The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Lock in for Sunday’s 10-game main slate starting at 1:10 p.m. ET. Be sure to keep an eye on the weather in Detroit and Baltimore, which look to have the highest chances of rain today.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($10,900) New York Yankees (-162) vs. Minnesota Twins
New York Yankees stud Gerrit Cole highlights the Sunday slate as a top pitching option, leading the Yankees, who are a modest favorite the Minnesota Twins. Priced at a slate-high $10,900 on DraftKings, Cole is one of the more consistent pitching options available and is projected for 9.12 strikeouts, which is the highest among probable pitchers today, and he looks to have an ideal path to being a fantasy-relevant option against an Twins lineup with a slate-low 3.2 implied total despite a lower-than-average 0.234 strikeout-per-at-bat ratio.
Cole has put up elite numbers in three starts this season despite not yet recording a win, including a 1.40 ERA, 10.24 K/9, 31% K rate, and 0.93 WHIP.
Despite the sky-high salary, expect Cole to be a very popular option Sunday, as reflected by his slate-leading projected ownership. Despite the projected popularity, Cole might not be one to overthink.
You can also take advantage of Cole’s hot start to the season on PrizePicks, where his strikeout line is a modest 8.0. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Logan Webb ($7,400) San Francisco Giants (-156) at Detroit Tigers
San Francisco Giants starter Logan Webb projects for the highest Plus/Minus on Sunday’s slate, making him an excellent value option against a weak Detroit Tigers projected lineup with a 0.286 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
Projected for 6.44 strikeouts at an affordable salary, Webb immediately becomes a fantasy-relevant option and provides lineups with a high floor. Making three starts this season, Webb has a 4.76 ERA, 11.65 K/9, 31.4% K rate, and 1.24 WHIP, and he should certainly make easy work against a Tigers lineup that also has a .310 wOBA, which is one of the lowest on the slate.
However, keep an eye on weather conditions for Sunday’s game, which may limit Webb’s outing.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Aaron Nola ($8,400) Philadelphia Phillies (-190) at Cincinnati Reds
Philadelphia Phillies ace Aaron Nola looks to be a serious contender for GPPs on Sunday, likely coming in at lower-than-expected ownership with a high ceiling against a Cincinnati Reds squad playing at home in one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in the Majors.
The Reds are implied for 3.9 runs on Sunday’s slate, and luckily for Nola, they have a 0.273 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the highest on the slate. Nola is projected for 7.2 strikeouts, putting him as one of the top pitching options on the slate, and he can easily pay off his high salary if he reaches this mark.
Looking to get his first win of the season, Nola is pitching in a less-than-stellar environment, but as with all elite arms, he can make easy work of any lineup. In three starts this season, Nola has a 7.04 ERA, 8.80 K/9, 22.4% K rate, and 1.50 WHIP — making him a prime candidate for a get-right spot. He should fly under the radar, especially with Cole appearing as the likely SP1.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The mighty Phillies bats have the highest implied total on the slate at 5.3 runs and look to be in a prime position to generate runs against Luis Cessa of the Cincinnati Reds, who has a 3.00 K/9, 7.00 ERA, 7% K rate, and 1.78 WHIP in two starts this season.
An expensive option priced at $24,400, this hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack provides tremendous upside even with a modest team wOBA of .318. Given the probability this effective Phillies lineup can generate runs, look for the top of the order to be a popular choice Sunday in the ideal venue of Great American Ballpark.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Andrew Benintendi OF ($3,700 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles (Grayson Rodriguez)
Using the blended model, Chicago White Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi has the highest rating Sunday. Likely hitting leadoff for the White Sox, Benintendi looks to kickstart a Chicago offense with a modest 4.4-run total. It’s an ideal matchup against Grayson Rodriguez, who makes the third start of his rookie year and has posted a 6.75 ERA, 25% K rate, and 1.61 WHIP in his first two.
Benintendi brings plenty of ability to the White Sox, slashing .276/.323/.328 this season. He’s a solid one-off option or a key part of a White Sox stack, providing consistency against an ideal pitcher.
Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($6,500 DraftKings; $4,400 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves at Kansas City Royals (Zack Greinke)
One of the top bats in MLB, Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. projects for the highest ceiling on the slate in what looks to be an ideal matchup against Zack Greinke in a matchup with a high 5.1-run total. The veteran Greinke has an 0-3 record with a 6.06 K/9, 3.31 ERA, and 15% K rate this year, and the almost unfadeable Acuna should kickstart the Braves offense from the leadoff spot.
Acuna is a dangerous option to generate runs despite his sky-high price tag of $6,500 on DraftKings, and he could be a one-off play or a key member of a Braves stack. In 15 games this season, Acuna is batting .365/.452/.556 with three home runs.
Rob Refsnyder OF ($2,700 DraftKings; $2,300 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
Boston Red Sox outfielder Rob Refsnyder projects as a top value option in the blended projection set as the Red Sox take on the Los Angles Angels. Refsnyder is projected to bat third against Reid Detmers, who has a 5.59 ERA, 26% K rate, and 1.45 WHIP in two starts this season.
Look for plenty of runs in this matchup with Boston currently implied for 4.9 runs. In 11 games this season, Refsnyder is batting .200/.351/.333 and is integral to Boston’s offense, and he’s an ideal one-off play who can provide salary relief for higher-priced stacks.
