday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Alex Verdugo OF ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles (Cole Irvin)
Using the blended model, Boston Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo has the highest rating Sunday. Likely hitting leadoff for the Red Sox, Verdugo looks to kickstart a Red Sox offense with a 5.2-run total, which is one of the highest on the slate. It’s an ideal matchup against Irvin, who posted a 9-13 record in 30 starts, with a 3.98 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 17.3% K rate as a member of the Oakland Athletics in 2022.
Verdugo brings plenty of ability to the Red Sox, batting .280/.328/.405 with 11 home runs in 152 games last season. Despite the high $4,4oo price tag, look for Verdugo to be a solid one-off option or a key part of a Red Sox stack, providing consistency against an ideal pitcher.
Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($6,200 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals (MacKenzie Gore)
One of the top bats in MLB, Atlanta Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. projects for the highest ceiling on the slate in what looks to be an ideal matchup against MacKenzie Gore in a matchup with a 5.3-run total, which is one of the highest on the slate. Gore, who is entering his second Major League season, posted a 4-4 record in 13 starts as a member of the San Diego Padres in 2022, recording a 23.3% K rate and a 1.47 WHIP.
Acuna, despite his sky-high price tag of $6,200 on DraftKings, is a dangerous option to generate runs, and he could be a one-off play or a key member of a Braves stack. Acuna appeared in 119 games last season in his return from an ACL injury, batting .266/.351/.413 with 15 home runs. Likely batting leadoff, expect Acuna to jumpstart the Braves’ scoring, especially facing an inconsistent pitcher in Gore.
Jesse Winker OF ($2,900 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (Jameson Taillon)
Newly acquired outfield Jesse Winker projects as a top value option in the blended projection set in what looks to be a high-scoring affair at the Friendly Confines. Winker is expected to face Jameson Taillon, who makes his Cubs debut after spending two seasons with the New York Yankees. In the 2022 season, Taillon started 32 games, posting a 14-5 record with a 3.91 ERA, 20.7% K rate and 1.13 WHIP.
Winker, who is projected to bat second, looks to be a fantasy-relevant option as part of a Milwaukee Brewers offense with a 4.5-run implied total despite a higher-than-average 0.274 strikeout-per-at-bat average. As a member of the Seattle Mariners last season, Winker appeared in 136 games last season, slashing .219/.344/.344 with 14 home runs. Looks for the veteran to provide a solid floor, and he’s an ideal one-off play who can provide salary relief for higher-priced stacks.
