The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s main slate features nine games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later as teams make a push toward October and the beginning of the last full month of the season.
As of this morning, there looks to be a potential for rain in St. Louis so be sure to keep an eye on the weather.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Corbin Burnes ($9,600) Milwaukee Brewers (-192) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers ace Corbin Burnes jumps to the top of our models Saturday as one of the highest-rated pitchers, despite starting in a less-than-ideal venue of Chase Field. The righty has started 26 games this season, posting a 9-6 record with 2.84 ERA, 30.9% K rate and a 0.98 WHIP as part of the feared Brewers starting rotation–and elite numbers nonetheless. Burnes is projected for 9.05 strikeouts, despite facing an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup with a 3.3-implied run total and a 0.235 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 0.303 wOBA.
Per the Trends tool, when favored on the road, Burnes averages 24.91 actual DraftKings points and a +7.32 Plus/Minus. At SP1, this might not be a spot to overthink, especially with a discounted $9,600 for an elite arm.
Max Scherzer ($10,900) New York Mets (-435) vs. Washington Nationals
The most expensive pitcher on the slate, New York Mets pitcher Max Scherzer looks to be in a prime spot Saturday, coming in as a massive home favorite against his former team, the Washington Nationals.
Mad Max has shown dominance for the Mets this season, posting a 9-4 record in 19 starts, with a 2.27 ERA, 29.6% K rate and a 0.93 WHIP. The Nationals have a 2.3-implied run total and Scherzer should make easy work with a 6.9 K prediction and faces a lineup with a 0.226 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
Like Burnes, Scherzer looks to be a popular option but may be worth the spend-up.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Austin Voth ($5,200) Baltimore Orioles (-225) vs. Oakland Athletics
Priced at a discounted $5,200 on DraftKings, Baltimore Orioles pitcher Austin Voth looks to be a top value on the slate Saturday.
Voth is facing an Oakland Athletics lineup with a 0.294 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 3.3-implied run total. Projected for 5.4 strikeouts, Voth should easily be a fantasy-relevant option given the deep discount on DraftKings. In 12 starts, Voth has a 4-2 record with a 4.48 ERA, 20.3% K rate, and a 1.38 WHIP.
If Voth can minimize the damage from the A’s lineup, he is an easy choice to unlock access to higher-priced stacks.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Dylan Cease ($9,100) Chicago White Sox (-136) vs. Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease could be an overlooked option on Saturday’s slate and projects for one of the highest ceilings. Making 26 starts this season, the righty Cease has a 12-6 record with a 2.27 ERA, a 31.7% K rate, and a 1.12 WHIP. Minnesota should not be an easy matchup, however, implied for 3.6-runs and posting a 0.232 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
Keep Cease in consideration as a viable SP1 option, with slight savings in salary, strikeout potential and win-bonus upside.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Will Smith (4) ($5,500)
- Freddie Freeman (3) ($5,700)
- Justin Turner (5) ($4,500)
- Trea Turner (2) ($6,000)
- Mookie Betts (1) ($6,400)
Implied for 5.2 runs — one of the highest on the slate, the Los Angels Dodgers look to be a top stack Saturday. The powerful Dodgers are facing Padres pitcher Sean Manaea, who has struggled this season, posting a 7-7 record in 24 starts with a 4.90 ERA, a 23% K rate, and a 1.33 WHIP.
The Dodgers are disciplined at the plate, with a 0.223 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 0.333 wOBA, one of the highest on the slate, and should make easy work against an ineffective pitcher
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings. A price tag of $28,100 on DraftKings is a premium price for a team that should generate runs on demand.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT — when generated by projected ceiling — belongs to the Seattle Mariners:
The Mariners bats are an interesting choice and look to be a spend-down to popular options and are implied for a respectable 4.2 runs.
They’re expected to face Xzavion Curry of the Cleveland Guardians, a rookie pitcher who has made one start this season. Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks are a disciplined lineup, posting a 0.231 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 0.325 wOBA and look to have the potential to make easy work of an inexperienced pitcher.
Priced at $25,500 on DraftKings, this stack becomes a somewhat cheap option, which can unlock higher-priced arms.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Juan Soto OF ($5,900 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (Julio Urias)
Removing the Dodgers and Mariners in search of possible one-off plays, San Diego Padres superstar Juan Soto jumps to the top as one of the highest-rated bats in the Tournament Model.
Soto, who is projected to bat second, is slashing .246/.410/.472 with 24 home runs and looks to have a tough matchup against pitcher Juilo Urias, who has made 24 starts this season with a 2.32 ERA, 19.3% K rate, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 14-7 record.
The Padres are implied for 3.5 runs and should rely on Soto to kickstart the scoring. At $5,900 on DraftKings, Soto offers an expensive one-off upside.
Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($6,100 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins (Edward Cabrera)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Atlanta Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. should be in the conversation on Saturday, as he’s projected for the highest ceiling in our models.
The superstar is projected to hit leadoff against Marlins pitcher Edward Cabrera, an ideal matchup for a virtually matchup-proof hitter, who is slashing .273/.366/.413 with 11 home runs.
He’s worth the pay-up.
Nick Madrigal 2B ($2,200 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright)
Chicago Cubs infielder Nick Madrigal projects as the top value on DraftKings in a matchup against Adam Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals. Look for Madrigal to be a one-off play as a near minimum-priced leadoff hitter.
Madrigal should have plenty of opportunities to generate runs for the Cubs, who are implied for 3.2 runs Saturday and should be a fantasy-viable option, slashing .260/.317/.292.
Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes
