Thursday’s MLB DFS main slate features 12 games that lock at 7:05 p.m. ET. There are a lot of familiar names on the slate but the names below stick out the most.
Pitchers
The list of high-prices pitchers on FanDuel is small and they face each other:
Aaron Nola (R) $10,700, PHI @ ATL
Max Fried (L) $9,400, ATL vs PHI
Aaron Nola is pitching like an ace. His 2.05 ERA is supported but a 1.94 Expected Fielding Independent Pitcher (xFIP) rating and 2.46 Expected ERA (xERA) while improving his strikeout percentage to 39.8%. He has recorded three consecutive complete games and wins in each of his last two starts. Wins and quality starts make Nola even more appealing for FanDuel, where he has scored 55 points or more in his last three outings.
Nola faces the Atlanta Braves tonight. The Braves strike out at the third-highest percentage in baseball and pair it with an average walk percentage. Their offense is middle-of-the-road in average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and Offensive WAR. Nola is ranked as the 12th-best pitching option tonight according to the Bales Model. A major component to the lower rating is his lofty price tag relative to the talent available by fading Nola this evening.
I want to use Nola in spots, especially without Braves studs Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies out of the lineup.
Nola is countered by Max Fried of the Braves. Fried may be the second-most expensive pitcher on the slate, but he is $1,300 cheaper and rates worse than Nola on the Bales Model.
Fried is due for regression. His 3.39 xFIP is two runs higher than his ERA, while his xERA is 1.28 runs higher. The Philadelphia Phillies have found their offense and it will keep me away from Fried. The Phillies are top five in all major hitting categories and are just as good against lefties; in those popular hitting categories Philadelphia ranks no worse than eighth. Fried has not allowed a ball to leave the park this season and that will change tonight.
Values
Walker Buehler is the best option on the main slate according to the Bales Model. He is also the highest-priced pitcher on DraftKings. Buehler has not shown why he is expected to be the Dodgers’ ace going forward, but it was encouraging to see him walk one batter in his last outing against the Los Angeles Angels.
If Buehler wants to see success tonight, he will need to get away from his sinker and stick to his cutter and four-seam fastball. A flat sinker might as well be batting practice for offenses, and Buehler is giving up homers at an alarming pace. The Colorado Rockies are slashing .199/.300/.319 against righties on the road in 2020, so Buehler may have a get-right game tonight.
Jake Odorizzi is facing the Kansas City Royals for the third time in as many starts this season. He shook the cobwebs off in his first start before throwing four impressive innings August 15. He is inducing ground balls and showed his strikeout upside and limiting walks. Kansas City’s -9.7 Offensive WAR is 24th in baseball and rank last in walk percentage (7.0).
Adam Plutko is the value play of the night: he is the 18th priced pitcher on FanDuel and 20th on DraftKings while ranking third on the Bales Model pitcher rankings. He faces the Detroit Tigers after a four-game sweep against the Chicago White Sox. Detroit’s hot start to 2020 is a distant memory as they have faded to the bottom in all major offensive categories. Plutko is throwing a slider 13% more than he has over his career, the biggest jump of any of his pitches. He should look to do the same tonight as Detroit averages -0.65 standardized runs against sliders, 18th in MLB.
Fastballs
Robbie Ray rates 6th on the Bales Model but I am torn on using him. He gets a road start in San Francisco, a pitcher’s haven for night games because it is on the bay and it gets chilly. The projected temperature at game time is 68 and should drop as the game goes on. The wind ranges between 10-17 miles per hour and towards left field. Can Ray keep striking out batters and avoid the long ball? Maybe? The Giants hit .300 and have 8 home runs at home against lefties.
Adrian Houser gets the Pittsburgh Pirates and their league-worst -37.0 Offensive WAR. FanDuel and DraftKings priced him higher as such. I am going against the Bales Model and recommending Houser tonight.
I won’t use familiar faces Jon Lester or Dallas Keuchel tonight as they face each other and very good offenses, but it is fun to see the soft-tossing lefties have mirror projections on the Bales Model. Lester projects for 27.43 FanDuel points and a ceiling of 36.3, while Keuchel projects for 27.67 and 36.7.
Notable Stacks
No Rockies stack today! I dig the top projected stack on FanDuel:
Rafael Devers (L)
Xander Bogaerts (R)
J.D. Martinez (R)
Kevin Pillar (R)
Total Salary: $12,500
The Bales Model projects Boston to get theirs against the Baltimore Orioles and John Means, but none of the above players ranks particularly well on the player rater. Kevin Pillar fits the value portion of the stack, but I cannot recommend fading this stack based on price. The next stack is more expensive, but may be one I pair with their starting pitcher everywhere in MLB DFS:
Carlos Santana (S)
Cesar Hernandez (S)
Jose Ramirez (S)
Francisco Lindor (S)
Total: $13,700
A switch-hitting stack! It is okay to pay for this stack because Adam Plutko is a value at pitcher tonight. The Indians face the Tigers at home where they are projected to outscore Detroit 5.5-4.2. All four Indians hitters have five ProTrends betting them, including a high Vegas score, they are projected to win, and score over 4.7 runs.
Other Batters
Miguel Sano leads the C/1B position on FanDuel with six ProTrends. He faces southpaw Danny Duffy in Kansas City tonight. Sano is due for positive regression against lefties. His .167 BABIP paired with a 57.1% hard-hit percentage is a sign of good things to come.
It is not often that Mike Trout is considered a bargain, but the Bales Model has him as a 90th percentile bargain on FanDuel. Trout gets to tee off against Mike Fiers, the second-lowest ranked pitcher on FanDuel using the Bales Model. Fiers ranks last on DraftKings as well.
Austin Barnes has been the better catcher in Los Angeles for the Dodgers, and he gets the opportunity to hit 9th in their vaunted lineup. All Barnes has to do is get on base and be a RBI opportunity to add value at his $2,100 price tag on FanDuel. He also is a cost-saving option on DraftKings ($2,600).
