The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s main slate features nine games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET to kick-start a weekend of baseball action. Be sure to keep an eye on the weather in New York with rain in the forecast for tonight.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Shane Beiber ($8,800) Cleveland Guardians (-130) at Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Guardians ace Shane Beiber looks to turn things around Saturday against the Minnesota Twins.
A rocky start to the beginning of the season, Beiber had a disastrous outing in a May 7 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. Beiber went 3.1 innings, gave up seven earned runs on eight hits and failed to record a strikeout.
Priced at $8,800 on DraftKings, Bieber comes in as one of the highest-rated pitchers in our Tournament Model. Beiber is projected for 6.35 strikeouts against a Twins lineup that reports a 0.2 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
With a discounted price tag, Bieber has the potential to become a fantasy-relevant option, jump-start his season and return to dominance.
Zac Gallen ($9,800) Arizona Diamondbacks (-155) vs. Chicago Cubs
With weather issues likely affecting the Mets vs. Mariners matchup, we’ll exclude Mets arm Chris Bassitt, which makes Arizona Diamondbacks arm Zac Gallen the most expensive pitcher on the slate.
In five starts, Gallen has a 2-0 record with an impressive 0.95 ERA, 24% strikeout rate and 0.71 WHIP. In his last outing, a 4-0 win over the Colorado Rockies, Gallen threw seven innings, striking out seven batters in a difficult home ballpark in Chase Field.
Saturday’s matchup against the Cubs looks ideal for Gallen, who boasts for a slate-high eight Pro Trends.
Projected for 6.33 strikeouts, Gallen faces a projected Cubs lineup with a 0.302 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is the highest on the slate. Further, despite the batter-friendly ballpark of Chase Field, the Cubs are implied for only 3.5 runs, which is among the lowest team totals on Saturday’s slate.
In a slate without many top-tier options at pitcher, Gallen might be the de-facto SP1.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Jhonathan Diaz ($4,000) Los Angeles Angels (-120) at Oakland Athletics
Cleveland Guardians pitcher Shane Beiber projects as a top value on the slate. However, Angels pitcher Jhonathan Diaz should be in consideration as a top value play as well, given his basement-level price tag ($4,000) on DraftKings.
Diaz, a recent call-up from Triple-A, has made one start this season — a 3-0 win over the Washington Nationals on May 6, striking out four batters in five innings. His projected pitch count (around 70 pitches) might cause some alarm, but Diaz looks to be in an ideal spot. He faces a projected Oakland Athletics lineup with a 0.263 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the highest on the slate.
Even with a four-run implied total from the Athletics, Diaz is projected for 4.97 strikeouts and should easily reach fantasy value against a team with a propensity for striking out. Better still, the near-minimum price tag should open up higher-priced batters and stacks.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Glenn Otto ($7,300) Texas Rangers (-118) vs. Boston Red Sox
In GPPs, comfort should be tossed out the window. Texas Rangers pitcher Glenn Otto fits the bill as a GPP play against the Boston Red Sox.
In three starts, Otto has a 1-0 record with a 3.14 ERA, 21% strikeout rate and 0.98 WHIP and projects for one of the highest ceilings on the slate. Despite a 7-1 win Friday night to open the series, the Red Sox have been slumping as of late, losing series to the Orioles, Angels and White Sox and reporting a 0.244 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
Priced at a digestible $7,300 on DraftKings and projected for 5.22 strikeouts, Otto should certainly be in the conversation, even facing Red Sox power bats in the hitter-friendly venue of Fenway Park.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the Colorado Rockies.
- C.J. Cron (3) ($5,100)
- Ryan McMahon (4) ($4,500)
- Charlie Blackmon (2) ($4,800)
- Randal Grichuk (5) ($4,800)
- Connor Joe (1) ($4,900)
It’s a Coors Field slate and with a 6.2-implied run total, the Colorado Rockies project as a top stack.
A high-priced stack of $24,100, the Rockies look to take advantage of their home field against Kansas City Royals pitcher Carlos Hernandez, who has had a rocky (pun intended) start to the season.
In five starts, Hernandez has a 0-2 record with a 7.15 ERA, 9.3% strikeout rate and 1.90 WHIP. Call it bad luck, but this is not a “get right” spot for Hernandez.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings, and the Rockies’ top five are loaded with power. Even as secondary stacks, look at the Rockies.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT — when generated by projected ceiling — belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
Interestingly, the BAT favors the other side of the Rockies vs. Royals matchup in Coors.
The hyper-correlated 1-2-3-5-6, 5-man stack comes at a discount compared to the Rockies, costing more than $1,000 less. Despite the five-run implied total, the Royals has a tough matchup against German Marquez.
One benefit to the Royals is their 0.213 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the lowest on the slate. Loaded with power the Royals should take full advantage of the ideal venue.
Maybe a game-stack is in order for Saturday’s slate?
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Jose Altuve 2B ($4,900 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) Houston Astros at Washington Nationals (Erick Fedde)
Removing the Royals and Rockies in search of possible one-off plays, Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve jumps to the top as one of the highest-rated bats in the Tournament Model.
Altuve and the dominant bats of the Astros face National pitcher Erick Fedde, who at times has struggled, posting a 2-2 record in six starts, with a 3.90 ERA and a 19.8% strikeout rate.
The Astros have one of the highest wOBA (0.332) and are among the lowest in projected strikeout-per-at-bat average (0.209). Projected to hit leadoff, Altuve, is slashing .250/.345/500 with six home runs.
A word of caution: Be sure to keep an eye on the confirmed lineup; Altuve exited Friday’s matchup after taking a fall.
Juan Soto OF ($5,500 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros (Cristian Javier)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Washington Nationals outfielder Juan Soto should be in the conversation on Saturday, as he is projected for the highest ceiling.
The superstar is projected to hit second, between Cesar Hernandez and Josh Bell, but faces Astros’ arm Cristian Javier, who in six starts has a 2-0 record with a 0.83 ERA and a 30% strikeout rate–a very tough matchup on paper. However, Soto has been known to jumpstarting scoring for the Nationals and should be integral to their success Saturday night.
Rafaek Ortega OF ($2,600 DraftKings, $2,300 FanDuel) Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks (Zac Gallen)
Chicago Cubs outfielder Rafael Ortega projects as the top value on DraftKings, in a tough matchup against Arizona Diamondback pitcher Zac Gallen.
Look for Ortega to be a one-off play which should open up salary relief if playing higher priced stacks in the Royals, Rockies or Astros. Projected to bat leadoff, Ortega should have plenty of opportunity to generate runs, if able to get to Gallen on an off-day in an ideal hitters venue in Chase Field.
