The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features 10 games starting at 1:05 p.m. ET to close out the first weekend of the regular season.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Fredy Peralta ($10,200) Milwaukee Brewers (-131) at Chicago Cubs
Brewers pitcher Freddy Peralta projects for the highest ceiling on Sunday’s massive 10-game slate. After a lackluster outing from Brandon Woodruff in Saturday’s 9-0 loss to the Cubs, the Brewers will need to rely on Peralta to jump-start a sluggish start to the season. Last season, Peralta was one of the more dominant pitchers in the league, ranking fourth among starters who have thrown more than 140 innings with a 33.3% K rate and a 0.95 WHIP.
Projected for 6.63 strikeouts and facing a Cubs team that has traditionally struggled at the plate sets up an ideal situation for the Milwaukee arm. The Cubs have an implied run total of 3.6, and the series finale is expected to be a lower-scoring affair, with a total of 7.5.
Peralta is the most expensive arm on the slate, but with a 56% Bargain Rating on Draftkings, should be considered as an SP1, despite a higher projected ownership among pitchers.
Corey Kluber ($7,400) Tampa Bay Ray (-210) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Priced at $7,400 on DraftKings, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Corey Kluber seems to be one of the more underpriced arms on the slate. A massive -210 favorite against the Baltimore Orioles, Kluber has a 79% Bargain Rating, only lower than White Sox arm Michael Kopech and a Player Rating of 65.7 (Tournament Model).
Starting 16 games last season as a member of the New York Yankees, Kluber went 5-3 in 80 innings, posting a 9.23 K per 9, a 24% K rate, and a 1.34 WHIP. Facing a Baltimore Orioles squad projected for 5.75 strikeouts should allow Kluber to easily pay off his lower-than-usual salary, and he has a Projected Plus/Minus of +5.75, making him one of the value plays on the slate, especially paired with a higher-priced arm in Peralta.
Per the Trends tool, in 49 matchups where Kluber is more than a -200 Moneyline favorite, he has averaged 26.36 actual DraftKings points and a +5.30 Plus/Minus rating.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Michael Kopech ($5,600) Chicago White Sox (-142) at Detroit Tigers
Returning to the starting rotation, Michael Kopech takes the mound for the Chicago White Sox and projects as the top value on the slate, facing the Detroit Tigers. Primarily used in relief last season, Kopech went 4-3 with a 3.50 ERA, 36.1% K rate, and a 1.13 WHIP. Sunday’s matchup looks ideal for pitchers from a weather perspective, posting a slate-high Weather Rating of 78, mainly due to cold temperatures and lower wind speeds in Detroit.
Because of Kopech’s discounted salary of $5,600 on DraftKings, our Tournament Model gives him a Projected Plus/Minus of +10.63 and a 99% Bargain Rating. Surprisingly, Kopech is also projected for the most strikeouts on the slate, with our models expecting a mean output of 6.9 strikeouts against the Tigers, which should be more than enough for him to see fantasy relevance.
However, Kopech could see high ownership, given the matchup and price.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Tyler Wells ($5,200) Baltimore Orioles (+173) at Tamp Bay Rays
Anecdotally, Baltimore pitchers can be slate-breakers, and with extremely low ownership on DraftKings, Tyler Wells could be overlooked on today’s slate. Our Tournament Model seems to have taken a liking to Wells against the Rays, who is projected for one of the highest ceilings on the slate, a Projected Plus/Minus of +9.57, and what looks to be one of the more suitable park factor ratings on the slate, not to mention a strikeout projection of 6.76, which is the second-highest on the slate.
Playing Baltimore’s arms never feels great, and it shouldn’t. But in the boom/bust nature of GPPs, Wells may be the key that unlocks the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by median projection belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
- JT Realmuto (2) ($4,200)
- Rhys Hoskins (5) ($4,800)
- Nick Castellanos (4) ($3,900)
- Bryce Harper (3) ($5,100)
- Kyle Schwarber (1) ($2,600)
I’ll be honest, when I generated this lineup, the first word to come out was ‘Wow!’
Yes, this is a super expensive stack, costing players more than $26,500 in salary, but finding runs is the name of the game in MLB DFS, and this hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack of the Phillies is begging you to play it.
The Phillies have the third-highest implied total on the slate at 5.5-runs and have a prime matchup against Oakland Athletics pitcher Daulton Jefferies, who last season pitched five games, posting a 3.60 ERA and a 4.80 K per 9. To start the season, the bats in Philadelphia have been hot, and I expect the trend to continue for Sunday’s series finale.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is you can purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
Like the Phillies stack, this five-man Blue Jays stack is loaded with power and of course, comes at a premium with a 25,600 price tag. Hyper-correlated with a 1-2-3-4-5 batting order, the Blue Jays, have the highest implied total on the slate, with Vegas giving them 6-runs against Spencer Howard of the Texas Rangers.
A trade deadline acquisition piece last season, Howard had a respectable 9.42 K per 9 but a terrible 7.43 ERA, 1.27 HR per 9, and a 4.80 SIERA, which may signal his propensity for a blow-up. Toronto should come at higher ownership on the slate, given their ideal matchup, so players stacking these premium bats may need to look elsewhere for a secondary stack or a contrarian option in pitching for unique roster construction.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Bobby Witt Jr. 3B ($2,100 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians (Cal Quantrill)
A leading favorite for American League Rookie of the Year honors, Kansas City Royals third baseman Bobby Witt Jr. projects as the top value on the slate, seeing a Projected Plus/Minus of 4.39. Projected to bat second, Witt has a prime opportunity to see several plate attempts, wedged between Whit Merrifield, who should bat leadoff, and Andrew Benintendi, who should bat third.
Despite a more pitcher-friendly Park Factor Rating (28) for today’s game at Kauffman, the Weather Rating seems favorable for hitters. Temperatures in Kansas City are forecast for the 70s, with the wind blowing out at more than 20 MPH. In ideal conditions, expect the fountains to stay busy, in a prime opportunity for the ball to leave the park.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B ($6,00 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers (Spencer Howard)
As part of the Blue Jays’ high-powered offense, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should also be considered as a one-off play, projecting for the highest ceiling among batters. As mentioned, the Blue Jays have a prime matchup against Spencer Howard, who tends to blow up. The power is there, and Vlad is a prime candidate for an 85% outcome.
Consider choosing different stacks if going with Vlad–he’ll likely be one of the more owned players today.
